Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities

10-year TIPS auction gets real yield of 2.169% to soft demand

Posted on May 21, 2026 by Tipswatch

By David Enna, Tipswatch.com

The Treasury’s offering of $19 billion in a reopening auction of a 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Security — CUSIP 91282CPU9 — generated a real yield to maturity of 2.169%, a bit above secondary market trading.

This is a 9-year, 8-month TIPS with a coupon rate of 1.875%, set at the originating auction on Jan. 22. It had been trading on the secondary market Thursday morning with a real yield to maturity of about 2.14%, and the “when issued” bond-market prediction was 2.15%. This indicates demand was a bit weak for this offering, even though the bid-to-cover ratio was a reasonable 2.52.

Definition: The “real yield to maturity” of a TIPS is its yield above future U.S. inflation, over the term of the TIPS. So a real yield of 2.169% means an investment in this TIPS would provide a return that exceeds official U.S. inflation by 2.169% for 9 years, 8 months.

Most likely, the real yield rose a bit higher because of market jitters over the U.S. stalemate with Iran, which has sent oil prices soaring. Iran reportedly is in talks on setting up a permanent toll for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, a position the U.S. opposes.

The result was a good one for investors. The real yield of 2.169% was near the top of the range for auctions since mid 2022, when real yields rose out of negative depths. At its originating auction in January, this TIPS got a real yield of 1.940%.

Here is the trend in the 10-year real yield over the last two years. While real yields have now climbed above 2.0%, they remain below highs of early 2025:

Pricing

Because the real yield came in well above the coupon rate of 1.875%, this TIPS auctioned at a discount, with an unadjusted price of 97.455252. It will also carry an inflation index of 1.01522 on the settlement date of May 29. With that information, we can calculate the cost of a $10,000 par value purchase at this auction:

Par value: $10,000.
Principal purchased on settlement date: $10,000 x 1.01522 = $10,152.20.
Cost of investment: $10,152.20 x 0.97455252 = $9,893.85.
+ accrued interest of $70.46.

In summary, an investor paid $9,893.85 for $10,152.20 of principal on the settlement date of May 29. From then on, the investor will earn accruals matching future inflation, plus an annual coupon rate of 1.875% on adjusted principal. The accrued interest will be returned at the first coupon payment on July 15.

Inflation breakeven rate

At the auction’s close, the 10-year Treasury note was trading with a nominal yield of 4.60%. That creates an inflation breakeven rate of 2.43% for this TIPS, the highest number since a similar auction in September 2022. A high inflation breakeven rate indicates a TIPS is “expensive” versus the nominal Treasury of the same term.

Investors were betting that U.S. inflation will exceed 2.43% over the next 9 years, 8 months. Over the last 10 years, inflation has averaged 3.4%.

Here is the trend in the 10-year inflation breakeven rate over the last two years, showing the recent surge higher in inflation expectations:

Thoughts

This was a good result for investors, with the real yield rising well above the most recent reopening of this term, 1.896% on March 19. But the fact that investor demand was lukewarm indicates the market fears higher real yields in the future.

Nevertheless, for an investor committed to holding to maturity, a real yield of 2.169% is attractive.

Interesting side note: Because non-seasonally-adjusted inflation surged 0.85% in April, holders of this TIPS will get a 0.85% boost to principal in June. The same goes for all TIPS, no matter when they were issued.

Here is the history over the last five years for TIPS auctions of this term. We’ve come a long way from the deeply negative real yields continuing through March 2022:

• Confused by TIPS? Read my Q&A on TIPS

• TIPS in depth: Understand the language

• TIPS on the secondary market: Things to consider

• TIPS investor: Don’t over-think the threat of deflation

• Upcoming schedule of TIPS auctions

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Feel free to post comments or questions below. If it is your first-ever comment, it will have to wait for moderation. After that, your comments will automatically appear. Please stay on topic and avoid political tirades. NOTE: Comment threads can only be three responses deep. If you see that you cannot respond, create a new comment and reference the topic.

David Enna is a financial journalist, not a financial adviser. He is not selling or profiting from any investment discussed. I Bonds and TIPS are not “get rich” investments; they are best used for capital preservation and inflation protection. They can be purchased through the Treasury or other providers without fees, commissions or carrying charges. Please do your own research before investing.

Posted in Federal Reserve, Inflation, Investing in TIPS, TreasuryDirect | Tagged investing, personal-finance, Treasury investments | 3 Comments

This week’s 10-year TIPS auction is going to get interesting

Posted on May 17, 2026 by Tipswatch

By David Enna, Tipswatch.com

As U.S. annual inflation rises toward 4%, investor interest in inflation-protected investments is also on the rise, making this week’s reopening auction of a 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Security one to watch.

This is CUSIP 91282CPU9, with a term of 9 years, 8 months. It had its originating auction on Jan. 22, when it got a real yield to maturity of 1.949% and a coupon rate of 1.875%. The first reopening auction, on March 19, got a real yield of 1.896%. There is a good possibility this week’s auction will top those yields.

This TIPS trades on the secondary market, and it closed Friday with a real yield to maturity of 2.07%, a jump of about 14 basis points from a week earlier. The U.S. Treasury market is now adjusting to a future with: 1) a lengthy period of high energy prices, 2) the potential for months of climbing U.S. inflation, 3) a growing possibility of Federal Reserve rate increases, and 4) a continual rise in U.S. budget deficits.

Definition: The “real yield to maturity” of a TIPS is its yield above future U.S. inflation, over the term of the TIPS. So a real yield of 2.07% means an investment in this TIPS would provide a return that exceeds official U.S. inflation by 2.07% for 9 years, 8 months.

Many investors assume that when inflation expectations rise, real yields will soar higher. But that is not exactly the case. In a period of rising inflation expectations, the nominal Treasury yield will rise faster than the TIPS yield. Since the beginning of the war with Iran:

The nominal yield of a 10-year Treasury note has increased 62 basis points.
The real yield of a 10-year TIPS has increased 38 basis points.
The inflation breakeven rate has increased 24 basis points.

At this point, I’d say it’s impossible to predict where the auction’s real yield will fall, but it looks likely to break through the 2.0% barrier for the first time in a year. Here is the trend in the 10-year real yield over the last 20 years and across two recessions:

The 20-year view is interesting because it reaches back before the period of Federal Reserve activism to force interest rates lower. Before the Great Recession of late 2007 to mid 2009, the 10-year real yield was solidly above 2.0%. In July 2007, a 10-year TIPS auctioned with a real yield of 2.749%. At the time, the 10-year Treasury note was yielding 5.11%, creating an inflation breakeven rate of 2.36%, lower than we are seeing today.

I don’t think we will see a repeat of 2007, but isn’t it possible that the 10-year nominal will rise to 5% and the 10-year TIPS to as high as 2.5%? Maybe, but not at this auction.

Pricing

Because the auctioned real yield is likely to be above the coupon rate of 1.875%, CUSIP 91282CPU9 will almost certainly get a discount on its unadjusted price. (It is currently trading with a price of 98.30.) However, it will carry a fairly sizable inflation index of 1.01522 on the settlement date of May 29. If the real yield holds at the current 2.07% (not likely), this is what the investment cost will look like for a $10,000 par value purchase:

Par value: $10,000
Principal purchased on settlement date: $10,000 x 1.01522 = $10,152.20
Cost of investment = $10,152.20 x 0.9830 = $9,979.61
+ accrued interest of about $70.46.

Again, this is a forecast based on the Friday close. The market will change before Thursday’s auction, but it looks highly like that the cost will remain below par value, even with the extra accrued principal. The accrued interest will be returned at the first coupon payment on July 15.

Inflation breakeven rate

The 10-year Treasury note closed Friday with a nominal yield of 4.59%, which creates an inflation breakeven rate of 2.52% for this TIPS at its current real yield of 2.07% on the secondary market. If that breakeven rate holds, it would be the highest since an auction in May 2022 at 2.61%.

A high inflation breakeven rate indicates a TIPS is more “expensive” versus a Treasury of the same term. At some point, you might shift your focus to the nominal Treasury. Think inflation will average less than 2.52% over the next 10 years? Buy the Treasury note. (FYI, inflation over the last 10 years has averaged 3.4%.)

Here is the trend in the 10-year inflation breakeven rate over the last 20 years:

Note the wild dips lower during times of recession. Since early 2022, however, inflation expectations have hovered in a range of 2.2% to 2.5%. We are now at the high end of that range — thanks to a lingering oil-price shock.

Thoughts

I won’t be a buyer at this auction since I bought my full TIPS-ladder allocation for 2036 at the January auction.

There is no overriding reason to wait until the auction to purchase this TIPS, which will be trading on the secondary market all week. If you see a real yield that you like, buy it in a brokerage account.

The advantage of buying at auction, especially through TreasuryDirect, is that even small-lot purchases will get the auction’s high yield. The advantage of the secondary market is that you can see exactly the price and real yield you will be receiving. The negative is that you may face a small bid-ask spread. Most of the time, it doesn’t make a huge difference, but if you see a real yield you like, know that you can probably get it on the secondary market without dealing with the auction’s uncertainty.

This TIPS auction closes Thursday at 1 p.m. ET. Non-competitive bids at TreasuryDirect must be placed by noon Thursday. If you are putting an order in through a brokerage, make sure to place your order Wednesday or very early Thursday, because brokers cut off auction orders before the noon deadline.

I will be posting the auction results soon after the close on Thursday. Here is a history of auction results for this term over the last 5 years:

• Confused by TIPS? Read my Q&A on TIPS

• TIPS in depth: Understand the language

• TIPS on the secondary market: Things to consider

• TIPS investor: Don’t over-think the threat of deflation

• Upcoming schedule of TIPS auctions

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Follow Tipswatch on X for updates on daily Treasury auctions and real yield trends (when I am not traveling).

Posted in Federal Reserve, Inflation, Investing in TIPS, TreasuryDirect | Tagged investing, personal-finance, Treasury investments | 29 Comments

Energy shock sends U.S. inflation to a three-year high

Posted on May 12, 2026 by Tipswatch

By David Enna, Tipswatch.com

The lingering war in the Mideast, and its oil-price shock, sent U.S. seasonally-adjusted inflation 0.6% higher in April and pushed the annual rate to 3.8%, its highest level since May 2023, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.

Core inflation rose 0.4% for the month and 2.8% for the year — both numbers higher than expectations.

Economists expected an ugly report for April, but this was a bit uglier than forecast. Gasoline costs were a key factor, of course, rising 5.4% in the month after soaring 21.2% in March. Gas prices are now up 28.4% over the last year. The BLS said energy costs accounted for 40% of the all-items increase.

Shelter costs rose 0.6% for the month, a high number that was boosted by April survey data replacing missing data for October 2025. For October, when no data were collected, BLS set shelter inflation at 0.0%, obviously too low. This report begins to bring annual inflation back into line. Did shelter costs truly rise 0.6%? Probably not.

Also in the report:

Food at home costs increased a disturbing 0.7% in April, after falling 0.2% in March. The annual rate is now 2.9%.
Costs of fruits and vegetables were up 1.8% for the month and 6.1% for the year.
Beef prices rose 2.7% for the month.
Apparel costs rose 0.6% for the month and 4.2% for the year.
Airline fares were up 2.8% for the month and are now up 20.7% for the year.
Costs of new vehicles fell 0.2% for the month and are up only 0.2% for the year.
Costs of used cars and trucks were flat for the month.
Costs of medical care services were flat but up 3.2% for the year.

Although gasoline and shelter dominated this April report, there were many signs of inflation creeping across the economy — food, airline fares, household furnishings, apparel, etc. The result is this very scary chart:

Wednesday update: Producer prices

From Reuters: U.S. producer prices increased more than expected in April, posting their biggest gain since early 2022. The Producer Price ‌Index for final demand surged 1.4% last month after an upwardly revised 0.7% advance in March. In the 12 months through April, the PPI jumped 6.0%. That was the largest increase since December 2022.

What this means for TIPS and I Bonds

Investors in Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities and Series I Savings Bonds are also interested in non-seasonally adjusted inflation, which is used to adjust principal balances for TIPS and set future interest rates for I Bonds. For April, the BLS set the inflation index at 333.020, an increase of 0.85% over the March number.

For TIPS. The April report means that principal balances for all TIPS will rise 0.85% in June after rising 1.05% in March. These are gaudy numbers, but will be balanced off later in the year when non-seasonally-adjusted inflation runs lower than the seasonally-adjusted version. Here are the new June Inflation Indexes for all TIPS.

For I Bonds. April is the first of a six-month string that will determine the I Bond’s new variable rate, which will be reset November 1. We can’t draw any conclusions from this one-month 0.85% increase, but I can say it is the highest April number over the last 14 years I have been tracking this data.

View historical data on my Inflation and I Bonds page.

What this means for future interest rates

We can be certain the Federal Reserve, even under Kevin Warsh’s new leadership, will not be cutting short-term interest rates until this energy shock settles down and we can see the lasting results.

With inflation surging, should the Fed be raising interest rates? Also not likely, especially if the U.S. economy begins slowing down under the weight of energy costs. So I am thinking we are in a period of uneasy stability for short-term rates.

From today’s Bloomberg report:

Even if the current ceasefire holds and the Strait of Hormuz reopens soon, economists anticipate higher costs are likely to persist in the months ahead as oil output normalizes and shipping flows recover. …

The FOMC is likely to be concerned by renewed signs of food inflation accelerating, given the risk that higher gasoline and food prices together will further boost households’ inflation expectations.

And the Wall Street Journal:

The April report is the latest sign that the rate cuts that markets were pricing in at the start of the year are no longer a 2026 story. … Now, the policy debate within the Fed has shifted away from when to cut rates and toward when to start signaling that a rate hike is as likely as a rate cut.

It’s possible we could see inflation begin to stabilize in coming months, while remaining in a range around 4.0%. That is not the set-up for cuts in interest rates. And once again, we can see the value in investing in inflation protection.

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Donate? This site is free and I plan to keep it that way. Some readers have suggested having a way to contribute. I welcome donations, any amount. And FYI, ads on this site pay for about one visit to Costco.

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Posted in Federal Reserve, I Bond, Inflation, Investing in TIPS | Tagged economy, investing, personal-finance, Treasury investments | 41 Comments

I filled out the top end of my TIPS ladder last week

Posted on May 10, 2026 by Tipswatch

By David Enna, Tipswatch.com

One morning last week on Bloomberg, a fixed-income analyst was asked about the effect of a 5% nominal yield on a 30-year Treasury bond. He said: “Then you’ll see bond investors attacking like seagulls in Finding Nemo.” (See Nemo video)

I must have seagull instincts. A 30-year nominal cracking 5% doesn’t particularly interest me, but I was curious about real yields for the top end of my ladder of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, years 2040 to 2043.

So I flocked in. When I built this ladder, mostly in late summer/fall of 2023, I didn’t quite fill out the years 2041 to 2043, mainly because of very high existing inflation accruals on those TIPS, which means buying a lot of additional principal.

In mid-April and then last week, I completed the top end. I thought it would be helpful for me to explain how each transaction worked.

April 14: CUSIP 912810QP6

This TIPS matures Feb. 15, 2041. I own one portion at TreasuryDirect (bought at the original 2011 auction with a real yield of 2.190%) and another portion in a traditional IRA, bought in fall 2023 with real yields of around 2.20%.

Par value: $7,000
Coupon rate: 2.125%
Inflation factor: 1.4885
Adjusted principal: $10,419.50
Price: 98.27343
Cost of investment: $10,239.60
Real yield to maturity: 2.263%

For this purchase, I was looking to add $10,000 to 2041’s accrued principal, bringing it to my target level for each year of the ladder. Because of the large inflation accrual, I placed a par-value order for $7,000 to get the result of $10,419.50 in adjusted principal, at a cost of $10,239.60.

I like this TIPS, which I will hold to maturity, because I appreciate having a 2.125% coupon rate creating cash flow through the next 15 years. The next two TIPS don’t have that same coupon-rate advantage, however.

May 5: CUSIP 912810QV3

This TIPS matures Feb. 15, 2042.

Par value: $8,000
Coupon rate: 0.750%
Inflation factor: 1.448665
Adjusted principal: $11,589.20
Price: 77.57812
Cost of investment: $8,990.68
Real yield to maturity: 2.475%

I spent $8,990.68 to add $11,589.20 in principal, bringing the total to my goal. The yearly cash flow isn’t great at 0.750%, but this is the way it works — there is only one TIPS maturing in 2042. This is the only option. The real yield to maturity of 2.475% was well above my original 2023 purchase at 2.105%.

May 5: CUSIP 912810RA8

This TIPS matures Feb. 15, 2043.

Par value: $10,000
Coupon rate: 0.625%
Inflation factor: 1.42376
Adjusted principal: $14,237.60
Price: 74.14843
Cost of investment: $10,556.96
Real yield to maturity: 2.525%

This TIPS had the biggest gap to my yearly target amount, so I was looking to add $14,000 in principal, which required purchasing $10,000 par value at a cost of $10,556.96. The real yield of 2.525% was well above my 2023 purchase at 2.203%.

Deflation risk?

I get a lot of feedback from readers who are very resistant to purchasing inflation-adjusted principal above par value, even at a discount. The reason: A TIPS is guaranteed to return only par value at maturity, and that means any amount above par value is exposed to risk of deflation, meaning principal would decline.

Yes, it is a risk. But as I noted in this article, “Don’t over-think the potential threat of deflation,” the risk is much greater short-term than long-term.

Since 1971, the lowest average annual inflation for any 5-year period was 1.4%, for the 5 years ending in both 2017 and 2018. For 10-year periods, the lowest was 1.6%, for the years ending in 2017. For a 30-year period, the lowest was 2.2%, for the years ending in 2020.

So if you are buying a TIPS on the secondary market with a high inflation index and 15 years remaining to maturity, you can be fairly confident you won’t be struck by a 15-year period of deflation, eating away at your above-par investment.

Since 1971, there has not been a single deflationary year ending in December. The lowest inflation rate was 0.1% in 2008.

And keep in mind that every single TIPS you are holding at the moment has an inflation accrual above par value.

Sense of completion

These are fairly small investments, not life-changing in any way. The three purchases will allow me to focus on future purchases of TIPS maturing in 2037 to 2038.

Last week, I had an interesting question from a reader:

In deciding upon the ending year for your target range do you include additional years your beneficiary may hold the account after your own death? I am currently thinking for TIPS held in a Roth wrapper account that 10 years beyond my expected death would be a reasonable year to select and that a 10 year rolling TIPS ladder could be a great fit and allow the beneficiary to hold all the TIPS in the Roth account to maturity if they wish.

I can’t argue with that premise, as long as the beneficiary is a responsible person who could take directions and understand how TIPS work. My wife and I have no children, so beneficiaries aren’t a great concern.

Will I live to that last maturity in 2043, when I will be just months from 90? It’s certainly possible, but maybe not likely. I definitely think my wife could live to 90 and she has financial smarts. But around age 90, who wants to be managing a TIPS ladder?

Let’s face it: TIPS are a complex and intimidating investment. I was talking to a Wall Street Journal reporter a week ago who told me that a co-worker, very skilled at financial journalism, doesn’t get TIPS at all. We laughed. But that’s the norm. I hope this article provides helpful information on purchasing TIPS on the secondary market.

The complicated nature of TIPS is why a lot of sophisticated investors prefer I Bonds, despite the lower real yield. I Bonds have advantages of tax-deferral, rock-solid deflation protection, and a flexible maturity. They can never go down in value, unlike a TIPS. I Bonds and TIPS make a good combination.

Here is the Wall Street Journal video:

• Now is an ideal time to build a TIPS ladder

• Confused by TIPS? Read my Q&A on TIPS

• TIPS in depth: Understand the language

• TIPS on the secondary market: Things to consider

• TIPS investor: Don’t over-think the threat of deflation

• Upcoming schedule of TIPS auctions

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PayPal link / Venmo link

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Follow Tipswatch on X for updates on daily Treasury auctions and real yield trends (when I am not traveling).

Posted in Inflation, Investing in TIPS, Retirement, TreasuryDirect | Tagged investing, personal-finance, Treasury investments | 28 Comments

Treasury holds I Bond fixed rate at 0.90%; composite rate rises to 4.26%

Posted on April 30, 2026 by Tipswatch

I Bonds remain an attractive investment for capital preservation.

By David Enna, Tipswatch.com

The Treasury announced this morning it is holding the fixed rate of the U.S. Series I Savings Bond at 0.90%, the rate in effect since since November 2025. This decision sets the I Bond’s six-month composite rate at 4.26% for purchases from May to October 2026.

This is exactly as I predicted, which means the Trump administration is carrying forward the basis of a decade-long formula for determining the fixed rate. That is very good news for I Bond investors.

An I Bond pays interest based on a semi-annual inflation rate (in this case 1.67% from October 2025 to March 2026) and a fixed rate (which remains at 0.90%). Here is how the Treasury combines the two rates to get a composite rate of 4.26%:

The variable rate

The inflation-adjusted rate (often called the I Bond’s variable rate) is now 3.34%. That rate will apply to all I Bonds ever issued, with the starting date depending on the original month of purchase. I Bonds purchased in April will get an annualized composite rate of 4.03% for six months, and then 4.26% for six months beginning in October.

The variable rate of 3.34% means that even I Bonds from past years with fixed rates of 0.0% will earn 3.34% for six months, a yield on a par with high-quality money market funds.

Here are the inflation numbers used to determine the variable rate:

The fixed rate

Here is the formula — devised by Boglehead geniuses — I have been using to forecast the Treasury’s fixed-rate decision: Apply a ratio of 0.65 to the average real yield of the 5-year TIPS over the last six months. This formula has worked, without fail, for 13 fixed-rate resets since November 2017. it is reassuring to see past practices continued.

The fixed rate is crucial for I Bond investors because it creates the real yield over inflation. A fixed rate of 0.90% means an I Bond will out-perform future inflation by 0.90%. This is a solid fixed rate, in my opinion, and it means your investment can continue to surpass official U.S. inflation for as long as you hold the I Bond, up to 30 years.

The composite rate

Because the fixed rate held at 0.90%, I Bonds purchased in April (too late for that now) will have a full-year return of 4.16%, combining six months of 4.03% and six of 4.26%. I Bonds purchased any time from May to October will earn six months of 4.26%, and then an undetermined composite rate based on the next rate reset on November 1.

This annualized yield of 4.26% is highly attractive in today’s market for safe investments, but keep in mind that an I Bond has to be held for 1 year and then any redemption before 5 years will lose the last three months of interest. In my opinion, I Bond investors should be looking to hold for 5 years and then cash in when they need the money.

FYI: Today’s update from the Treasury continues to carry the purchase limit of $10,000 per person per calendar year. However, it is possible to add to your holdings through gift-box, trusts, or business-owner strategies.

EE Bonds

The Treasury set the fixed rate for Series EE Bonds at 2.40% for purchases from May to October. That is down from 2.50% for purchases through April. After 20 years, EE Bonds automatically double the original purchase amount, which creates an effective return of 3.53% if held for 20 years. Treasury says:

For EE bonds you buy now, we guarantee that the bond will double in value in 20 years, even if we have to add money at 20 years to make that happen.

I suspect the Treasury gets very little investor support for EE Bonds. You can do better with short-term investments (3.75% on the 1-year T-bill) and better with long-term investments (4.97% on the 20-year Treasury note).

I Bonds remain attractive

New investors through October 2026 will be getting a six-month annualized return of 4.26%, better than the current market for short-term Treasury bills. I remain a fan of and advocate for I Bonds. I bought my 2026 allocation in April.

I Bonds work well as a secondary emergency fund, constantly adjusting to inflation. There are no state income taxes, federal taxes are deferred, the maturity date is flexible, and the value of the investment can never decline with “market trends.” You won’t get rich, but this is a strong investment for preserving capital.

If you didn’t buy in April. No problem. This was a “toss-up” decision and now you can buy in May (later in the month is wise) or better yet, just wait it out until October to decide on a purchase. On October 14, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September inflation report, which will set in stone the next variable rate. And by that point we will have a pretty good idea of the next fixed rate. You’ll have a two-week period to make a decision.

If you did buy in April. If you bought your full 2026 allocation before today, you can sit back and await the November rate decision. Whatever that is, it will be available through April 2027, so the purchase cap will reset on January 1. Or … you could be daring and jump into the gift-box loophole.