Author Archives: Tipswatch

Summary In a surprise, July inflation came in much higher than the consensus for both all-items and core inflation. Gas prices again were a big factor. The recent surge in inflation now has the Social Security COLA on track for … Continue reading →

Summary The overall TIPS market has had a huge run-up of almost 16% since the bond market turmoil of mid-March. The TIP ETF hit a record high of $126.51 last week, but its one-year performance has been in line with … Continue reading →

Summary There have been 104 auctions of this 9- to 10-year term since 1997 and today’s result was a record low yield, by a large margin. The inflation breakeven rate came in at 1.52%, a reasonable number but higher than … Continue reading →

Summary The real yield for CUSIP 912828ZZ6 could end up around -0.82%, the lowest in the 23-year history of TIPS auctions of this term. Fears of future inflation – spurred by massive monetary and fiscal stimulus programs – should attract … Continue reading →

Summary Both all-items inflation and core inflation rose faster in June than the consensus estimates. Will any of this alter the Federal Reserve’s commitment to ultra-low interest rates? No. The June inflation report offers a glimmer of hope for a … Continue reading →