Medicare Costs Will Rise Slightly In 2021, But Beware Of IRMAA

  • The Part B premium will increase to $148.50 in 2021, up from $144.60 in 2020. Congress held down this cost in a spending bill passed earlier this year.
  • The annual Part B deductible is increasing to $203, up from $198 in 2020.
  • Many Medicare beneficiaries are unaware that higher income levels can trigger possibly lofty surcharges added to their premiums. It takes planning to keep these costs down.

Any day now, if you are on Medicare, you will get a letter from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services informing you of your new premium and deductible costs for 2021. If you planned well in 2019, your costs should be going up only slightly.

But if you planned poorly, you may be meeting up with IRMAA, the Income-Related Monthly Adjustment Amount, which adds a surcharge to your Medicare Part B and D premiums. These surcharges can be lofty, so it’s smart to plan ahead to limit these costs.

Part A: Hospital insurance

Most people who reach age 65 go on Medicare Part A, even if they are still working. Medicare Part A covers inpatient hospital, skilled nursing facility and some home health care services. About 99% of Medicare beneficiaries do not have a Part A premium since they have at least 40 quarters of Medicare-covered employment.

Although coverage is generally free, Part A has some sizable deductibles and coinsurance costs, and those will be rising slightly in 2021:

Part A Medicare Costs

Keep in mind that most people on Medicare have a Medigap or Medicare Advantage plan that will cover all over most of the Part A deductible and coinsurance amounts. For example, all standardized Medicare Supplement (Medigap) plans, A through N, provide coverage for Part A coinsurance, and most also cover all or most of the Part A deductible costs.

Part B: Medical Insurance

Medicare Part B can be described as covering “outpatient services,” things like doctor visits, some lab tests, an annual wellness exam, flu shots, diabetes screenings, etc. Medicare Part B generally pays 80% of approved costs of covered services, and you pay the other 20%. Some services, like flu shots and a wellness visit, may cost you nothing.

Part B deductible. Before Medicare pays anything, you have to meet your Part B deductible each year. For 2021, that deductible is increasing to $203, up from $198 in 2020. Most Medigap plans do not cover this deductible and as of Jan. 1, 2020, Medigap plans sold to new people were not allowed to cover the Part B deductible. But once the deductible is met, Medigap plans will cover some or all of your Part B costs.

Part B premium. The Part B monthly premium, paid by all people on Medicare, is rising to $148.50 in 2021, up from $144.60 in 2020. This increase would have been higher, but Congress put a cap on the increase in one of its COVID-19 spending bills.

So, for most people in 2021, Medicare Part B is going to cost $148.50 a month for the premium, plus the cost of the $203 deductible. That’s a total cost of $1,985 a year, up from $1,933 for 2020, an increase of 2.7%.

If you want a quick estimate of your 2021 Medicare Part B costs, you can use a simple calculator developed by Alex Wender, founder and CEO of Bluewave Insurance, an independent Medicare Supplement insurance agency.

IRMAA can make things expensive

Since 2007, a beneficiary’s Part B monthly premium is based on reported income, known as MAGI, or modified adjusted gross income. According to the Social Security Administration handbook, for Medicare’s purposes MAGI is adjusted gross income (line 8b of the 2019 federal income tax form) plus tax-exempt interest.

Here are the 2021 Part B total premiums for high-income beneficiaries:

Medicare Part B IRMAA levels

These income-related monthly adjustment amounts affect about 7% of people with Medicare Part B. And it’s important to note that people on Medicare Advantage plans continue to pay the Part B premium, and are also subject to the IRMAA surcharges.

CMS just announced these 2021 IRMAA levels last week, but they are triggered by income you reported on your 2019 federal tax return. In other words, when you filed your return earlier this year, you could not know the income levels that would trigger the surcharges. And a tiny mistake can be very expensive.

“The main issue I come across is 99% of people are completely surprised by the IRMAA, they had no idea they would pay extra,” said Wender of Bluewave Insurance. “It’s also tough on folks because it comes at a time when they are usually transitioning to a fixed income, so every dollar counts.”

Part D: Drug coverage

These IRMAA surcharges also apply to Medicare’s Part D premiums for drug coverage. There is no “standard” Part D premium — the cost you pay depends on the Part D insurer and plan you choose. The IRMAA cost, if any, is added on top of your base premium. People in Medicare Advantage plans don’t pay a separate Part D premium, since those plans include Medicare Advantage Prescription Drug (MAPD) coverage. But Part D is built into Medicare Advantage, and the IRMAA surcharge still applies.

“Yes, folks in MAPD plans pay IRMAA on Part D as it’s included in the coverage,” said Wender. “Even if you enroll into a $0 premium MAPD plan or one that returns part of your Part B premium, you will pay the IRMAA if one is assessed.”

However, if your Medicare Advantage plan does not include drug coverage, there will be no IRMAA surcharge, Wender said. (This is rare.)

Here are the Part D IRMAA levels for 2021, based on reported income in 2019:

Part D IRMAA levels

The high cost of messing up

The IRMAA penalty isn’t a “progressive tax” that ramps up as you go over an income level. Instead, going $1 over the limit is the same as going thousands of dollars over the limit, and incurs the same surcharge.

Here is a look at the annual costs of Parts B and D, plus IRMAA, in 2021:

For example, let’s say a married couple decided to do Roth conversions in 2019 and it left them with a MAGI of $222,100, just $100 over the limit of IRMAA’s second tier. That means their total annual cost for Medicare Parts B and D would rise to $8,371, up from $5,765 if their income had stayed in tier 2. That’s a $2,606 penalty for $100 of extra income.

Financial planning implications

It’s worth noting that the first IRMAA tier for both singles and couples is not too daunting. It adds just $860 to the annual costs for a single filer, and $1,720 to the annual costs for a couple. But the next tier up starts to get pricey, increasing annual costs by $2,163 for a single filer and $4,372 for joint filers.

So I think people looking to take capital gains, buy a boat, make Roth conversions, etc., could feel comfortable in hitting that 2nd IRMAA tier. In fact, anyone planning on doing major Roth conversions over a period of time should probably shoot for that level, but not higher, if possible.

Anyone reaching age 63 this year, and everyone already on Medicare, should be paying careful attention to income levels each year. That means tracking capital gains distributions, dividends, pension payments, annuity income, Roth conversions, IRA withdrawals, Social Security income, etc. It’s a lot of work, but can avoid financial pain.

“To stay under I recommend working with a CPA and financial planner,” Wender said. “Most folks are completely unaware of the IRMAA charge until it’s too late. Sometimes it’s relatively easy to avoid or delay a transaction that may trigger a large capital gains tax and thus cause an IRMAA adjustment down the road.”

Another key consideration is that Required Minimum Distributions are required from traditional tax-deferred accounts beginning at age 72. If you have sizable holdings in these accounts, you could be facing years of higher Medicare premiums triggered by RMDs. And if one spouse dies, and the surviving spouse inherits tax-deferred holdings, the problem magnifies. The surviving spouse now will file a single tax return, pushing IRMAA costs much higher.

So making some Roth conversions, within reason, before reaching age 72 makes good financial sense. Plus, it’s wise to use tax-deferred accounts for charitable giving, beginning at age 70, when qualified charitable distributions are allowed.

You can appeal an IRMAA ruling

The Social Security Administration has very specific rules that will allow you to get a waiver of the IRMAA surcharge, if you meet certain criteria for a “life-changing event” in 2019, which include:

  • Work stoppage
  • Work reduction
  • Employer settlement payment
  • Death of spouse
  • Divorce

You’ll need to fill out IRS Form SSA-44 to request the waiver.

“IRMAA appeals are very hit or miss, I have had clients win and others lose,” Wender said. “I will say that it’s always worth trying.”

A closing thought

Anyone who has been on a high-deductible, too-complex corporate health care plan will appreciate the simplicity and low costs of Medicare. It’s true that Medicare is not free, and for some people it can even be relatively costly. But the coverage is much superior to traditional corporate health insurance.

People on Medicare paid into the system for many years, and as a reward get good health care insurance. Griping is allowed, but Medicare should be appreciated.

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Defying Forecasts, Inflation Disappeared In October

Summary

  • Both all-items and core inflation came in at 0.0% for the month, less than the consensus forecasts.
  • The BLS called the report “mixed,” reflecting large variances in price increases or decreases across the economy.
  • For holders of TIPS and I Bonds, non-seasonally adjusted inflation was also very close to zero, at 0.04% for the month.

Despite predictions for a moderate increase, U.S. inflation fell flat in October as deflation set in across several sectors of the economy.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was unchanged in October on a seasonally-adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all-items index increased 1.2%. Both of those numbers fell below the consensus estimates of 0.2% for the month and 1.3% for the year.

Read my full analysis on SeekingAlpha.com

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I Bond’s Fixed Rate Holds At 0.0%; EE Bonds Still Double In 20 Years

Summary

  • The U.S. Treasury did the right thing today, keeping I Bonds and EE Bonds very attractive investments, for different reasons.
  • I Bonds purchased from November 2020 to April 2021 will earn a composite annualized interest rate of 1.68% for six months.
  • EE Bonds continue to have a fixed rate of 0.1% but will double in value after 20 years, providing an effective annual return of 3.5%.

Whew, no surprises.

The U.S. Treasury just announced it is holding the fixed rate for U.S. Series I Savings Bonds at 0.0%, ending speculation that it could set a negative fixed rate for the I Bond for the first time in history. It also retained very generous terms that allow the Series EE Savings Bond to double in 20 years, earning an effective interest rate of 3.5%, much higher than market rates.

Read my full analysis on SeekingAlpha.com

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New 5-Year TIPS Gets Real Yield Of -1.32%, Lower Than Expected

Summary

  • The result, which dipped below recent market indicators, was the second-lowest real yield for any TIPS auction of this term.
  • Investors had to pay a sizable premium for this TIPS, about 7.5% above par value, to collect a coupon rate of 0.125% (plus future inflation accruals).
  • The inflation breakeven rate climbed to 1.69%. TIPS real yields have been declining at the same time nominal yields are rising.

The Treasury’s offering of $17 billion in a new five-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Security – CUSIP 91282CAQ4 – auctioned Thursday with a real yield to maturity of -1.32%, lower than expected by about 10 basis points.

That real yield (meaning the yield after inflation is calculated in) is the second lowest in the history of TIPS auctions of this term. The lowest ever was -1.496%, set by a reopening auction on Dec. 20, 2012.

Read my full analysis on SeekingAlpha.com

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This New 5-Year TIPS Might Look Ugly, But It Has Appeal

Summary

  • The U.S. Treasury will offer a new 5-year TIPS at auction Thursday.
  • The real yield looks likely to come in around -1.21%, which is pretty awful but isn’t a record low.
  • The only way to judge this TIPS is to compare it with other very safe investments of similar term. How does it measure up?

The U.S. Treasury on Thursday will offer $17 billion at auction in a new 5-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Security, CUSIP 91282CAQ4. The real yield to maturity and coupon rate will be set by the auction, but we already know, the terms are going to look fairly awful.

Real yields (meaning yields above the rate of inflation) have declined mightily in 2020, dropping from about -0.05% on January 2 for a 5-year TIPS to -1.21% at the market close on October 16. That’s a decline of a whopping 116 basis points from an already low starting point.

A TIPS is an investment that pays a coupon rate well below that of other Treasury investments of the same term. But with a TIPS, the principal balance adjusts each month (usually up, but sometimes down) to match the current U.S. inflation rate. So, the “real yield to maturity” of a TIPS indicates how much an investor will earn above (or below) inflation.

We can say with certainty that CUSIP 91282CAQ4 will auction with a coupon rate of 0.125%, the lowest the Treasury will go on a TIPS. Its real yield to maturity should be somewhere around -1.21%, meaning it will underperform official U.S. inflation by 1.21% for five years. And that 133-basis-point gap between the real yield and the coupon rate will mean investors at Thursday’s auction will have to pay a rather large premium above par value, probably somewhere around $106 for $100 of value.

So, as I said, pretty awful. But in the current environment of ultra-low interest rates for safe investments, this TIPS should be considered “above average.” Why? Because it provides a hedge against unexpected future inflation.

The Federal Reserve has openly committed to forcing annual U.S. inflation higher than 2% a year, for an extended period of time, as long as the labor market remains weak. The Fed already is holding short-term rates very close to zero, and is buying Treasurys in the open market to hold down longer-term yields. This is “quantitative easing,” which, in effect, increases the U.S. money supply. In the longer term, combined with trade barriers and stimulus spending by the federal government, it could force inflation higher.

The Fed’s first phase of quantitative easing began in mid-2011, and that coincided with real yields dipping sharply negative for an extended period. Here is a look at 5-year real yields over the last nine years, a period of nearly continuous off-and-on Federal Reserve manipulation in the Treasury market:

5-year real yields

Note that the current 5-year real yield of -1.21% hasn’t yet reached the lowest level of 2012, which actually dropped to -1.67% on September 14, 2012, according to Treasury estimates. So, could real yields continue declining? I’d say yes, but we could be nearing a bottom, unless the U.S. economy suffers a severe second phase of the pandemic.

Okay, what are the factors that make this TIPS offering attractive?

Inflation breakeven rate

With Treasury’s estimate of a 5-year Treasury note’s nominal yield currently at a woeful 0.32%, this TIPS with a yield of -1.21% would get an inflation breakeven rate of 1.53%, which indicates that the financial markets aren’t expecting inflation to rise higher than 2% anytime soon. The current U.S. inflation rate is 1.4%, and inflation over the last 5 years (ending in September) has averaged 1.8%.

Inflation expectations remain very low, and that’s surprising given the Federal Reserve’s adamant attempt to get inflation above 2.0%. And that makes this new 5-year TIPS an attractive investment, at least when measured against a 5-year nominal Treasury yielding 0.32%.

Here is the trend since 2011 in the 5-year inflation breakeven rate:

5-year inflation breakeven rate

Despite the wild swing since February 2020, the current inflation breakeven rate is sitting in a range we’ve seen before, although fairly low. I think this should make the new 5-year TIPS attractive to big-money investors like central banks and pension funds. And even for a small-scale investor, this TIPS should look more attractive than the very low return of a 5-year nominal Treasury.

But I will point out that TIPS have under-performed nominal Treasurys for about a decade, because inflation dipped much lower than expected over that period. Much of that time, inflation expectations were hovering around 1.9-2%, while actual inflation only averaged 1.8% in the last five years. When inflation runs lower than expectations, TIPS underperform.

I track how each maturing 5-year TIPS has performed against its nominal counterpart, and the picture isn’t pretty:

TIPS versus nominal Treasurys

However, keep in mind that today’s inflation breakeven rate of about 1.53% is historically low – and that indicates the potential for outperformance, especially if inflation begins exceeding expectations.

What are the alternatives?

The five-year term opens up comparisons with several very safe alternatives, most notably the U.S. Series I Savings Bond, which currently has a fixed rate (equivalent to its real yield) of 0.0%. Because the fixed rate is combined with an inflation-adjusted variable rate, I Bonds will accurately track U.S. inflation and can be redeemed after 5 years with no penalty.

Comparing TIPS with alternatives

The I Bond’s real yield is 0.0%. This TIPS will have a real yield of about -1.21%. That means the I Bond has a 121-basis-point advantage over this new TIPS. The I Bond is clearly superior. But the problem with I Bonds is that the Treasury caps electronic purchases at $10,000 per person per calendar year, plus the opportunity for $5,000 in paper I Bonds in lieu of a federal income tax refund.

I Bonds are better than TIPS, across the entire maturity spectrum. But once you reach the purchase limit, what’s your next choice?

Another option is a 5-year insured bank CD, currently offering a yield of around 1.0% at several online banking centers. This is a significant improvement over the 0.32% yield of a 5-year Treasury note, and it pushes the inflation breakeven rate for this TIPS up to 2.21%, which I think makes bank CDs attractive despite the awful return.

If you look at the chart above, you can see that the I Bond is the clear winner in all inflation scenarios above 1%. The question then becomes: what is the second-best choice? For inflation scenarios below 2.21%, the bank CD is the best second choice. For inflation scenarios above 2.21%, the 5-year TIPS is the best second choice.

If you believe inflation could rise well above 2.21%, this TIPS is a clear second choice.

Conclusion

Series I Savings Bond

U.S. Series I Savings Bonds are the best choice for an inflation-protected investment, offering a yield about 121 basis points higher than this new TIPS, with a similar 5-year term (if you choose to redeem after five years).

Once you reach the purchase cap on I Bonds, however, this 5-year TIPS becomes relatively attractive as a super-safe investment offering insurance against unexpected future inflation.

Bank CDs will perform very well, even with yields around 1.0%, if we hit a deflationary spiral. However, I’d say that 1-year CDs, with returns around 0.70%, are more attractive than a 5-year CD yielding 1.0%. A lot can happen in five years.

CUSIP 91282CAQ4 isn’t attractive, but it could work for an investor looking for protection against strongly higher future inflation. The risk is out there, it’s true. And it is wise to plan ahead against that risk.

I’ll be posting the auction results after the close at 1 p.m. Thursday EDT. If you are interested in this TIPS, make sure to track the Treasury’s yield estimates, which are posted after the market closes each weekday. Yields dropped as low as -1.35% on August 26, so beware of falling leading up to Thursday’s auction.

Here is a history of recent 4- to 5-year TIPS auctions, showing the rather wild fluctuations in real yield during this time of Federal Reserve manipulations:

5-year TIPS auction history
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