Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities

Energy shock sends U.S. inflation to a three-year high

Posted on May 12, 2026 by Tipswatch

By David Enna, Tipswatch.com

The lingering war in the Mideast, and its oil-price shock, sent U.S. seasonally-adjusted inflation 0.6% higher in April and pushed the annual rate to 3.8%, its highest level since May 2023, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.

Core inflation rose 0.4% for the month and 2.8% for the year — both numbers higher than expectations.

Economists expected an ugly report for April, but this was a bit uglier than forecast. Gasoline costs were a key factor, of course, rising 5.4% in the month after soaring 21.2% in March. Gas prices are now up 28.4% over the last year. The BLS said energy costs accounted for 40% of the all-items increase.

Shelter costs rose 0.6% for the month, a high number that was boosted by April survey data replacing missing data for October 2025. For October, when no data were collected, BLS set shelter inflation at 0.0%, obviously too low. This report begins to bring annual inflation back into line. Did shelter costs truly rise 0.6%? Probably not.

Also in the report:

Food at home costs increased a disturbing 0.7% in April, after falling 0.2% in March. The annual rate is now 2.9%.
Costs of fruits and vegetables were up 1.8% for the month and 6.1% for the year.
Beef prices rose 2.7% for the month.
Apparel costs rose 0.6% for the month and 4.2% for the year.
Airline fares were up 2.8% for the month and are now up 20.7% for the year.
Costs of new vehicles fell 0.2% for the month and are up only 0.2% for the year.
Costs of used cars and trucks were flat for the month.
Costs of medical care services were flat but up 3.2% for the year.

Although gasoline and shelter dominated this April report, there were many signs of inflation creeping across the economy — food, airline fares, household furnishings, apparel, etc. The result is this very scary chart:

What this means for TIPS and I Bonds

Investors in Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities and Series I Savings Bonds are also interested in non-seasonally adjusted inflation, which is used to adjust principal balances for TIPS and set future interest rates for I Bonds. For April, the BLS set the inflation index at 333.020, an increase of 0.85% over the March number.

For TIPS. The April report means that principal balances for all TIPS will rise 0.85% in June after rising 1.05% in March. These are gaudy numbers, but will be balanced off later in the year when non-seasonally-adjusted inflation runs lower than the seasonally-adjusted version. Here are the new June Inflation Indexes for all TIPS.

For I Bonds. April is the first of a six-month string that will determine the I Bond’s new variable rate, which will be reset November 1. We can’t draw any conclusions from this one-month 0.85% increase, but I can say it is the highest April number over the last 14 years I have been tracking this data.

View historical data on my Inflation and I Bonds page.

What this means for future interest rates

We can be certain the Federal Reserve, even under Kevin Warsh’s new leadership, will not be cutting short-term interest rates until this energy shock settles down and we can see the lasting results.

With inflation surging, should the Fed be raising interest rates? Also not likely, especially if the U.S. economy begins slowing down under the weight of energy costs. So I am thinking we are in a period of uneasy stability for short-term rates.

From today’s Bloomberg report:

Even if the current ceasefire holds and the Strait of Hormuz reopens soon, economists anticipate higher costs are likely to persist in the months ahead as oil output normalizes and shipping flows recover. …

The FOMC is likely to be concerned by renewed signs of food inflation accelerating, given the risk that higher gasoline and food prices together will further boost households’ inflation expectations.

And the Wall Street Journal:

The April report is the latest sign that the rate cuts that markets were pricing in at the start of the year are no longer a 2026 story. … Now, the policy debate within the Fed has shifted away from when to cut rates and toward when to start signaling that a rate hike is as likely as a rate cut.

It’s possible we could see inflation begin to stabilize in coming months, while remaining in a range around 4.0%. That is not the set-up for cuts in interest rates. And once again, we can see the value in investing in inflation protection.

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Feel free to post comments or questions below. If it is your first-ever comment, it will have to wait for moderation. After that, your comments will automatically appear. Please stay on topic and avoid political tirades. NOTE: Comment threads can only be three responses deep. If you see that you cannot respond, create a new comment and reference the topic.

David Enna is a financial journalist, not a financial adviser. He is not selling or profiting from any investment discussed. I Bonds and TIPS are not “get rich” investments; they are best used for capital preservation and inflation protection. They can be purchased through the Treasury or other providers without fees, commissions or carrying charges. Please do your own research before investing.

Posted in Federal Reserve, I Bond, Inflation, Investing in TIPS | Tagged economy, investing, personal-finance, Treasury investments | 17 Comments

I filled out the top end of my TIPS ladder last week

Posted on May 10, 2026 by Tipswatch

By David Enna, Tipswatch.com

One morning last week on Bloomberg, a fixed-income analyst was asked about the effect of a 5% nominal yield on a 30-year Treasury bond. He said: “Then you’ll see bond investors attacking like seagulls in Finding Nemo.” (See Nemo video)

I must have seagull instincts. A 30-year nominal cracking 5% doesn’t particularly interest me, but I was curious about real yields for the top end of my ladder of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, years 2040 to 2043.

So I flocked in. When I built this ladder, mostly in late summer/fall of 2023, I didn’t quite fill out the years 2041 to 2043, mainly because of very high existing inflation accruals on those TIPS, which means buying a lot of additional principal.

In mid-April and then last week, I completed the top end. I thought it would be helpful for me to explain how each transaction worked.

April 14: CUSIP 912810QP6

This TIPS matures Feb. 15, 2041. I own one portion at TreasuryDirect (bought at the original 2011 auction with a real yield of 2.190%) and another portion in a traditional IRA, bought in fall 2023 with real yields of around 2.20%.

Par value: $7,000
Coupon rate: 2.125%
Inflation factor: 1.4885
Adjusted principal: $10,419.50
Price: 98.27343
Cost of investment: $10,239.60
Real yield to maturity: 2.263%

For this purchase, I was looking to add $10,000 to 2041’s accrued principal, bringing it to my target level for each year of the ladder. Because of the large inflation accrual, I placed a par-value order for $7,000 to get the result of $10,419.50 in adjusted principal, at a cost of $10,239.60.

I like this TIPS, which I will hold to maturity, because I appreciate having a 2.125% coupon rate creating cash flow through the next 15 years. The next two TIPS don’t have that same coupon-rate advantage, however.

May 5: CUSIP 912810QV3

This TIPS matures Feb. 15, 2042.

Par value: $8,000
Coupon rate: 0.750%
Inflation factor: 1.448665
Adjusted principal: $11,589.20
Price: 77.57812
Cost of investment: $8,990.68
Real yield to maturity: 2.475%

I spent $8,990.68 to add $11,589.20 in principal, bringing the total to my goal. The yearly cash flow isn’t great at 0.750%, but this is the way it works — there is only one TIPS maturing in 2042. This is the only option. The real yield to maturity of 2.475% was well above my original 2023 purchase at 2.105%.

May 5: CUSIP 912810RA8

This TIPS matures Feb. 15, 2043.

Par value: $10,000
Coupon rate: 0.625%
Inflation factor: 1.42376
Adjusted principal: $14,237.60
Price: 74.14843
Cost of investment: $10,556.96
Real yield to maturity: 2.525%

This TIPS had the biggest gap to my yearly target amount, so I was looking to add $14,000 in principal, which required purchasing $10,000 par value at a cost of $10,556.96. The real yield of 2.525% was well above my 2023 purchase at 2.203%.

Deflation risk?

I get a lot of feedback from readers who are very resistant to purchasing inflation-adjusted principal above par value, even at a discount. The reason: A TIPS is guaranteed to return only par value at maturity, and that means any amount above par value is exposed to risk of deflation, meaning principal would decline.

Yes, it is a risk. But as I noted in this article, “Don’t over-think the potential threat of deflation,” the risk is much greater short-term than long-term.

Since 1971, the lowest average annual inflation for any 5-year period was 1.4%, for the 5 years ending in both 2017 and 2018. For 10-year periods, the lowest was 1.6%, for the years ending in 2017. For a 30-year period, the lowest was 2.2%, for the years ending in 2020.

So if you are buying a TIPS on the secondary market with a high inflation index and 15 years remaining to maturity, you can be fairly confident you won’t be struck by a 15-year period of deflation, eating away at your above-par investment.

Since 1971, there has not been a single deflationary year ending in December. The lowest inflation rate was 0.1% in 2008.

And keep in mind that every single TIPS you are holding at the moment has an inflation accrual above par value.

Sense of completion

These are fairly small investments, not life-changing in any way. The three purchases will allow me to focus on future purchases of TIPS maturing in 2037 to 2038.

Last week, I had an interesting question from a reader:

In deciding upon the ending year for your target range do you include additional years your beneficiary may hold the account after your own death? I am currently thinking for TIPS held in a Roth wrapper account that 10 years beyond my expected death would be a reasonable year to select and that a 10 year rolling TIPS ladder could be a great fit and allow the beneficiary to hold all the TIPS in the Roth account to maturity if they wish.

I can’t argue with that premise, as long as the beneficiary is a responsible person who could take directions and understand how TIPS work. My wife and I have no children, so beneficiaries aren’t a great concern.

Will I live to that last maturity in 2043, when I will be just months from 90? It’s certainly possible, but maybe not likely. I definitely think my wife could live to 90 and she has financial smarts. But around age 90, who wants to be managing a TIPS ladder?

Let’s face it: TIPS are a complex and intimidating investment. I was talking to a Wall Street Journal reporter a week ago who told me that a co-worker, very skilled at financial journalism, doesn’t get TIPS at all. We laughed. But that’s the norm. I hope this article provides helpful information on purchasing TIPS on the secondary market.

The complicated nature of TIPS is why a lot of sophisticated investors prefer I Bonds, despite the lower real yield. I Bonds have advantages of tax-deferral, rock-solid deflation protection, and a flexible maturity. They can never go down in value, unlike a TIPS. I Bonds and TIPS make a good combination.

Here is the Wall Street Journal video:

• Now is an ideal time to build a TIPS ladder

• Confused by TIPS? Read my Q&A on TIPS

• TIPS in depth: Understand the language

• TIPS on the secondary market: Things to consider

• TIPS investor: Don’t over-think the threat of deflation

• Upcoming schedule of TIPS auctions

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Posted in Inflation, Investing in TIPS, Retirement, TreasuryDirect | Tagged investing, personal-finance, Treasury investments | 27 Comments

Treasury holds I Bond fixed rate at 0.90%; composite rate rises to 4.26%

Posted on April 30, 2026 by Tipswatch

I Bonds remain an attractive investment for capital preservation.

By David Enna, Tipswatch.com

The Treasury announced this morning it is holding the fixed rate of the U.S. Series I Savings Bond at 0.90%, the rate in effect since since November 2025. This decision sets the I Bond’s six-month composite rate at 4.26% for purchases from May to October 2026.

This is exactly as I predicted, which means the Trump administration is carrying forward the basis of a decade-long formula for determining the fixed rate. That is very good news for I Bond investors.

An I Bond pays interest based on a semi-annual inflation rate (in this case 1.67% from October 2025 to March 2026) and a fixed rate (which remains at 0.90%). Here is how the Treasury combines the two rates to get a composite rate of 4.26%:

The variable rate

The inflation-adjusted rate (often called the I Bond’s variable rate) is now 3.34%. That rate will apply to all I Bonds ever issued, with the starting date depending on the original month of purchase. I Bonds purchased in April will get an annualized composite rate of 4.03% for six months, and then 4.26% for six months beginning in October.

The variable rate of 3.34% means that even I Bonds from past years with fixed rates of 0.0% will earn 3.34% for six months, a yield on a par with high-quality money market funds.

Here are the inflation numbers used to determine the variable rate:

The fixed rate

Here is the formula — devised by Boglehead geniuses — I have been using to forecast the Treasury’s fixed-rate decision: Apply a ratio of 0.65 to the average real yield of the 5-year TIPS over the last six months. This formula has worked, without fail, for 13 fixed-rate resets since November 2017. it is reassuring to see past practices continued.

The fixed rate is crucial for I Bond investors because it creates the real yield over inflation. A fixed rate of 0.90% means an I Bond will out-perform future inflation by 0.90%. This is a solid fixed rate, in my opinion, and it means your investment can continue to surpass official U.S. inflation for as long as you hold the I Bond, up to 30 years.

The composite rate

Because the fixed rate held at 0.90%, I Bonds purchased in April (too late for that now) will have a full-year return of 4.16%, combining six months of 4.03% and six of 4.26%. I Bonds purchased any time from May to October will earn six months of 4.26%, and then an undetermined composite rate based on the next rate reset on November 1.

This annualized yield of 4.26% is highly attractive in today’s market for safe investments, but keep in mind that an I Bond has to be held for 1 year and then any redemption before 5 years will lose the last three months of interest. In my opinion, I Bond investors should be looking to hold for 5 years and then cash in when they need the money.

FYI: Today’s update from the Treasury continues to carry the purchase limit of $10,000 per person per calendar year. However, it is possible to add to your holdings through gift-box, trusts, or business-owner strategies.

EE Bonds

The Treasury set the fixed rate for Series EE Bonds at 2.40% for purchases from May to October. That is down from 2.50% for purchases through April. After 20 years, EE Bonds automatically double the original purchase amount, which creates an effective return of 3.53% if held for 20 years. Treasury says:

For EE bonds you buy now, we guarantee that the bond will double in value in 20 years, even if we have to add money at 20 years to make that happen.

I suspect the Treasury gets very little investor support for EE Bonds. You can do better with short-term investments (3.75% on the 1-year T-bill) and better with long-term investments (4.97% on the 20-year Treasury note).

I Bonds remain attractive

New investors through October 2026 will be getting a six-month annualized return of 4.26%, better than the current market for short-term Treasury bills. I remain a fan of and advocate for I Bonds. I bought my 2026 allocation in April.

I Bonds work well as a secondary emergency fund, constantly adjusting to inflation. There are no state income taxes, federal taxes are deferred, the maturity date is flexible, and the value of the investment can never decline with “market trends.” You won’t get rich, but this is a strong investment for preserving capital.

If you didn’t buy in April. No problem. This was a “toss-up” decision and now you can buy in May (later in the month is wise) or better yet, just wait it out until October to decide on a purchase. On October 14, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September inflation report, which will set in stone the next variable rate. And by that point we will have a pretty good idea of the next fixed rate. You’ll have a two-week period to make a decision.

If you did buy in April. If you bought your full 2026 allocation before today, you can sit back and await the November rate decision. Whatever that is, it will be available through April 2027, so the purchase cap will reset on January 1. Or … you could be daring and jump into the gift-box loophole.

For the nerds

Here is the entire history of the I Bond’s fixed rate:

And here is the variable rate history:

• Confused by I Bonds? Read my Q&A on I Bonds

• Let’s ‘try’ to clarify how an I Bond’s interest is calculated

• Inflation and I Bonds: Track the variable rate changes

• I Bonds: Here’s a simple way to track current value

• I Bond Manifesto: How this investment can work as an emergency fund

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Posted in Cash alternatives, I Bond, Inflation, Savings Bond, Treasury Bills, TreasuryDirect | 37 Comments

TreasuryDirect, ditch the ‘gift box’ and raise the I Bond purchase cap

Posted on April 26, 2026 by Tipswatch

My solution: Double the purchase cap to at least $20,000 a year.

By David Enna, Tipswatch.com

Last week, TreasuryDirect again sent emails asking holders of savings bonds in gift boxes to deliver them as quickly as possible. I have written about this in the past (here, here, and here) but this email seems to step up the urgency.

The gift box program is used almost exclusively by investors in Series I Savings Bonds, a highly attractive, very safe inflation-linked bond. For more on gift box basics, read this from TheFinanceBuff.com.

I didn’t receive the email, because I delivered all our gift box I Bonds in 2024, the year they were purchased. But readers have sent me the text (you can read the full email and explanation here). Highlight:

Dear TreasuryDirect Customer,

It’s time for some spring cleaning! That includes clearing out your TreasuryDirect gift box by delivering purchased gift bond(s) to your intended recipient. We encourage any TreasuryDirect customers with undelivered gift bonds to deliver them promptly after purchasing so your recipient can access and manage their gift now. …

While you can only deliver one gift bond at a time, there is no limit to the total amount a recipient can receive. However, once they have received $10,000, they should not purchase additional savings bonds that year because gift amounts are applied towards the purchase limit.

Note the wording here: 1) You can deliver only one set at a time, 2) but you can deliver as many individual sets as you want, at any time, and 3) after the delivery, the recipient will not be able to purchase additional savings bonds that year.

In other words, the recipient must make any traditional I Bond purchase — up to $10,000-per-year purchase cap — before receiving the gift box deliveries. After the purchase, the door is wide open for deliveries of unlimited amounts.

This policy, which I Bonds investors have known about anecdotally, appears to create a giant loophole and allows investors with a trusted partner to buy and deliver unlimited I Bonds in one year, one month, even one week.

TreasuryDirect has created an FAQ on the gift box program, which more or less clarifies implications of the email:

Is there a limit to how many gift bonds I can deliver to recipient(s)?

You can only deliver one gift bond at a time. There is no limit to the amount a recipient can receive; however, once they have received $10,000, they should not purchase additional savings bonds that year because gift amounts are applied towards their purchase limit.

Can my recipient cash out gift bonds over the annual purchase limit once they are deposited into their account?

There is no limit to the amount of bonds a recipient can cash out from their TreasuryDirect account, regardless of how the bonds were acquired. Bonds can only be cashed out if it has been at least one year since the bond was purchased.

Is there a deadline for delivering gift bonds?

Delivering gift bonds proactively prepares you for upcoming enhancements and enables your recipient to experience the full benefit of your gift.

Is delivering my gift bonds mandatory?

You are encouraged to deliver gift bonds now to ensure you are prepared for coming enhancements and so your recipient can experience the full benefit of the gift bond.

What happens if I don’t deliver my gift bond(s)?

Gift bond recipients are the sole legal owners as soon as the bonds are purchased, so holding undelivered gift bonds introduces potential complications. While no changes are currently being made to the gifting process, delivering your gifts now reduces the risk of possible issues in the future.

Will there be changes to the gift bond program or is it being eliminated?

Future changes to the gift bond program are still being determined. However, there is no impact to your participation at this time. Stay tuned as more information becomes available on how we’re enhancing your customer experience.

My interpretation

For well over a year, TreasuryDirect has been hinting at major changes to the gift box program and possibly its entire savings bond purchasing system. This email steps up the urgency with a plea to clear out all gift box savings bonds as quickly as possible.

At the same time, it opens the door to “abuse” of the system by allowing unlimited gift box purchases and immediate deliveries. OK … it really isn’t abuse since the Treasury is clearly allowing it as long as deliveries are made quickly (there is a 5-day waiting period). With this plea, Treasury has backed its way into an unintended consequence.

The urgency is strange since Treasury has been hinting at upcoming changes for 18 months, even before President Trump’s election in November 2024. Did the administration turnover delay the changes? Are they now ready to roll out?

A bit of history

Investors never really noticed the gift box program until fall of 2022, when the I Bond had a variable rate of 9.62% and was about to transition to a rate of 6.48%. Those I Bonds had a fixed rate of 0.0% but the composite rate of 9.62% was extremely attractive (the 1-year T-bill was yielding about 4.5%). I Bond mania was in full swing and the gift box program became a viable strategy for investors with a trusted partner.

At that time, the consensus view was that gift box purchases of $10,000 could only be delivered one at a time, each year, and any delivery would lock the recipient out of additional purchases or gift box deliveries in that year. Some investors bought 10 sets in 2022 and it appeared they would have to sit on those 0.0% I Bonds for delivery over the next 10 years. Once TreasuryDirect opened the floodgates with emails urging deliveries “as soon as possible,” those investors could immediately deliver and redeem. The loophole sprang open.

I was never a fan of using the gift box strategy unless the fixed rate was historically high, because the fixed rate is permanent. The only time I used the strategy was in 2024, when the I Bond’s fixed rate was 1.30%. Later that year, I delivered all the gift box swaps and figured I would never again use the strategy.

Common-sense solution

Why do investors use the gift box strategy? Most of the time, these are fairly wealthy people looking to build a stockpile of inflation-protected cash in a very safe investment. For them, the $10,000 per year purchase cap is too small to make a difference in their asset allocation. So they craftily resort to the gift box.

Here’s my solution:

The Treasury should immediately raise the savings bond purchase cap to $30,000 a year — equal to the cap that existed from 1998 to January 2008. Adjusted for inflation since January 2008, that cap would be $46,000 today.
It should eliminate the gift box program or alter it in a way that allows only small purchases and controlled deliveries. Gifts from grandparents to kids were nice in the past when Treasury issued paper savings bonds, but less accessible in our new age of electronic investments.

As a compromise, I’d accept raising the purchase cap to $20,000 a year — $40,000 for a couple. That would make the I Bond more attractive for sophisticated investors. And it would create an expanded opportunity for investors without a trusted partner, who are essentially locked out of the gift box strategy.

And another thing … TreasuryDirect, please be upfront about future changes you are planning. Let us know in clear terms what to expect.

And a reminder … If you are planning a purchase of the April-issue I Bond, make sure to place your order at TreasuryDirect no later than Tuesday, April 28. Purchases “completed” on April 30 will be May-issue I Bonds. From TreasuryDirect:

I expect we will see the new fixed-rate / composite rate announcement Friday morning about 10 a.m. EDT. I will be posting an update.

Did you get the gift box email? If so, what are your plans? Would you consider using the strategy in 2026 to lock in the 0.9% fixed rate?

• Confused by I Bonds? Read my Q&A on I Bonds

• Let’s ‘try’ to clarify how an I Bond’s interest is calculated

• Inflation and I Bonds: Track the variable rate changes

• I Bonds: Here’s a simple way to track current value

• I Bond Manifesto: How this investment can work as an emergency fund

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Posted in Cash alternatives, EE Bonds, I Bond, Inflation, Retirement, TreasuryDirect | Tagged investing, personal-finance, Treasury investments | 81 Comments

5-year TIPS auction gets a real yield of 1.367%

Posted on April 23, 2026 by Tipswatch

By David Enna, Tipswatch.com

On a day when real and nominal yields were creeping higher, the Treasury’s auction of $26 billion in a new 5-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Security got a real yield to maturity of 1.367%, a good result for investors.

This is CUSIP 91282CQP9. The auction result set its coupon rate at 1.250%. The real yield of 1.367% was very slightly higher than the when-issued prediction of 1.365%. The bid-to-cover ratio was decent at 2.57. This auction was well supported by investors.

All morning, I had been tracking the nominal 5-year Treasury yield, which had been inching higher from 3.88% around 8 a.m. to 3.95% at the auction’s close. That rise, possibly connected to continued dim news from the Mideast, could have been a factor in today’s auction result by pulling real yields higher.

Definition: The “real yield to maturity” of a TIPS is its yield above future U.S. inflation, over the term of the TIPS. So a real yield of 1.367% means an investment in this TIPS would provide a return that exceeds official U.S. inflation by 1.367% for 5 years.

Here is the trend in the 5-year real yield over the last year, based on Treasury estimates, showing that today’s result is in the mid- to -lower range, but higher than very recent trends.

Pricing

This is a new TIPS, so its coupon rate was set to the 1/8th percentage point below the auctioned real yield. That resulted in an unadjusted price of 99.440535, a slight discount. In addition, this TIPS will carry an inflation index of 1.00235 on the settlement date of April 30. With that information, we can calculate the cost of a $10,000 par value purchase at this auction:

Par value: $10,000.
Principal on settlement date: $10,000 x 1.00235 = $10,023.50.
Cost of investment: $10,023.50 x 0.99440535 = $9,967.42.
+ accrued interest of $5.13 .

In summary, an investor purchasing $10,000 par value of this TIPS paid $9,967.42 for $10,023.50 in principal on the settlement date. From then on, the investor will earn accruals matching future inflation, plus an annual coupon rate of 1.25% on adjusted principal. The accrued interest will be returned at the first coupon payment on October 15.

Inflation breakeven rate

At the auction’s close, the 5-year Treasury note was trading with a nominal yield of 3.95%, which creates an inflation breakeven rate of 2.58% for this TIPS, the highest level at auction for this term since October 2022. Clearly, developments in the Mideast are raising inflation fears, especially in the shorter term.

Here is the trend in the 5-year inflation breakeven rate over the last year:

Thoughts

Even though the real yield was well below the 1.702% generated at last April’s originating auction, this seems like a decent result. Since April 2025, the Federal Reserve has cut short-term interest rates by 75 basis points. But at this point, the Fed looks likely to keep rates stable for several months.

In my preview article for this auction, I noted: “I think a real yield level around 1.30% to 1.35% seems reasonable. The Fed won’t be cutting rates anytime soon.” Market yields change by the minute, especially in the midst of global disruptions.

At mid-morning, I asked three AI bots to predict the result of today’s auction. Here were their predictions:

Claude and ChatGPT used my article to predict a range of 1.30% to 1.35%, which due to today’s market events ended up being a bit too low. Google’s Gemini ignored my input and overshot the yield by a wide margin.

TIPS auction results have always been difficult to predict. I’ve learned to be careful, qualified and modest in my predictions.

Did you invest today? What are your thoughts? Meanwhile, here is a history of 4- to 5-year TIPS auctions over the last five years: