Author Archives: Tipswatch

Summary At Friday’s close, the Treasury’s estimate of the real yield of a five-year TIPS stood at 0.25%, a bit higher than recent numbers. At that yield, the five-year inflation break-even rate would come in at 1.34%, an extremely low … Continue reading →

Summary I Bonds issued before November 1 will carry a permanent fixed rate of 0.50%, creating a real return higher than that of a 5-, 10- or 20-year TIPS. The Treasury will reset this fixed rate on November 1, and … Continue reading →

Summary The Social Security COLA of 1.6% for 2020 is well below this year’s increase of 2.8%, reflecting the dip in overall U.S. inflation this year. The variable interest rate for U.S. Series I Savings Bonds will rise to 2.0% … Continue reading →

Summary Real yields are near Treasury-estimate lows for 2019, but have popped slightly higher in recent weeks. Today’s auction yield of 0.174% meant that investors had to pay a premium to get a 0.250% after-inflation coupon rate. The inflation breakeven … Continue reading →

Summary The real yield to maturity looks likely to come in at around 0.22%, well below the yields of 10 months ago. The inflation breakeven rate is currently running at 1.68%, a low number that should draw interest in this … Continue reading →

Summary Headline inflation numbers matched the consensus forecast, but core inflation ran higher than expected. Gasoline prices were down, moderating overall inflation. With one month of data remaining, the Social Security COLA looks likely to increase 1.6% to 1.8% for … Continue reading →

Summary The lowly EE Savings Bond now offers substantial yield advantages over similarly safe investments of the same term around the world. EE Bonds make sense only for investors who can hold them 20 years, creating an effective yield of … Continue reading →