Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities

The Savings Bond Calculator has a problem

Posted on January 11, 2026 by Tipswatch

Here is a guide to a workaround.

By David Enna, Tipswatch.com

It’s a new year and I am sure a lot of investors in Series I and EE Savings Bonds are using TreasuryDirect’s Savings Bond Calculator to determine year-end values for their investments. This year, though, there is a problem.

Using the calculator involves clicking on an .html file stored on your computer, which opens a summary of your investment values. To update those values, the user clicks on the “Return to Savings Bond Calculator” link to export the values into the calculator. No login to TreasuryDirect is necessary.

Here is what the link looks like in the Firefox browser.

Once you enter the calculator, you can update the values, edit the list if necessary, and re-save the file as an .html document to your computer. Success! If you have done this before you know how it works. If not, read my step-by-step guide on using the calculator.

The problem

Since sometime in late 2025, the .html file you save back to your computer can no longer link back to the Savings Bond Calculator. When you click on “Return to Savings Bond Calculator,” nothing happens. (For this reason, I recommend always using an updated file name when you re-save the file. For example, use the current month in the new filename. Your older file will still connect, since it is not broken.)

I have tested the broken link issue in Firefox, Chrome, and Edge browsers and the newly saved file fails in all three.

Obviously, something has broken in the .html file created by the calculator. A reader altered me to this issue last week and noted, “I called TD and talked to them and they say that they are aware of the problem and are working on it. They had no estimate as to the timeline.”

This is especially frustrating at a time when investors want to create year-end updates of their holdings. However … remember that any older .html file you have saved will still connect and can be updated. The problem is that when you re-save that file, it will no longer reconnect.

I have to wonder: “Is this a staffing-shortage problem?” Or “Is there a security issue with the current link that needs to be fixed?” We don’t know and TreasuryDirect has no warning on the calculator indicating there is a problem.

The workaround

I searched around for a solution and on Bogleheads (of course) I found a workable but clumsy way to fix the broken .html file.

I tested this process and it does work. The problem for a lot of people, though, will be figuring out how to open the .html file in a text editor and then alter it. Apparently, this issue is baffling for TreasuryDirect because it hasn’t fixed the problem.

Step by step

I used the calculator to create a fake I Bond portfolio to test the process. Here is what it looks like:

Then, I right-clicked on that page and saved the list as an .html file to my computer. (It’s important to remember where you put the file and what you called it. Use a unique name for every update.)

When I click on the resulting .html file on my computer, I get this:

At this point, the “Return to Savings Bond Calculator” link will not work because this is a new, broken .html file. So I have to open it in Notepad (or any text editor) to alter it. The next step is to right click on the file name and have it open in Notepad:

Here is what you are looking for in the broken file:

And here is how it needs to be altered:

You don’t need to type all that out, just copy and paste this:

<form method="post" action="https://www.treasurydirect.gov/BC/SBCPrice">

Important. Once the editing is complete, re-save the file as an .html document. That means you should simply “SAVE” it. Do not use “SAVE AS” because Notepad will then save it as a .txt document and not .html. It’s fine to overwrite the broken version. The newly edited file should now work. Click on it and here is the result from my example.

When you click on “Return to Savings Bond Calculator” you successfully return to the calculator where you can update your holdings and add or remove savings bonds from your portfolio:

Until TreasuryDirect fixes this issue, you will need to use this workaround every time you save a newly updated .html file.

Thoughts

The Savings Bond Calculator is a valuable tool for I Bond investors. It gives accurate results in a simple, editable format. TreasuryDirect warns that is should only be used for paper I Bonds, but it works fine for electronic versions.

Why not just log into TreasuryDirect to view your holdings? In TreasuryDirect, you can see the total value of the holdings, but for each I Bond you can see only the current composite rate, not the fixed rate. That can get confusing since composite rates change at different months through the year, depending on the month of the original purchase.

With the Savings Bond Calculator, you can combine a listing of two accounts (spouses, for example) and make notations on the account holder and the fixed rate for each I Bond. (I use the serial # field to do this. For example: Husband 0.2% or Wife 0.5%). So you get a complete picture of your combined holdings, and it is very easy to locate the lowest-fixed-rate I Bonds if you want to redeem those. Plus, you can also add in any converted I Bonds, which I have also done. And it is an absolute necessity for people still holding paper I Bonds.

Because the Treasury has stopped issuing paper savings bonds of any form, I have worried that it will discontinue use of the Savings Bond Calculator. That would be a disappointing and frustrating decision.

Fixing this problem appears to be quite simple, just altering one line of code. But we have no timeline from TreasuryDirect for a fix, or if there was a rationale for breaking it.

Does the Savings Bond Calculator create security issues for the user? I doubt it. Remember that the calculator file is stored on your own computer, contains no personal or account information, and interacts with TreasuryDirect without any login information. I was able to use a fake investment file to test the system because it runs outside the TreasuryDirect login.

• Confused by I Bonds? Read my Q&A on I Bonds

• Let’s ‘try’ to clarify how an I Bond’s interest is calculated

• Inflation and I Bonds: Track the variable rate changes

• I Bonds: Here’s a simple way to track current value

• I Bond Manifesto: How this investment can work as an emergency fund

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Feel free to post comments or questions below. If it is your first-ever comment, it will have to wait for moderation. After that, your comments will automatically appear. Please stay on topic and avoid political tirades. NOTE: Comment threads can only be three responses deep. If you see that you cannot respond, create a new comment and reference the topic.

David Enna is a financial journalist, not a financial adviser. He is not selling or profiting from any investment discussed. I Bonds and TIPS are not “get rich” investments; they are best used for capital preservation and inflation protection. They can be purchased through the Treasury or other providers without fees, commissions or carrying charges. Please do your own research before investing.

Posted in Cash alternatives, I Bond, Savings Bond, TreasuryDirect | Tagged investing, personal-finance, Treasury investments | 19 Comments

A 10-year TIPS is maturing Jan. 15. How did it do as an investment?

Posted on January 9, 2026 by Tipswatch

CUSIP 912828N71 continued the trend of strong performance.

By David Enna, Tipswatch.com

Back on Jan. 21, 2016, we had a “sort-of” exciting moment in the market for Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities. The Treasury auctioned a new 10-year TIPS — CUSIP 912828N71 — which generated a real yield to maturity of 0.725%, the highest yield for any 9- to 10-year TIPS auction for nearly five years.

That real yield seems mundane today, but it was a big improvement over a stretch of very low and often negative real yields dating back to September 2011.

Inflation breakeven rate. Another interesting aspect of this TIPS is that on the auction date the 10-year nominal Treasury note was yielding just 2.03%, creating an ultra-low inflation breakeven rate of 1.30%.

Let me ask: Do you think inflation averaged more than 1.3% over the last 10 years? The answer, of course, is yes. Inflation averaged 3.2% over the next 10 years, making this TIPS an outstanding investment versus the 10-year nominal bond of the time.

The final investment results for this TIPS were set by the “iffy” November inflation report released Dec. 18, which may have slightly under-reported true inflation because of problems with government data collection. We will never know for sure. Here is how CUSIP 912828N71 performed at the end:

Data from Eyebonds.info show this TIPS generated a 10-year nominal annual return of 3.902%, easily exceeding the comparable nominal Treasury at 2.03%. For its time, CUSIP 912828N71 was a very good investment.

TIPS versus an I Bond

An I Bond issued in January 2016 had a fixed rate of 0.10%, well below the real yield of this TIPS at 0.725%. According to Eyebonds.info, from January 2016 to the end of June 2026, the I Bond will have generated a nominal return of 3.16%. That is better than the Treasury note at 2.03%, but lags the return of the TIPS at 3.902%.

TIPS versus other alternatives

The total bond market, defined by Vanguard’s Total Bond ETF (BND), has had an average total annual return of 1.94% over the last 10 years, trailing both the January 2016 I Bond and CUSIP 912828N71.

The TIP ETF, which holds all maturities of TIPS, has had an average total return of 2.86% over the 10 years. VTIP, the short-term TIPS ETF, had an average return of 3.15%.

So, when compared to safe alternative investments, CUSIP 912828N71 had the best performance.

One more thing: CUSIP 912810FS2

Another TIPS is maturing Jan. 15: CUSIP 912810FS2, a 20-year TIPS that was originally auctioned on Jan 24, 2006. I don’t track the old 20-year maturities because the Treasury stopped issuing them in November 2009. This TIPS was attractive, with a real yield to maturity of 2.039% at the originating auction.

At the time, a 20-year Treasury bond was yielding 4.63%, giving this TIPS an inflation breakeven rate of 2.59%. Over the last 20 years, annual inflation has averaged 2.51%, and this TIPS will end up providing a nominal return of 4.512%, slightly below the nominal Treasury.

Verdict: CUSIP 912810FS2 was a slight loser versus the nominal Treasury. This happened because inflation ran at lower-than-predicted levels much of the time through 2020.

Thoughts

There is an obvious lesson here: TIPS do well when inflation is higher than expected, and that is exactly why we invest in TIPS — to protect against that possibility. When compared to similar investments, buying this 10-year TIPS in January 2016 and holding to maturity was a sound move.

I purchased this TIPS in a taxable account at TreasuryDirect with a small investment at the January 2016 auction. I get my payday on January 15.

TIPS have been on a winning streak for several years, caused by the surge to 40-year high inflation that peaked in June 2022 at 9.1%. Even today, annual inflation (2.7%) is running higher than the auctioned breakeven rate of January 2016. And so TIPS have been the winners versus nominal Treasurys in recent years.

See historical data on my TIPS vs. Nominals page.

Notes and qualifications

My chart is an estimate of performance comparing inflation breakeven rates versus actual inflation.

Keep in mind that interest on a nominal Treasury and the TIPS coupon rate is paid out as current-year income and not reinvested. So in the case of a nominal Treasury, the interest earned could be reinvested elsewhere, which would potentially boost the gain. For certain, we don’t know what the investor could have earned precisely on an investment after re-investments.

In the case of a TIPS, the inflation adjustment compounds over time, and that will give TIPS a slight boost in return that isn’t reflected in the “average inflation” numbers presented in the chart.

• Confused by TIPS? Read my Q&A on TIPS

• TIPS in depth: Understand the language

• TIPS on the secondary market: Things to consider

• TIPS investor: Don’t over-think the threat of deflation

• Upcoming schedule of TIPS auctions

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Posted in I Bond, Inflation, Investing in TIPS, Savings Bond, TreasuryDirect | Tagged economy, finance, investing, personal-finance, stocks, Treasury investments | 21 Comments

2025: An inflation-watcher’s year in review

Posted on December 30, 2025 by Tipswatch

By David Enna, Tipswatch.com

Let’s all admit one thing: 2025 has been a bizarre year for the U.S. economy, inflation, government effectiveness and the certainty of economic statistics. In fact, my code word through the entire year has been “uncertainty,” so much so that some readers complained I use that word too often.

In this year:

President Trump launched an seemingly dangerous policy of high tariffs on U.S. imports, threatening friends and foes across the world. At first, the market reacted in fear, with the S&P 500 index falling nearly 5% on April 3, the day after “liberation day.”
But … after a few pauses and restarts, the tariff policies seem to have been accepted by the markets. The S&P 500 has had a total return of 19.2% year-to-date. Euphoria over artificial intelligence has helped overcome the fears.
The Federal Reserve cut short-term interest rates three times in 2025, with the effective federal funds rate falling from about 4.32% in January to 3.64% this week.
But … the Fed’s rate cuts have had almost no effect in lowering longer-term interest rates. The yield on a 20-year Treasury bond has fallen just 10 basis points since January 1. The 30-year bond is actually up, now at 4.81% versus 4.79% on January 1.
Elon Musk breezed into Washington on a mission to cut government spending. He did cut jobs: Government payroll numbers are down about 9% this year.
But … Despite the cuts, government outlays have increased about 6% in 2025, according to studies by the Cato Institute and Brookings Institution.
The U.S. government shut down for 43 days because of Congress’s failure to pass budget bills or a continuing resolution. The shutdown (and continuing high deficit spending) has shaken confidence in the value of the U.S. dollar, which has fallen 10% this year.
But … The shutdown also eliminated or delayed reporting of many crucial economic statistics, including for inflation and jobs. Which means we are now in “a fog” as we head into 2026.

Inflation

In November 2024, annual U.S. inflation stood at 2.7% for all-items and 3.3% for core. Today — if you want to believe the November 2025 inflation report — those numbers stand at 2.7% for all-items and 2.6% for core. That looks like an improvement for core inflation, but the number is skewed by the lack of October housing data.

This one chart — unique in the history of U.S. inflation reporting — says it all:

Inflation could truly be on a declining slope, but because of the lack of data we really can’t be sure. And this problem will most likely continue, and I will again get to use the word “uncertainty.”

Clearly, this is a problem for investors in Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities and Series I Savings Bonds, which have returns tied to official U.S. inflation. As the saying goes, “The devil is in the details.” Right now, we have no details. Good luck finding the devil.

Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities

Real yields for longer-term TIPS have held up quite well throughout 2025, which is good news for people attempting to build a ladder of TIPS issues extending well into the future. You can still find real yields at 2.0% or higher — sometimes much higher — for maturities in 2040 to 2055.

Even the 10-year real yield remains attractive, now sitting at a still-appealing 1.90%, down from 2.23% on January 1.

Here is a look at the 12 TIPS auction through the year:

I have highlighted the highs and lows for the year, which don’t tell you much except that the yield curve has steepened, and that inflation expectations are higher in the short term but lower for the long term. Plus, note the big move higher for the 5-year TIPS after the October government shutdown and the resulting black hole of inflation data. TIPS yields are facing a “confidence tax.”

Compare that chart with the same summary for 2024:

Here is the key difference over the last year: The yield curve has steepened. In early 2024, the highest real yields were for 5-year TIPS. That trend reversed in 2025, mainly due to the Federal Reserve’s actions to lower short-term interest rates. Today, the highest auction yields are for 30-year TIPS, which I would say “is normal.”

Here is the trend line for the main TIPS categories over the last year, showing how the spread has widened for long-term versus shorter-term:

Overall, I’d say TIPS yields remain attractive, and that might be because the market doesn’t trust the inflation data coming now and into the near future. Plus, obviously, federal deficits will continue to rise. So investors are demanding higher real yields.

U.S. Series I Savings Bonds

These inflation-protected savings bonds started the year with a fixed rate of 1.2% and a six-month composite rate of 3.11%. Today, the fixed rate for new purchases has fallen to 0.9%, but the composite rate has increased to 4.03%.

Am I still a fan of I Bonds? Sure. But at this point a 5-year TIPS with a real yield of about 1.44% is definitely a competitive investment. And the 10-year TIPS is even more attractive with a real yield of 1.90%.

The problem for all inflation-adjusted investments is trust in the U.S. statistical reporting system. The government shutdown threw a wrench into the November inflation rate, and that disruption could linger unless the Bureau of Labor Statistics finds a way to make adjustments.

I will be likely to purchase a 2026 allocation of I Bonds, but definitely not before mid-April when I can see where both the variable rate and fixed rates are trending.

In summary

I am getting tons of feedback from readers who no longer trust the system. Deficits are out of control. Official inflation reports are jumbled, which is probably being kind. I have no idea where we are heading. I will admit that. The stock market could soar … or plummet. Inflation could reignite … or move toward deflation. The labor market could remain solid … or jobs will disappear.

Unless we have a deep recession, I can’t see inflation lessening dramatically in 2026. But I know that trying to predict future inflation is impossible. So all I can say is:

Have a wonderful New Year. Let’s stick together and figure this out.

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Posted in Federal Reserve, I Bond, Inflation, Investing in TIPS, Retirement | Tagged inflation, interest-rates, investing, personal-finance, Treasury investments | 32 Comments

What’s inside the foggy November inflation report?

Posted on December 21, 2025 by Tipswatch

By David Enna, Tipswatch.com

Since there were very few month-to-month price changes detailed in the November inflation report, we are all left wondering about key areas that resulted in surprisingly low inflation for the September to November period.

This CPI report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics has been highly criticized by economists and inflation experts. Headline and core inflation numbers rose by less than half the number predicted by experts, with all-items CPI rising 2.7% over the 12 months to November, and core up 2.6%.

The BLS produced little data on overall month-to-month inflation changes, but reported that CPI was up only 0.2% total in the two months of October and November. At a time when annual inflation was running at 3.0%, this appears to be cutting the inflation rate by more than half from an expected monthly rate of 0.25%.

However, a decline from 3.0% all-items inflation in September to 2.7% in November is not unusual. And in fact over the last 10 years, annual inflation rates have fallen half the time in that September to November period.

There has been widespread skepticism (including strongly from Tipswatch readers) about the validity of the November inflation report. From Bloomberg’s report:

In a report fouled by the record-long government shutdown, inflation in several categories that had long been stubborn seemed to nearly evaporate. Chief among those were shelter costs, which make up about a third of the consumer price index, but other categories like airfares and apparel notably declined. …

Stacey Standish, a spokesperson for BLS, said the agency used a process called carry-forward imputation for key housing price metrics. This method “imputes the price by using data from the last collected period, effectively proceeding as if the price had not changed,” she said. “Rents for October 2025 were carried forward from April 2025, yielding unchanged index values for rent and owners’ equivalent rent for October.”

OK, I am confused. Carry forward rent data from April 2025? Leading to zero increase in shelter costs in October? Can someone help me understand? From a Fortune report:

“This is a wacky number,” Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, told Fortune. “Shelter costs basically flatlined October by carrying forward September. When housing is that large a component, that really matters.”

Housing appears to be the most distorted category. Shelter accounts for more than 40% of core CPI, yet the November report implies rents and owners’ equivalent rent was essentially zero in October.

“We expected it to cool,” Swonk said, “For this low level, it seems a little bit too much.”

She warned those assumptions don’t simply affect one month’s data. “Because of the assumptions that were made in October, it literally anchors the index going forward,” she said. “It lingers.”

5-year TIPS reopening auction gets real yield of 1.433% to solid demand

Posted on December 18, 2025 by Tipswatch

By David Enna, Tipswatch.com

The Treasury’s offering of $24 billion in a reopened 5-year TIPS — CUSIP 91282CPH8 — generated a real yield to maturity of 1.433% to strong demand from investors.

The mild October/November inflation report, issued this morning, could have had some influence on this auction. This TIPS trades on the secondary market and earlier in the day it was trading with a real yield of 1.41%. The auction’s 1.433% resulted from its inflation-breakeven rate slipping lower. In addition, the November inflation index will trigger a 0.46% decline in January inflation accruals, so a higher real yield was justified.

The bid-to-cover ratio of 2.62 was solid, and the auction’s real yield ended up lower than the “when-issued” prediction of 1.4409%. All of that is an indication of positive investor demand.

Definition: The “real yield to maturity” of a TIPS is its yield above official future U.S. inflation, over the term of the TIPS. So a real yield of 1.433% means an investment in this TIPS would provide a return that exceeds U.S. inflation by 1.433% for its remaining term of 4 years, 10 months.

The 5-year real yield has been sliding lower over the last two years as the Federal Reserve signaled future cuts in short-term interest rates. But it has been rising recently, as shown in this chart:

Pricing

The auction’s unadjusted price was 98.578423, at a discount because the real yield was higher than the existing coupon rate of 1.125%. In addition, this TIPS will have an inflation index of 1.00653 on the settlement date of Dec. 31. With that information, we can calculate the cost of a $10,000 par value investment:

Par value. $10,000.
Principal purchased as of settlement date. $10,000 x 1.00653 = $10,065.30.
Cost of investment. $10,065.30 x 0.98578423 = $9,922.21.
+ accrued interest of $23.95.

In summary, an investor purchasing $10,000 par value at this auction paid $9,922.21 for $10,065.30 of principal on the settlement date of Dec. 31. From then on, the investor will earn accruals matching future inflation plus an annual coupon rate of 1.125% paid on adjusted principal. The accrued interest will be returned at the first coupon payment on April 15.

Inflation breakeven rate

At the auction’s close, the 5-year Treasury note was trading with a nominal yield of 3.68%, which creates an inflation-breakeven rate of 2.25% for this TIPS, below recent trends. This means the TIPS will out-perform the nominal Treasury if inflation averages more than 2.25% over the next 4 years, 10 months. (Inflation over the last five years has averaged 4.5%.)

Here is the trend in the 5-year inflation breakeven rate over the last two years. Note that today’s result of 2.25% fell a bit below recent trends. The data for this chart was through Tuesday:

Thoughts

Despite the disruption of the very confusing November inflation report, this auction seemed to go off without a hitch. The resulting real yield of 1.433% was a bit higher than looked likely earlier in the week. Investors did fine.

This is the last TIPS auction of 2025. Next up is a new 10-year TIPS to be auctioned January 22, 2026. This will be the first TIPS in history to mature in 2036.

Here are results of recent TIPS auctions in the 4- to 5-year term. Note that just four years ago, a similar December reopening got a real yield of -1.508%. Things have changed for the better for TIPS investors: