Monthly Archives: July 2019

The Calculation: Why The Social Security COLA Will Sink In 2020

Summary The Social Security Administration uses a complex formula, and an unusual inflation index, to set the annual COLA increase. Once again, the Social Security COLA looks like it will be lower than overall U.S. inflation. (That wasn’t true for … Continue reading

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This Week’s 10-Year TIPS Auction Spotlights Our ‘New Reality’

Summary The real yield is likely to come in around 0.35%, more than 60 basis points below where these yields started the year. The inflation break-even rate was about 1.77% as of Friday. That might seem low, but it is … Continue reading

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U.S. Inflation Rose 0.1% In June, Higher Than Expected

Summary The monthly “headline” inflation number and core inflation for the month and year all came in higher than the consensus forecasts. Overall U.S. inflation is being held down by declining gasoline prices, but core inflation is running at 2.1%, … Continue reading

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U.S. Savings Bonds Are A Surprisingly Attractive Investment Right Now

Summary Both real and nominal yields have plummeted in 2019, with nominal yields on government debt dipping into the negative in Europe and Asia. Returns on I Bonds and EE Bonds still have the same terms that the Treasury set … Continue reading

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