- The break-even rate details investors’ inflation expectations. It is not a predictor of future inflation.
- The trend since 1997 seems to indicate that investors underestimate future inflation. But TIPS have underperformed recently.
- Rising real yields and still-low inflation break-evens mean that TIPS are getting more attractive as an investment in 2017.
In the 11 years of TIPS auctions with completed 10-year maturities, inflation was underestimated in seven of those years, and overestimated in four of those years.