Author Archives: Tipswatch

Summary 30-year real yields have been climbing, but remain below levels that would make them “interesting.” The 30-year inflation breakeven rate is currently trending at 1.9%, an attractive number but one that reflects the reality of stubbornly low inflation. Conclusion: … Continue reading →

Summary Gasoline prices fell 5.5% in January, continuing a downward force on headline inflation. Headline inflation has fallen from 2.9% in June 2018 to 1.6% in January. Core inflation, which removes food and energy, rose a moderate 0.2% in January … Continue reading →

Summary Inflation over the last 10 years has averaged just 1.8% a year, much lower than investors were predicting in 2010. Investing in Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities is a “bet” that inflation will run higher than expected, or at least match … Continue reading →

Summary The real yield came in 19 basis points below a similar reopening auction in November 2018, just two months ago. The inflation breakeven rate of 1.82% was the lowest for this term since an auction in September 2017, a … Continue reading →

Summary The trend is pointing toward a real yield to maturity of around 0.88%, down substantially from levels in November and December. The inflation breakeven rate is currently at 1.83%, a favorable number that should boost demand for this new … Continue reading →

Summary Bad news for holders of TIPS and I Bonds: Non-seasonally adjusted inflation fell 0.32% in December. Falling energy prices again accounted for almost all the decline in overall inflation. Core inflation remains moderate and steady at 2.2%. The December … Continue reading →

Summary Be patient: Because the I Bond’s fixed rate of 0.50% is locked in through April 30, there is no need to rush to purchase. Is a higher fixed rate possible in 2019? Yes, but the current trend doesn’t make … Continue reading →