Author Archives: Tipswatch

Summary The real yield of -0.966% was slightly higher than where this TIPS was trading on the secondary market just minutes before the auction’s close. The inflation break-even rate settled in at 1.65%, which looks like a reasonable number. Inflation … Continue reading →

Summary The 10-year real yield has dipped deeply negative, to nearly 1% below inflation. But that reflects the bond market’s very low nominal yields. This TIPS’ inflation breakeven rate of about 1.67% is still appealing. For the first $10,000 you … Continue reading →

Summary Both all-items inflation (at 0.4%) and core inflation (at 0.4%) were higher than consensus estimates, continuing a recent trend. The August inflation report is signaling a 1.2% increase in the Social Security COLA for 2021, but one more month … Continue reading →

Summary EE Bonds will earn a remarkable 3.5% annually if held for 20 years, tax deferred and free of state income taxes. I Bonds will match U.S. inflation with a flexible maturity date and solid protection against deflation. Both of … Continue reading →

Summary The real yield of -0.272% fell about 53 basis points below the yield of the originating auction on February 20. Investors had to pay a huge premium to collect the coupon rate of 0.25%, about $116.32 for about $100.26 … Continue reading →

Summary The Treasury will reopen CUSIP 912810SM1 in a Thursday auction, creating a 29-year, 6-month TIPS. The real yield looks likely to be around -0.26%, making this the first TIPS of this term to get a negative real yield. Investors … Continue reading →

Summary In a surprise, July inflation came in much higher than the consensus for both all-items and core inflation. Gas prices again were a big factor. The recent surge in inflation now has the Social Security COLA on track for … Continue reading →

Summary The overall TIPS market has had a huge run-up of almost 16% since the bond market turmoil of mid-March. The TIP ETF hit a record high of $126.51 last week, but its one-year performance has been in line with … Continue reading →

Summary There have been 104 auctions of this 9- to 10-year term since 1997 and today’s result was a record low yield, by a large margin. The inflation breakeven rate came in at 1.52%, a reasonable number but higher than … Continue reading →

Summary The real yield for CUSIP 912828ZZ6 could end up around -0.82%, the lowest in the 23-year history of TIPS auctions of this term. Fears of future inflation – spurred by massive monetary and fiscal stimulus programs – should attract … Continue reading →