Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities

• The real yield looks likely to come in right around 0.95%, close to the originating auction result.
• The inflation breakeven rate is trending at 1.83%, pretty desirable.
• One warning: Do not buy this TIPS in a taxable account. It may be cash-flow negative.

Read my full analysis on SeekingAlpha.com

• 12-month inflation has dipped to 1.9%, down from 2.7% in February.
• Core inflation is up 1.7% over the last year, also in a downward trend.
• Will the Federal Reserve back off on interest rate increases? Not likely today, but possible in the future if this trend continues.

Holders of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities and I Bonds are also interested in non-seasonally adjusted inflation, which is used to adjust the principal balances on TIPS and set future interest rates for I Bonds. May’s inflation index was set at 244.733, up 0.09% from April.

Read my full analysis on SeekingAlpha.com

Also, I have updated my Tracking Inflation and I Bonds page with these new numbers.

And here are the new July inflation indexes for TIPS.

• Real yields fell sharply this week in reaction to White House turmoil.
• The 10-year inflation breakeven rate came in at an attractive 1.79%, making this TIPS attractive versus a nominal Treasury.
• Market reaction looks positive, with TIPS yields falling after the auction close.

Read my full analysis on SeekingAlpha.com

• CUSIP 912828V49 is currently trading in the secondary market with a real yield of 0.47%.
• If you are considering a purchase, watch the secondary market, which will predict the likely yield.
• The 10-year inflation-breakeven rate is currently at an attractive 1.86%.

Read my full analysis at SeekingAlpha.com

• Headline inflation was 2.2% over the last 12 months, down from 2.7% in February.
• Year-over-year core inflation dropped to 1.9%, the lowest number since October 2015.
• These numbers ease pressure on the Federal Reserve. Rate increases coming? Probably, but no surprises.

Read my full analysis at SeekingAlpha.com

Also, I have updated my Tracking Inflation and I Bonds page with these new numbers.

And here are the new TIPS inflation indexes for June.

• A 26-week Treasury just auctioned with an investment yield of 1.036%.
• 13-week yields are closing in on the 1% mark and may outperform your cash holdings.
• These short-term Treasurys can be purchased without commissions or fees and are ultra-safe and ultra-liquid.

Read my full analysis at SeekingAlpha.com