By David Enna, Tipswatch.com
Long-time readers of this site know what that headline means: I am on the move. Over the next 3+ weeks I will be traveling “Down Under.” That’s Australia, the continent with more than 20 creatures – sharks, crocs, snakes, spiders and even jumping ants — that can kill you in less than 20 minutes.
I will try hard to avoid all that danger and head toward the slightly-drunk creatures like koalas.
Some of the time, especially early in the trip, I will be in remote areas of Tasmania and central Australia. I may not have an internet connection. I will attempt to keep up with financial news and reading & answering your comments, but no promises. Expect delays. My article updates will be spotty and ill-timed.
What’s ahead
Keep in mind that eastern Australia is 16 hours ahead of Eastern Standard Time and places like Alice Springs seem off the rails — 14 1/2 hours ahead of ET. I plan to be confused.
Wednesday, Feb. 11. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the January inflation report (assuming we do not have a prolonged government shutdown) at 8:30 a.m. ET. I should be in Melbourne on that day, where it will be Thursday 12:30 a.m. My inflation analysis is going to be posted late.
I think this will be an interesting and important CPI report because it should start to clarify things as we emerge from the fog of last year’s government shutdown, when no inflation data were collected in October.
Sunday, Feb. 15. I plan to post a preview of the auction of a 30-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Security coming Thursday, Feb. 19. I should have no problem getting that up at 8 a.m. Sunday ET.
Generally, my articles about 30-year TIPS draw the smallest audiences of the year, but this auction should legitimately interest people building very long-term ladders of TIPS investments. The real yield could top 2.50%.
Thursday, Feb. 19. The 30-year TIPS auction closes at 1 p.m. ET. I will be on the coast of northeastern Australia, 16 hours ahead of ET, where it will be 5 a.m. Friday. Again, I will be late posting this news.
Wild cards?
My greatest fear is that TreasuryDirect will announce its long-hinted sweeping changes while I am on an extended trip. Or we will get a major market-moving moment, like a sudden announcement of 2,000% tariffs on Europe. I’ll be paying attention as much as I can.
In other news
President Trump announced Friday he is choosing Kevin Warsh to be the next chairman of the Federal Reserve. In his Truth Social post, he included an apparent compliment on Warsh’s good looks:
“I have known Kevin for a long period of time, and have no doubt that he will go down as one of the GREAT Fed Chairmen, maybe the best. On top of everything else, he is ‘central casting,’ and he will never let you down.”
Warsh is currently an adviser at Stanley Druckenmiller’s Duquesne Family Office, a fellow at the conservative Hoover Institution think tank and a lecturer at Stanford Business School.
This appears to be a good choice. Warsh, 55, served on the central bank’s Board of Governors from 2006 to 2011. While he has been known as an “inflation hawk” in the past, he has joined Trump this year in arguing for lower interest rates. The Wall Street Journal has called him “the conventional choice” and the selection should be greeted positively by stock and bond markets.
The announcement caused the price of gold to fall 10% on Friday, and silver, 20%. Investors in those metals had been betting on a decline in Fed independence and the potential for high inflation. The declines seem, in a way, to be an endorsement for Warsh.
He may face trouble getting Senate approval — but not because of his experience or views. Sen Thom Tillis and other Republicans are threatening to hold up Fed appointments until the potential criminal investigation of current Fed chair Jerome Powell is cleared.
Will Jerome Powell stay on at the Fed after his term as chairman ends? I doubt it. The man looks tired and worn after years of guiding this mighty central bank. For the most part, he deserves credit for doing very good work (my opinion).
I was a Powell critic in the years of aggressive bond-buying by the Fed and ultra-low interest rates, but I respect that he did stand fast in the next phase: an epic battle with 40-year-high inflation, that yes, he helped to cause. Powell and the Fed learned a harsh lesson that inflation remains a risk.
On Wednesday, Powell’s words of advice for the next chair were: “Stay out of elected politics, don’t get pulled into elected politics. Don’t do it.” Excellent advice.
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Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities 
Even if it is valid to criticize Powell for excessive Quantitative Easing (QE), you can certainly argue that he and the Fed did their best in the unprecedented crisis (at least in our lifetimes) known as Covid. What if he hadn’t manipulated the money supply and this country was starved for liquidity? It would have been the Great Depression all over again, maybe worse. Ditto for Helicopter Ben Bernanke with the 2008 sub-prime housing crisis causing the Great Recession. Would have also been the Great Depression if Bernanke hadn’t unleashed QE. You can criticize Powell, Yellen, Bernanke for not abandoning QE soon enough and pivoting to QT sooner but I do believe these were and are honorable people doing the best they could in the heat of battle.
With the current administration rolling back as many regulations as they can we should expect additional crises in the coming years. Let’s hope Kevin Warsh and whoever is with him on the Fed have the judgement and fortitude to try and do the right things when those crises hit.
Here’s hoping Kevin Warsh is not the next Arthur Burns and that President Trump does not try and impose price controls to deal with inflation. Both of which (Burns and Price Controls) were disastrous under President Nixon.
Even if it is valid to criticize Powell for excessive Quantitative Easing (QE), you can certainly argue that he and the Fed did their best in the unprecedented crisis (at least in our lifetimes) known as Covid. What if he hadn’t manipulated the money supply and this country was starved for liquidity? It would have been the Great Depression all over again, maybe worse. Ditto for Helicopter Ben Bernanke with the 2008 sub-prime housing crisis causing the Great Recession. Would have also been the Great Depression if Bernanke hadn’t unleashed QE. You can criticize Powell, Yellen, Bernanke for not abandoning QE soon enough and pivoting to QT sooner but I do believe these were and are honorable people doing the best they could in the heat of battle.
With the current administration rolling back as many regulations as they can we should expect additional crises in the coming years. Let’s hope Kevin Warsh and whoever is with him on the Fed have the judgement and fortitude to try and do the right things when those crises hit.
Here’s hoping Kevin Warsh is not the next Arthur Burns and that President Trump does not try and impose price controls to deal with inflation. Both of which (Burns and Price Controls) were disastrous under President Nixon.
Enjoy your trip to Australia. I’ve been on business to Sydney and New Castle and they were great trips. I found everything VERY expensive in Australia. The new Fed Chair will have a lot of fun with Trump and a massive federal deficit.
A Bad Heir Day at the Fed
No, Kevin Warsh isn’t qualified
Paul Krugman
Jan 30, 2026
https://open.substack.com/pub/paulkrugman/p/a-bad-heir-day-at-the-fed?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web
I consider the new Fed chair pick an attempt to undo the damage of the DOJ opening an unprecedented and vindictive criminal investigation into the current Chairman of the Federal Reserve over a building renovation — the damage being retribution for not doing the presidents bidding to lower interest rates as fast as he wanted which is seen as an attack on the independence of the Fed, and attempting to resuscitate the value of the dollar which has been on life support, or at a minimum weakened around the world and has caused massive spikes in the price of gold and silver as a hedge against the dollar falling out of favor as the worlds reserve currency. I don’t see any way that investigation isn’t ended prior to May when Powell’s term expires. Whether he stays on or not (I think not) just the fact that he navigated a post-pandemic supply chain induced Inflation crisis almost better than any other country in the world who experienced the same thing cements his legacy as an effective Fed chair. And as you pointed out, it is completely vacuous (and comical as well as insulting) to have the President of the United States refer to a nominee’s appearance as part of the rationale of his selection. But I’m the long list of outrages, it probably shoots to the very bottom. This, in the end, seems like a positive choice, and hopefully undoes a lot of the damage in the confidence of the Administrarion that we have seen with less than accurate Inflation data and the degree to which the Fed will remain independent. The period between May and a November midterm election should be an interesting one to watch. I will bet on Fed rate cuts during that period..
Have a great trip, David. Uluru is a very special place. If you haven’t already, buy head nets to guard against relentless swarms of bush flies that are active during daylight hours. We unfortunately didn’t make it to Tasmania, as our trip got cut short in March 2020 (thankfully we made it out on the last scheduled flight from Melbourne as the world was shutting down).
Enjoy your trip! I have been to Australia 3 times. Sydney is one of the most beautiful cities in the world. The Great Barrier Reef is amazing if you care to snorkle. I also drove the Great Ocean Road with my then boyfriend in the south and took in gorgeous vistas. The wine country outside of Adelaide (Barossa Valley) is worth a visit if you like Shiraz. You won’t be able to do everything.
Beware the Australian sun and cover your body! Sunburn can happen quickly before you know it. Australia is very far away from everything else and at some point I realized I was on a continent, not just a country. So the distances are much farther than you imagine.
Trump also nominated Brett Matsumoto ,an economist at the BLS since 2015., to head the BLS. WSJ says “Matsumoto’s work at the agency has mostly been focused on how the BLS calculates inflation” and that he improved health care measurements and is respected within the agency.
Trump said he was “reputable, trusted” which shows he learned something from the debacle surrounding the previous nominee. But what “trusted ” means to Trump can be very different from what it means to other people.
This news broke after I departed. When I saw bilateral support for Matsumoto, including from liberal economist Claudia Sahm, I felt like this was a very good choice.
David, enjoy your trip down under. I spent a month visiting the Melbourne area in December and had a hard time coming up with a reason not to just stay permanently.
Whatever modicum of success Powell had in his tenure, he’s been a whiner. Don’t get involved with elective politics?? Here, hold my beer while I gift a 50 basis point rate cut to boost President Autopen’s chances in 2024… Time to turn the page.
If I’m Powell, I stay on. The President is vindictive even after he gets what he wants. So leaving the Fed just exposes Powell as he will no longer have the “don’t interfere” market protection that he has now. Staying on the Fed insulates Powell from continued legal harassment. But that’s just me, reading the room.