Author Archives: Tipswatch

This Week’s New 30-Year TIPS Still Isn’t A Winner

Summary 30-year real yields have been climbing, but remain below levels that would make them “interesting.” The 30-year inflation breakeven rate is currently trending at 1.9%, an attractive number but one that reflects the reality of stubbornly low inflation. Conclusion: … Continue reading

Posted in Investing in TIPS | Leave a comment

U.S. Inflation Was Unchanged In January, Dips To 1.6% For A Year

Summary Gasoline prices fell 5.5% in January, continuing a downward force on headline inflation. Headline inflation has fallen from 2.9% in June 2018 to 1.6% in January. Core inflation, which removes food and energy, rose a moderate 0.2% in January … Continue reading

Posted in Investing in TIPS | Leave a comment

Painful Truth: Inflation Protection Has Been A Losing Bet

Summary Inflation over the last 10 years has averaged just 1.8% a year, much lower than investors were predicting in 2010. Investing in Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities is a “bet” that inflation will run higher than expected, or at least match … Continue reading

Posted in Investing in TIPS | 2 Comments

Auction Of New 10-Year TIPS Generates Real Yield Of 0.919%

Summary The real yield came in 19 basis points below a similar reopening auction in November 2018, just two months ago. The inflation breakeven rate of 1.82% was the lowest for this term since an auction in September 2017, a … Continue reading

Posted in Investing in TIPS | Leave a comment

Sad To Say, This Week’s New 10-Year TIPS Might Be One To Skip

Summary The trend is pointing toward a real yield to maturity of around 0.88%, down substantially from levels in November and December. The inflation breakeven rate is currently at 1.83%, a favorable number that should boost demand for this new … Continue reading

Posted in Investing in TIPS | Leave a comment

U.S. Inflation Declines 0.1% In December, Dips To 1.9% For 2018

Summary Bad news for holders of TIPS and I Bonds: Non-seasonally adjusted inflation fell 0.32% in December. Falling energy prices again accounted for almost all the decline in overall inflation. Core inflation remains moderate and steady at 2.2%. The December … Continue reading

Posted in Investing in TIPS | Leave a comment

I Bond Investors: Here’s A Buying Guide For 2019

Summary Be patient: Because the I Bond’s fixed rate of 0.50% is locked in through April 30, there is no need to rush to purchase. Is a higher fixed rate possible in 2019? Yes, but the current trend doesn’t make … Continue reading

Posted in Investing in TIPS | Leave a comment