Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities

‘No surprises’ July inflation report gives the Fed a break

Posted on August 12, 2026 by Tipswatch

Is inflation really slowing? And what does this mean for I Bonds, TIPS and the Social Security COLA?

By David Enna, Tipswatch.com

The July inflation report provides evidence that U.S. inflation is gradually slowing, which should be good news for financial markets and the Federal Reserve.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis in July after falling 0.4% in June, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the last 12 months, the all-items index increased 3.4%, down from 3.5% in June.

Core inflation, which removes food and energy, ran at 0.2% for the month and 2.5% for the year, down from 2.6% from June. All of these numbers matched economist expectations.

While it might appear to most drivers that gasoline prices increased in July as the war in Iran escalated, the BLS reported that gas prices fell 2.9% for the month, after falling 9.5% in June. I’d expect this reflects averaging over the month, so the August report should show an increase.

Gas prices have increased 24.7% over the last year. Here are other items from the report:

Food at home costs decreased 0.1% for the month are up 2.7% for the year.
Egg prices fell 0.5% in July and are down 25.7% for the year.
Lettuce prices fell 16.4% for the month, thanks to the cyclospora outbreak.
Shelter costs increased 0.1% for month, which the BLS said accounted for about two-thirds of the all-items total.
The overall energy index fell 1.5% for the month.
Apparel prices increased 0.1% for the month and 3.9% for the year.
Costs of medical care services increased 0.6% for the month and are up 2.7% for the year.
Airline fares increased 2.2% for the month and are up 25.5% for the year.
Prices for new vehicles rose 0.1% for the month and 0.5% for the year.
Costs of used vehicles increased 0.4% for the month, but are down 1.9% for the year.

Overall, like in June, this is a tame inflation report. While the annual rates of increase remain too high, U.S. inflation appears to be trending lower. The big question: Can this continue through a summer of potential supply shocks from the Mideast? Here is the 12-month trend in all-items and core inflation:

What this means for TIPS and I Bonds

Investors in Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities and Series I Savings Bonds are also interested in non-seasonally adjusted inflation, which is used to adjust principal balances for TIPS and set future interest rates for I Bonds. For July, the BLS set the inflation index at 333.918, a decrease of 0.01% from June.

For TIPS. The July inflation report means that principal balances for TIPS will decline 0.01% in September after falling 0.35% in August. For the 12 months ending in September, principal balances will have increased 3.4%. Here are the new September inflation indexes for all TIPS.

For I Bonds. July marks the fourth month in a six-month string that will determine the I Bond’s new variable rate, to be reset November 1. So far, with two months remaining, inflation has increased 1.12%, which translates to a variable rate of 2.24%. Two months remain. I would guess we will end up with a variable rate of about 3%, down from the current 3.34%. Here are the data so far:

View historical data on my Inflation and I Bonds page.

Social Security COLA

The Social Security cost-of-living adjustment is based on an unusual inflation index – CPI-W – and is determined by averaging the indexes for July, August, and September and comparing that number to the same average for the year before. For July, the BLS set the CPI-W index at 327.104, essentially no higher than the 327.075 recorded for June.

My projection for the 2027 COLA was 3.6%, lower than the number estimated by most other forecasters. We all might be too high, but 3.6% remains possible. Here are the data:

What this means for future interest rates

There seems to be growing support among Federal Reserve hawks for preemptive interest rate increases in coming months. I think the mild July inflation report should slow things down. It’s time to wait and watch: Is inflation truly declining? Is the U.S. labor market softening?

So I would think the Fed has a chance to stay on hold through early fall, at least.

In its morning report, Bloomberg called July inflation “subdued,” and noted:

“The big surprise with a report that had no surprises (all of the data came perfectly in line with the estimates) is that a situation where inflation isn’t reaccelerating, coupled with the most recent, weak jobs report gives the Fed more time to wait,” Chris Zaccarelli, the chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management, said in a note. …

Also this, from Bloomberg economists Anna Wong and Troy Durie:

“July’s CPI report was modest enough to lower chances of a September rate hike, but not low enough to write it off completely. With core CPI matching its five-year low from February, and July payrolls declining, it’s hard to make an urgent case to hike.”

I would guess we will end up seeing at least a minor acceleration in inflation for August and September. But so far, the trend looks relatively mild. Core inflation at 2.5% remains too high, but it is starting to look “normal” in very un-normal times.

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Feel free to post comments or questions below. If it is your first-ever comment, it will have to wait for moderation. After that, your comments will automatically appear. Please stay on topic and avoid political tirades. NOTE: Comment threads can only be three responses deep. If you see that you cannot respond, create a new comment and reference the topic.

David Enna is a financial journalist, not a financial adviser. He is not selling or profiting from any investment discussed. I Bonds and TIPS are not “get rich” investments; they are best used for capital preservation and inflation protection. They can be purchased through the Treasury or other providers without fees, commissions or carrying charges. Please do your own research before investing.

Posted in Federal Reserve, I Bond, Inflation, Investing in TIPS, Savings Bond | Tagged investing, personal-finance, Treasury investments | 15 Comments

The I Bond’s fixed rate is going higher. But how much?

Posted on August 9, 2026 by Tipswatch

A new fixed rate of 1.30% looks like a real possibility.

By David Enna, Tipswatch.com

We’ve seen a fascinating explosion in real yields in 2026 as the war with Iran, inflationary pressures and soaring federal deficits are straining the U.S. Treasury market.

This move higher is significant for investors in Series I Savings Bonds, a Treasury investment with returns pegged to U.S. inflation through a combination of fixed and variable rates:

The I Bond’s fixed rate will never change. Purchases through October 2026 have a fixed rate of 0.90%, which means the return will exceed official U.S. inflation by 0.9% until the I Bond is redeemed or matures in 30 years. A new fixed rate will be set Nov. 1, 2026.
The inflation-adjusted rate (often called the I Bond’s variable rate) changes each six months to reflect the running rate of inflation. That rate is currently 3.34%, annualized, for six months. It will also adjust on Nov. 1, 2026, rolling into effect for all I Bonds, no matter when they were purchased.
The I Bond’s current composite rate is 4.26%, annualized, for a full six months for any bond purchased from May to October 2026.

For I Bond investors, the fixed rate is the most important factor, especially for investments likely to be held for many years. Once purchased, an I Bond holds that fixed rate forever, while the variable rate will change every six months.

The fixed rate math

How is the fixed rate set? There is no announced formula and in theory this decision can be made at the discretion of the Treasury Secretary. However, over the last decade the fixed rate could be accurately forecast using this formula: Apply a ratio of 0.65 to the six-month average real yield of the 5-year TIPS. Here are results of that ratio since 2017:

On Jan. 1, 2026, the 5-year TIPS was yielding 1.46%, but that rate began steadily heading lower, right up to the day before the Iran war began on Feb. 28, 2026, when it closed at 1.11%. Since the launch of war, the 5-year real yield has increased 102 basis points, to 2.13%.

So the rate picture has dramatically changed since the I Bond’s May 1 reset. Because of these elevated 5-year real yields, the fixed rate is almost certainly going to increase above the current 0.90%. Let’s look at a projection, based on 5-year real yields from May 1 to Aug. 8, 2026:

We are just a bit more than halfway through the six-month period from May 1 to Oct. 31. So far, the average 5-year real yield has increased to about 1.84%, which would translate to a new fixed rate of 1.20%. And that projection looks solid if rates continue at elevated levels.

Just a reminder: The Treasury sets the I Bond’s fixed rate to the tenth decimal point, which means that any six-month ratio result of 1.151% or higher will be rounded up to 1.20%, and any ratio result of 1.251% or higher will be rounded to 1.30%. At this point, the current 0.65-ratio of 1.1991% is solidly above the 1.20% trigger.

The current 5-year real yield is 2.13%, as of Friday’s market close.

There are 57 market days remaining before the November 1 reset. In the two calculations above, I projected a rate of 1.20% if the average 5-year real yield falls to 2.00%. But if it continues around 2.10%, the fixed rate will rise to 1.30%.

Conclusion. With 2 1/2 months to go, we are right on the edge of the 1.30% fixed rate. The 1.20% fixed rate looks locked in as long as 5-year real yields remain anywhere near the current average of 1.84%, and the 1.30% rate is highly likely if rates continue at 2.10% or higher.

What about the variable rate?

Because of the recent surge in inflation, I had been expecting the I Bond’s variable rate to also increase from the current 3.34% at the November reset. This is not at all certain, however. Non-seasonally adjusted inflation fell 0.35% in June, a big surprise. The July inflation report, to be released Wednesday, could also be rather tame, with all-items projections hovering around 0.1%.

We will get a lot better idea after that July inflation report is released. I will be posting an analysis Wednesday morning.

Is there an investing strategy?

Yes. If you haven’t yet purchased I Bonds up to the $10,000 per person per year limit, hold off on any investment. The November fixed-rate reset is going to be an improvement over the current 0.90%.

If you are like me and already purchased up to the limit, there will be opportunities to use the still-existing gift-box option after the November reset, for people with a trusted partner. Plus, the new rate will be available to everyone from January to April 2027.

I will be writing about this topic often as we get closer to the November reset.

Qualifications

The projection presented in this article is based on 10 years of Treasury history in setting the I Bond’s fixed rate. But the Treasury could change course at any time. So far, in both of President Trump’s terms, the rate formula has remained accurate.

Keep in mind that the Treasury actually saves money by lending to I Bond investors at a real yield of 0.90% or 1.30% as opposed to the current 5-year real yield of 2.13% or 30-year real yield of 2.96%. Plus, savings bonds account for a minuscule portion of Treasury debt.

• Confused by I Bonds? Read my Q&A on I Bonds

• Let’s ‘try’ to clarify how an I Bond’s interest is calculated

• Inflation and I Bonds: Track the variable rate changes

• I Bonds: Here’s a simple way to track current value

• I Bond Manifesto: How this investment can work as an emergency fund

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Posted in I Bond, Inflation, Investing in TIPS, Savings Bond, TreasuryDirect | Tagged investing, personal-finance, Treasury investments | 52 Comments

Federal Reserve is losing credibility, at the worst possible time

Posted on July 30, 2026 by Tipswatch

By David Enna, Tipswatch.com

The new Federal Reserve chairman, Kevin Warsh, stood in front of reporters Wednesday afternoon and said:

For some households, businesses, and market professionals five years of high inflation have left a mistaken impression that’s hard to shake, that the Fed’s implicit inflation target was somehow above 2 percent. Let me reiterate, there is no soft inflation target. There is no soft implicit target, not on this committee’s watch. There’s only a target, and it’s 2 percent.

That seems pretty straightforward, ironically from the man who said as recently as June 17, “I tend to focus on the left of the decimal point. Well, the two is the left of the decimal point.” In other words, a month ago he wasn’t too concerned about the number to the right of the decimal point.

As was expected, the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee held short-term interest rates in the same range — 3.50% to 3.75% — they have been since Dec. 10, 2025. In the meantime, U.S. inflation has increased from 2.7% in December to 3.5% in June.

The “hold” decision was expected, but Warsh’s vague comments on Fed strategy spooked the stock and bond markets. Stocks fell sharply and longer-term Treasury yields rose to 19-year highs.

Warsh, who has said he wants to limit forecasts and communications from the Fed, noted the sharp increases in bond yields over the last six weeks, saying:

Nominal and real yields are materially higher across the Treasury curve. In fact, some of the increases in market interest rates between FOMC meetings are among the most significant in the last two decades. … Even while at some level we haven’t done much in 42 days, the markets have done quite a bit.

Prices reacted in real time to incoming information, and the reduction in forward guidance may have been a factor. … This is, in my view, a change for the better, and we’re just getting started.

In other words, let the bond market set the way. Fine. But it isn’t the lack of communication that is causing bond-market jitters, it is an apparently endless war with Iran, massive federal deficits, rising energy prices and huge corporate bond-market borrowing by AI-driven businesses.

The Federal Reserve controls the short-term end of the bond market, where the U.S. Treasury has been shifting its borrowing in recent months because the short-term rate of about 3.75% is a lot more appealing than a 10-year note at 4.67%.

Take a look at this chart. After recent decisions to cut short-term interest rates, the longer-end of the Treasury curve has risen, sharply. The bond market is questioning the Fed’s credibility. In fact, I think an increase in short-term rates would cause longer-term yields to fall, not rise.

Traditionally, the yield of the 2-year note (currently 4.22%) is a good indicator of the direction for short-term rates, now 3.73%. That implies the market expects two 25-basis-point rate increases in coming months. But can Warsh deliver even one before the mid-term elections?

Just as the news conference was ending, President Trump was asked about the decision to hold short-term rates steady. He said:

Kevin’s fantastic. He’s a brilliant guy, smart. I know he’d love to see lower interest rates, but he’s got a board, and it’s a political board, and they want to keep rates up.

Trump didn’t do Warsh any favors. This harms Warsh’s credibility and calls Fed independence into question. But I think the fact that there were three dissenters in the Fed decision to hold was a good thing. All three wanted a rate increase. This sends the markets a message that there is strong debate on the open market committee.

Many times, Warsh delivers strong and inspiring statements on price stability, and then drifts into new ways of measuring inflation, replacing the Fed’s standard PCE index as a basis for rate decisions:

We’re going to deliver 2 percent inflation, and not a whisper more, but to achieve that I’m looking at a broader set of inflation data than PCE. So without sort of fully revealing my cards, I’m trying to understand, like my colleagues, what’s the underlying generalized change in prices that are happening in the economy. …

And so, if you would hear a message from me, yes, I care about what the PCE prints are. I care about what the contributions are from CPI and everything else. But my lens is broader than that.

This vagueness led Fed-watcher Claudia Sahm to write a post asking: “2% of what?” She wrote:

A half hour into the press conference, Paul Wiseman of the Associated Press asked the question:

WISEMAN: When you talk about the 2 percent inflation target, what measure are you relying on?

WARSH: Yeah, so, I’ll give two answers. First let me give the proper standard answer, the Federal Reserve every January outlines a statement of purposes and strategy, and in that strategy document, which I believe was dated January of this year, it describes a measure of PCE inflation as the — as the objective function there. I have enough of my — so that’s our number, we’re sticking with it. … Who knows come after next January what we might say about strategy. I suspect the task forces might have something to add.

Sahm concludes, “Warsh is using PCE as the yardstick now, but he suggested he might pick a different inflation measure in January 2027. Choosing a new inflation measure that reads 2% is not achieving price stability; it’s destroying the Fed’s credibility.”

By the way, this is what PCE and core PCE look like as of the June 2026 report. Both remain above 3%, well off the Fed target:

This is what Warsh said about the difficulty of the task ahead:

We’ve got no magic wand. This isn’t something that we’re going to be able to carry out in days or weeks. …I want to leave you with the optimism of a new central banker that we’re committed as ever to deliver, and to offer an assurance we will.

The path ahead

While Warsh was speaking, the stock market began tanking, the dollar weakened and longer-term bond yields rose. “This is a classic central-bank credibility shock,” Mark Cabana, rates strategist at Bank of America, told the Wall Street Journal. And he added this key point:

“If you actually want to get long-end rates down, there’s an argument that you need to raise front-end rates right now in order to establish that credibility.”

FYI, Bank of America is projecting three rate hikes this year. My opinion: Won’t happen — not in a mid-term election year with a president ready to pounce and lay blame for any negative development.

I think Warsh will be fine in the long term, when he finds the right measure of openness and guidance. But this is a very difficult time.

The war with Iran, which seems to be broadening into a regional conflict, is a massively unpredictable factor. The Fed can do nothing to control rising oil prices and the shock that can spread across the economy.

This is very close to a crisis, and time for more specific communication from the Fed, not less. Saying nothing, even while talking 30 minutes to reporters, is not going to work.

Note: I won’t be writing this weekend. Attending a family reunion.

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Posted in Federal Reserve, I Bond, Inflation, Investing in TIPS | Tagged economy, investing, personal-finance, Treasury investments | 57 Comments

Forecasting Social Security’s 2027 COLA: My guess is 3.6%

Posted on July 26, 2026 by Tipswatch

AI image with prompt “Social Security Cola and glass of ice.” Perchance.org

By David Enna, Tipswatch.com

Each July, since 2017, I have been forecasting the next year’s Social Security cost-of-living adjustment. Over the years, I have learned one thing: It’s important to be humble.

This is a nearly impossible task, combining an obscure inflation index, a weird quarter-year average, and summer months of traditionally volatile inflation. And this summer, the inflation picture is hidden in deep fog, making any projection “a wild guess.”

COLA basics

It is important to understand the needlessly complex way the COLA is calculated, which is rarely explained in mainstream media.

The index. The Social Security Administration does not use the standard measure of inflation that you see reported each month. Instead it uses CPI-W, the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, which often runs slightly lower than the standard CPI-U. See this.
The time period. Instead of using a specific annual rate of inflation, the SSA looks at an average of CPI-W indexes for three months, July to September, and compares that to the average from a year earlier. In 2025, for example, the three-month average was 317.265, an increase of 2.8% over the average for 2024. So the COLA for 2026 payments was set at 2.8%.
The summer months. Inflation can be notoriously volatile in the months of July to September. We got a hint of that when the CPI-U index for June fell by 0.35% because of plummeting gas prices (which have since mostly reversed). We’ve had at least one deflationary third-quarter month in 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2019, and 2022. In other words: expect anything.

The projection

Now that you know why my forecast is likely to be wrong, let’s get on with it.

The June inflation report, released July 14, set the baseline for this COLA calculation. For June, the BLS set the CPI-W index at 333.952, an increase of 3.5% over the last year. So does that mean the Social Security COLA will end up being 3.5%? No, that is the baseline, but the actual COLA calculation will be based on the average of CPI-W indexes for July to September.

In this chart, I have provided six potential monthly inflation scenarios for the July to September period — an average of 0.0% to 0.5% per month — and then calculated the effect on the eventual Social Security COLA.

Before the surprising June “deflation” report — reflecting tumbling gas prices — I would have predicted flat overall inflation for June and then inflation of about 0.3% a month over the July to September period. That would have raised the COLA to a number around 4.0%.

June deflation skewed the equation lower. However, since July 1, the national average gas price has increased from about $3.87 on June 30 to $4.11 today, up about 6.2%. We are likely to see continued increases through the end of the month. That in itself would result in about a 0.18% increase in all-items inflation.

The Cleveland Fed, however, is currently nowcasting an all-items inflation rate of only 0.04% for July. (And that is up from -0.14% about 10 days ago.) I don’t rely on this forecast to be accurate, but it is worth considering. It would seem to indicate a fairly small CPI-W increase for July, possibly ramping up in August and September.

It’s also important to look at how much CPI-W inflation increased a year ago for the months of July to September, since this sets up the end-game calculation for the COLA.

Remember that the June 2026 baseline was an increase of 3.5% in CPI-W. For that number to hold, inflation will have to average at least about 0.20% a month for the next three months. That could happen — we could a 2026 pattern similar to 2025, resulting in a COLA of 3.5%.

For my forecast, I am going to go slightly higher: 3.6%.

What others are saying

I wrote everything up to this point without looking at any other COLA forecasts — it’s my work, right or wrong. Now let’s take a look at others …

Right away, one “fun” forecast came on June 12 from CNBC: 4.7%. That followed the May inflation report, when CPI-W was up 0.7% for the month and 4.4% for the year. Then, after the release of the June report, CNBC followed up that forecast on July 14 with a lower estimate: 3.7% to 3.8%.

AARP in a July 14 article forecast an increase of 3.6% for 2027, matching my prediction.

A group I highly respect, the Senior Citizens League, a week ago was projecting an increase of 3.8% for 2027. The SCL puts a lot of research behind its forecast, so it has credibility. (Last year, the League predicted an increase of 2.7%. My prediction was 2.8% … exactly on target. I got lucky.)

What this all means

The SCL says the average monthly payment for retired workers in June 2026 was $2,084. An increase of 3.6% in 2027 payments would push the monthly amount up about $75 to $2,159.

But keep in mind that any increase in the COLA will be partially offset by rising Medicare costs in 2027. The COLA for 2026 was up 2.8% but most Medicare costs increased about 9.7%. More on that here.

SSA COLA versus CPI

The combination of using CPI-W and the smoothing effect of a three-month average sometimes results in the Social Security COLA being lower than annual CPI. The SCL has lobbied for years to replace CPI-W with CPI-E, an index that more accurately reflects costs faced by older Americans.

For benefits in 2026 the COLA was 2.8%, trailing CPI-U at 3.0%.

More information:

— Does The Social Security COLA Shortchange Seniors?

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Posted in Inflation, Medicare, Social Security | Tagged personal-finance | 36 Comments

10-year TIPS auction gets real yield of 2.438%, a great result for investors

Posted on July 23, 2026 by Tipswatch

By David Enna, Tipswatch.com

The Treasury’s auction today of a new 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Security, CUSIP 91282CRE3, generated a real yield to maturity of 2.438%, the highest at auction for this term since October 2008.

Investor demand appeared to be weak. The bid-to-cover ratio was a lukewarm 2.30 and the “when-issued” prediction used by bond traders was for a real yield of 2.41%. The higher auction result indicates weak demand.

But for investors … this was an excellent auction. Earlier Thursday, a similar TIPS was trading on the secondary market with a real yield of 2.38%. That rose to 2.41% as tensions continued building in the Mideast. The auction result of 2.438% indicates tensions continue, as indicated by sharp declines in both stocks and bonds today.

Definition: The “real yield to maturity” of a TIPS is its yield above future U.S. inflation, over the term of the TIPS. So a real yield of 2.438% means an investment in this TIPS would provide a return that exceeds official U.S. inflation by 2.438% for 10 years.

Global tensions, along with massive debt-issuance needs by the U.S. government and AI-building corporations, have been pushing both nominal and real yields higher in recent weeks. Both the 20-year and 30-year TIPS are inching toward 3% real yields today.

CUSIP 91282CRE3 gets a coupon rate of 2.375%, the highest for this term since a 10-year auction on July 12, 2007, with a coupon rate of 2.625%.

Here is the year-to-date trend in the 10-year real yield. Notice the sharp upward path (and also that data for this chart ended on Tuesday, below today’s auction result):

Pricing

Because the coupon rate (2.375%) was set below the auctioned real yield (2.438%), this TIPS sold at a discounted unadjusted price of 99.444895. In addition, it will carry an inflation index of 1.00325 on the settlement date of July 31. With that information, we can calculate the cost of a $10,000 par value investment at this auction:

Par value: $10,000.
Principal purchased on settlement date: $10,000 x 1.00325 = $10,032.50
Cost of investment: $10,032.50 x 0.99444895 = $9,976.81.
+ Accrued interest of $10.36.

In summary, an investor paid $9,976.81 for $10,032.50 on the settlement date, and from that point forward will earn accruals matching future inflation plus an annual coupon rate of 2.375%. The accrued interest will be returned at the first coupon payment on Jan. 15.

Inflation breakeven rate

At the auction’s close, the nominal 10-year Treasury note was trading with a yield of 4.70%, giving this TIPS an inflation breakeven rate of 2.26%, lower than the most recent auctions of this term. This means the TIPS will out-perform the nominal Treasury if inflation averages more than 2.26% over the next 10 years. Over the last 10 years, ending in June, inflation has averaged 3.3%.

Here is the year-to-date trend in the 10-year inflation breakeven rate, showing a surprising trend lower even amid the pressures of war and oil-supply disruptions:

Thoughts

One factor to remember is that this new TIPS is going to get hit with a principal decline of 0.35% in the month of August, based on the decline in June’s non-seasonally adjusted inflation. We can be sure that was factored into today’s auction. However, that trend could quickly reverse in future months if oil prices keep climbing, an inflationary effect that could spread across the economy.

Overall, I’d say this auction was extremely positive for investors. Yes, real yields could continue climbing higher. But a hold-to-maturity investor is assured of outpacing inflation by 2.438% over the next 10 years. That is very attractive for this term.

This TIPS will have reopening auctions on Sept. 17 and again in November, with the date not yet set. Here are auction results for the 9- to 10-year term over the last four years: