Author Archives: tipswatch

Summary While shorter-term real yields have been gradually increasing, the 30-year yield has actually been declining. Investors at Thursday’s auction will probably pay a 2% premium over par value because this TIPS currently has a market yield below the coupon … Continue reading →

Summary ‘Headline’ inflation rose 0.2% in May, but is up 2.8% over the last 12 months, highest since February 2012. Core inflation also increased 0.2%, showing that gasoline prices are not the sole source of inflationary pressure. Non-seasonally adjusted inflation … Continue reading →

Summary The Savings Bond Wizard has been a useful tool for Savings Bond investors for more than 15 years. Now it is gone. The Treasury has replaced it with the Savings Bond Calculator, a similar Web-browser-based tool that is a … Continue reading →

Summary This was the highest after-inflation yield for any 9-to-10 year TIPS auctioned since January 2011. A yield of 0.934% above inflation is moving the return on a 10-year TIPS back into “more normal” levels after years of yield suppression. … Continue reading →

Summary The real (after-inflation) yield looks likely to climb above 0.80%, a seven-year high for TIPS of this term. The inflation breakeven rate is climbing toward 2.15%, meaning this TIPS is not “cheap” versus a nominal Treasury. But it’s not … Continue reading →

Summary Headline inflation rose 0.2% in April, below the consensus estimate of 0.3%. Core inflation was up 0.1% for the month and has increased 2.1% over the last 12 months. That’s the definition of ‘moderate inflation.’ Non-seasonally adjusted inflation was … Continue reading →

Summary I Bonds purchased from May 1 to October 31 will carry a composite rate of 2.52% annualized. Real yields have been rising, which supports the Treasury’s decision to increase the fixed rate to 0.30%, the highest rate reset since … Continue reading →