Forecast: Social Security COLA for 2026 should be around 2.8%

Posted on July 18, 2025 by Tipswatch

Of course, this forecast, and every other one you read, may be wrong.

AI image for “Social Security COLA.” Classic! Source: Perchance.org

By David Enna, Tipswatch.com

It’s July, and that means it is time for my annual adventure trying to forecast next year’s Social Security cost-of-living adjustment. I’m usually fairly accurate, but rarely 100% correct.

Last year, on July 28, I predicted the COLA would come in at 2.7%. Instead it was 2.5%. In 2023, I projected a range of 3.0% to 3.2%, and the result was 3.2%. You get the picture. This is not an exact science. But it is important to understand the needlessly complex way the COLA is calculated, which is rarely explained in mainstream media.

  • The index. The Social Security Administration does not use the standard measure of inflation that you see reported each month. Instead it uses CPI-W, the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, which often runs slightly lower than the standard CPI-U. See this.
  • The time period. Instead of using a specific annual rate of inflation, the SSA looks at an average of CPI-W indexes for three months, July to September, and compares that to the average from a year earlier. In 2024, for example, the three-month average was 308.729, an increase of 2.5% over the average for 2023. So the COLA for 2025 was set at 2.5%.
  • The summer months. Inflation can be notoriously volatile in the months of July to September. We could easily see a month of high-ish inflation, or a month of deflation. That means any Social Security COLA projection — including mine — is just an educated guess.

The June inflation report, released this week, set the baseline for this COLA calculation. For June, the BLS set the CPI-W index at 315.945, an increase of 2.6% over the last year. So does that mean the Social Security COLA will end up being 2.6%? No, that is the baseline, but the actual COLA calculation will be based on the average of CPI-W indexes for July to September.

In this chart, I have provided five potential monthly inflation scenarios for the July to September period — 0.0% per month to 0.4% per month — and then calculated the effect on the eventual Social Security COLA.

Most likely, none of these scenarios will end up being accurate. Anything can happen, including a bout of deflation. But I think the scenario with the highest probability is inflation averaging close to 0.3% a month over the three months, resulting in a Social Security COLA in the range of 2.8% to 3.0%. So in my headline I said “around 2.8%.”

That’s a conservative estimate (the COLA could be higher). This is a risky prediction because inflation often flops around in the summer months — some months higher, some months lower. But 2025 is an unusual year, because 1) the inflationary effect of U.S. tariffs is starting to be felt across the economy, and 2) the baseline inflation numbers for 2024 were quite low, making a higher increase this year more likely.

No summer month in 2024 recorded an inflation rate of 0.2%, and in fact in August CPI-W inflation was very close to zero. I based my projection last year (conservatively, I must say) at 0.2% a month. That is why my prediction was too high.

According to the SSA, the average Social Security benefit payment for retired workers in June 2025 was $1,952. Increase that amount by 2.8% and you get a monthly payment of $2007, an increase of about $55 a month.

What others are saying

Everything I wrote up to this point was done before checking any other forecasts (my annual tradition). So let’s now see what others are predicting:

This is from Money.com:

New estimates released Tuesday from both The Senior Citizens League, or TSCL, and independent Social Security and Medicare policy analyst Mary Johnson put the upcoming COLA between 2.6% and 2.7%, based on inflation data through June.

The Senior Citizens League puts a lot of research behind its forecast, so it has credibility. Its prediction is lower than mine, so there you go. I would tend to lean on the higher side this year. (Last year, the League predicted an increase of 2.6%, better than my prediction of 2.7%.)

Rising Medicare costs

And now the bad news … Medicare Part B monthly premiums are automatically deducted from Social Security for most enrollees. Medicare is predicting that the standard Part B premium will increase from $185 to $206.50 in 2026. That’s an 11.6% jump, much higher than the likely increase in the Social Security COLA.

The same thing happened this year, when the COLA increased 3.2% but Part B costs increased about 6%. See more on this topic. The net effect is that retiree benefits will be falling behind inflation. But some of that pain will be eased by the new $6,000 boost in the standard deduction for many people over 65.

SSA COLA versus CPI

The combination of using CPI-W and the smoothing effect of a three-month average often results in the Social Security COLA being lower than annual CPI. The Senior Citizens League has lobbied for years to replace CPI-W with CPI-E, an index that more accurately reflects costs faced by older Americans.

However, for benefits in 2025 the COLA was 2.5%, slightly surpassing CPI-U at 2.4%. The reverse could happen this year, even if the COLA reaches 2.8%.

Also see: Medicare costs for 2024 are rising faster than U.S. inflation

— Does The Social Security COLA Shortchange Seniors?

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Donate? This site is free and I plan to keep it that way. Some readers have suggested having a way to contribute. I would welcome donations. Any amount, or skip it, your choice. This is completely optional.

PayPal link / Venmo link

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Follow Tipswatch on X for updates on daily Treasury auctions and real yield trends (when I am not traveling).

Feel free to post comments or questions below. If it is your first-ever comment, it will have to wait for moderation. After that, your comments will automatically appear. Please stay on topic and avoid political tirades. NOTE: Comment threads can only be three responses deep. If you see that you cannot respond, create a new comment and reference the topic.

David Enna is a financial journalist, not a financial adviser. He is not selling or profiting from any investment discussed. I Bonds and TIPS are not “get rich” investments; they are best used for capital preservation and inflation protection. They can be purchased through the Treasury or other providers without fees, commissions or carrying charges. Please do your own research before investing.

Posted in Inflation, Medicare, Retirement, Social Security | 11 Comments

Inflation jumped higher in June to annual rate of 2.7%

Posted on July 15, 2025 by Tipswatch

By David Enna, Tipswatch.com

As economists expected, U.S. all-items inflation moved higher in June, up 0.3% for the month and 2.7% year over year, well above the annual rate in May of 2.4%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported.

Core inflation, which removes food and energy, was up 0.2% for the month and 2.9% for the year, up from 2.8% in May. These numbers are seasonally adjusted.

The monthly increases may be showing some effects of U.S. tariffs, but the annual increases can also partly be explained by weak inflation a year ago in June 2024, which surprisingly dipped into deflation at -0.1%. So this year’s annual increase can partly be explained by that low base number a year ago.

Let’s dive into the June details:

  • Shelter costs rose a moderate 0.2% in June, helping to keep a lid on core inflation. But these costs are up 3.8% over the 12 months.
  • Costs of medical care services increased 0.6% for the month and are up 3.4% for the year.
  • Gasoline prices rose 1.0% for the month after falling 2.6% in May. Over the 12 months gas prices have declined 8.3%.
  • Electricity costs rose 1% for the month and 5.8% for the year.
  • Food at home costs rose 0.3% for the month and are up 2.4% for the year.
  • The index for coffee rose 2.2% in June. (Tariffs?)
  • Costs of fruits and vegetables increased 0.9% for the month. (Tariffs?)
  • Apparel costs rose 0.4% in June after falling 0.4% in May. (Tariffs?)
  • Costs of household furnishings rose 1.0% for the month. (Tariffs?)
  • Costs of new vehicles fell 0.3% in June, same as in May and are up only 0.2% year over year.
  • Costs of used cars and trucks fell 0.7% for the month.

Overall, this is a fairly tame inflation report, matching expectations. There does appear to be some tariff effect in these price increases, but at this point it is not substantial. Eventually, I’d expect to see prices for new and used vehicles to begin rising, as permanent tariff rates settle in.

Here is the trend in annual all-items and core inflation over the last 12 months, with all-items inflation showing a clear upswing higher.:

And this trend could continue for several months because of “base-effect” increases from weak inflation a year ago. It seems likely that all-items inflation could rise above 3.0% in coming months:

What this means for TIPS and I Bonds

Investors in Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities and U.S. Series I Savings Bonds are also interested in non-seasonally adjusted inflation, which is used to adjust principal balances for TIPS and set future interest rates for I Bonds. For June, the BLS set the inflation index at 322.561, an increase of 0.34% over May’s number.

For TIPS. The June inflation index means that principal balances for all TIPS will increase by 0.34% in August, after a 0.21% increase in July. Here are the new August Inflation Indexes for all TIPS.

For I Bonds. June marks the mid-point of a six-month stretch that will determine the I Bond’s new inflation-adjusted variable rate, which will be reset on November 1. So far, three months in, inflation has increased 0.86%. That translates to a variable rate of 1.72%, but it’s too early to make any judgments, especially because of coming tariff uncertainty. Here are the data:

View historical data on my Inflation and I Bonds page.

What this means for the Social Security COLA

June inflation sets the baseline for determining Social Security’s cost-of-living adjustment for 2026. The actual calculation depends on the average of a different index — the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) — over the months of July to September.

As of June, CPI-W has increased 2.6% year over year. That’s the baseline and it most likely will NOT be next year’s increase. I will be writing more on this topic in coming days. You will soon see a lot of projections in the media — most of them should be ignored.

What this means for future interest rates

I’d say “not much.” The core inflation monthly number — at 0.2% — was below expectations, even though the annual rate ticked higher to 2.9%. This isn’t a horrible inflation report, but it is showing hints of the effects of U.S. tariffs, which could magnify in future months. Plus, the weak inflation numbers from summer 2024 are going to put 2025 inflation on a higher track.

From Bloomberg’s Anna Wong:

Monthly core CPI inflation picked up from very soft to soft in June as firms passed tariff costs through to consumer prices at a brisker pace. Those gains were offset by disinflation for vehicles and hotels as consumers pull back on non-essential expenses. …

While the soft CPI might appear to boost the odds of a September rate cut, we expect a hot June print for the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — the core PCE deflator, due out July 31. PCE prints may stay elevated all summer.

At this point, I’d say the Fed will continue to be on hold through the summer as it waits to see how the tariff rollout proceeds.

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Donate? This site is free and I plan to keep it that way. Some readers have suggested having a way to contribute. I would welcome donations. Any amount, or skip it, your choice. This is completely optional.

PayPal link / Venmo link

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Follow Tipswatch on X for updates on daily Treasury auctions and real yield trends (when I am not traveling).

Feel free to post comments or questions below. If it is your first-ever comment, it will have to wait for moderation. After that, your comments will automatically appear. Please stay on topic and avoid political tirades. NOTE: Comment threads can only be three responses deep. If you see that you cannot respond, create a new comment and reference the topic.

David Enna is a financial journalist, not a financial adviser. He is not selling or profiting from any investment discussed. I Bonds and TIPS are not “get rich” investments; they are best used for capital preservation and inflation protection. They can be purchased through the Treasury or other providers without

Posted in Federal Reserve, I Bond, Inflation, Investing in TIPS, Social Security, Tariffs | Tagged , , , , , , | 14 Comments

A 10-year TIPS is maturing July 15. How did it do as an investment?

Posted on July 13, 2025 by Tipswatch

Answer: Very well, in keeping with recent trends.

By David Enna, Tipswatch.com

Back on July 23, 2015, the U.S. Treasury auctioned a fairly routine 10-year TIPS, CUSIP 912828XL9, generating a real yield to maturity of 0.491% and a coupon rate of 0.375%.

That’s a low real yield by today’s standards, but fairly normal during the Federal Reserve’s era of bond-buying quantitative easing. A real yield of 0.491% was actually a nice step up from the negative-yield depths of 2012 to mid 2013.

Treasury estimates, close of market. Click on image for larger version.

In my preview article for this auction, I noted, “This auction is shaping up as ‘upper middle of the recent pack.’ Not exciting, but also not horribly unattractive.”

Inflation breakeven rate. At the auction’s close, a 10-year nominal Treasury note was trading with a yield of 2.29%, setting up an inflation-breakeven rate of 1.79%, which I noted back then was “solidly in the ‘cheap’ range for a 10-year TIPS.”

Now, 10-years later, that low inflation breakeven rate made CUSIP 912828XL9 a very attractive investment, at least compared to the nominal 10-year Treasury of the time. Annual inflation over that decade averaged 3.1%, well above the inflation breakeven rate. The TIPS was easily the superior investment.

The final investment results for this TIPS were set by the May inflation report released June 11. Data from Eyebonds.info show this TIPS generated a 10-year nominal annual return of 3.529%, easily exceeding the comparable T-note at 2.29%.

For its time, CUSIP 912828XL9 was a very good investment.

TIPS versus an I Bond

An I Bond issued in July 2015 had a fixed rate of 0.0%, which means its return should be lower than a TIPS with a real yield of 0.491%. According to Eyebonds.info, that July 2015 I Bond will have had, through January 2026, an annual nominal return of 2.91%. That is better than the nominal Treasury at 2.29%, but lags behind the TIPS.

TIPS versus other alternatives

The total bond market, defined by Vanguard’s Total Bond ETF (BND), has had an average annual return of 1.69% over the last 10 years. This lagging performance was primarily triggered by a -13.1% total return in 2022 as the Fed began aggressively raising interest rates.

The TIP ETF, which hold all maturities of TIPS, has had an average total return of 2.49% over the 10 years. VTIP, the short-term TIPS ETF, had an average return of 2.84%.

Thoughts

There is an obvious lesson here: TIPS do well when inflation is higher than expected, and that is exactly why we invest in TIPS — to protect against that possibility. When compared to similar investments, buying this 10-year TIPS in July 2015 and holding to maturity was a sound move. (I nibbled into this TIPS with a very small investment at the July 2015 auction.)

TIPS have been on a winning streak for several years, caused by the surge to 40-year high inflation that peaked in June 2022 at 9.1%. Even today, annual inflation (2.4%) is running higher than the auctioned breakeven rates of 2015. And so TIPS have been the winners versus nominal Treasurys in recent years.

10-year TIPS vs nominal
Click on image for larger version. More data on my TIPS vs. nominal page.

Notes and qualifications

My chart is an estimate of performance comparing inflation breakeven rates versus actual inflation.

Keep in mind that interest on a nominal Treasury and the TIPS coupon rate is paid out as current-year income and not reinvested. So in the case of a nominal Treasury, the interest earned could be reinvested elsewhere, which would potentially boost the gain. For certain, we don’t know what the investor could have earned precisely on an investment after re-investments.

In the case of a TIPS, the inflation adjustment compounds over time, and that will give TIPS a slight boost in return that isn’t reflected in the “average inflation” numbers presented in the chart.

• Now is an ideal time to build a TIPS ladder

• Confused by TIPS? Read my Q&A on TIPS

• TIPS in depth: Understand the language

• TIPS on the secondary market: Things to consider

• TIPS investor: Don’t over-think the threat of deflation

• Upcoming schedule of TIPS auctions

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Donate? This site is free and I plan to keep it that way. Some readers have suggested having a way to contribute. I would welcome donations. Any amount, or skip it, your choice. This is completely optional.

PayPal link / Venmo link

—————————

Follow Tipswatch on X for updates on daily Treasury auctions and real yield trends (when I am not traveling).

Feel free to post comments or questions below. If it is your first-ever comment, it will have to wait for moderation. After that, your comments will automatically appear. Please stay on topic and avoid political tirades. NOTE: Comment threads can only be three responses deep. If you see that you cannot respond, create a new comment and reference the topic.

David Enna is a financial journalist, not a financial adviser. He is not selling or profiting from any investment discussed. I Bonds and TIPS are not “get rich” investments; they are best used for capital preservation and inflation protection. They can be purchased through the Treasury or other providers without fees, commissions or carrying charges. Please do your own research before investing.

Posted in Federal Reserve, I Bond, Inflation, Investing in TIPS, TreasuryDirect | 14 Comments

Vanguard launches VTP, a new full-range TIPS ETF

Posted on July 11, 2025 by Tipswatch

By David Enna, Tipswatch.com

Vanguard’s lineup of bond exchange-traded funds has long had a missing piece: An ETF that indexes the performance of the full spectrum of maturities for Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities.

Vanguard’s only option was VTIP, its Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities ETF, which has been around since October 2012. It is based on index that includes all TIPS maturities of less than 5 years.

I like VTIP because volatility is held down by its short duration. For that reason it tends to track changes in inflation better than longer-term funds, which offer more potential for capital gains, or losses. VTIP also has an Admiral Shares mutual fund version, VTAPX.

In addition, since June 2005, Vanguard has offered a mutual fund with the full range of TIPS maturities: VAIPX is the Admiral Shares version. Now it is launching VTP, a new ETF that is similar to, but not a clone of, VAIPX.

In its press release for this ETF (one of several new issues) Vanguard notes:

VTP provides long-term investors with a robust tool designed to protect their portfolios from inflation risk. It offers exposure to the full spectrum of the U.S. TIPS market, complementing our existing Vanguard Short-Term Inflation Protected ETF (VTIP). VTP has a broader investment universe and a longer duration profile, launching with an expense ratio of 0.05%. It could be a valuable addition for those looking to hedge against inflation over extended periods.

If you are interested, here is the prospectus.

In most cases, I’d caution against investing in a brand-new ETF, but Vanguard has a lot of experience in this sort of index investment. Most investors would prefer to go with a similar ETF over the Admiral Shares mutual fund, which requires a minimum investment of $50,000 and actually has a slightly higher expense ratio, 0.10% versus 0.05% for VTP.

The only issues are:

  • Would you prefer to invest in a TIPS ETF versus buying individual TIPS and holding to maturity? And then …
  • If you want to go the ETF route, would you prefer to go with the lower-volatility shorter duration VTIP versus the longer-range scope of VTP?

We can’t do a direct comparison of the ETFs yet, but let’s look at how VTIP and VAIPX have performed, with the addition of the full-range iShares TIP and Schwab SCHP ETFs:

This information, gathered from Vanguard’s site, shows that VTP is not an exact duplicate of VAIPX. It is holding fewer issues, and its average duration is shorter. There are 53 TIPS currently trading in the secondary market.

Also, as you can see, VTIP has out-performed the full-maturity VAIPX over 1-year, 5-year and 10-year periods, during a time of high volatility in the Treasury market. However, if we entered another era of quantitative easing, with strongly lower real yields, VAIPX and VTP (along with TIP and SCHP) would likely outperform VTIP.

Thoughts

I don’t currently invest in any TIPS mutual funds or ETFs. I have used VTIP in the past as a holding fund while waiting to make future investments. I favor VTIP because of the lower volatility. The new ETF, VTP, should over time closely track TIP, the biggest TIPS ETF, which has a higher expense ratio of 0.18%.

My preference, as always, is to build a ladder of TIPS investments to be held to maturity, providing inflation-protected cash for future needs.

Now, here is a bonus. Morningstar’s Long View podcast this week featured Salim Ramji, one year into his tenure as CEO at Vanguard. He talks about the firm’s efforts to simplify investing and improve customer service:

• Now is an ideal time to build a TIPS ladder

• Confused by TIPS? Read my Q&A on TIPS

• TIPS in depth: Understand the language

• TIPS on the secondary market: Things to consider

• TIPS investor: Don’t over-think the threat of deflation

• Upcoming schedule of TIPS auctions

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Donate? This site is free and I plan to keep it that way. Some readers have suggested having a way to contribute. I would welcome donations. Any amount, or skip it, your choice. This is completely optional.

PayPal link / Venmo link

—————————

Follow Tipswatch on X for updates on daily Treasury auctions and real yield trends (when I am not traveling).

Feel free to post comments or questions below. If it is your first-ever comment, it will have to wait for moderation. After that, your comments will automatically appear. Please stay on topic and avoid political tirades. NOTE: Comment threads can only be three responses deep. If you see that you cannot respond, create a new comment and reference the topic.

David Enna is a financial journalist, not a financial adviser. He is not selling or profiting from any investment discussed. I Bonds and TIPS are not “get rich” investments; they are best used for capital preservation and inflation protection. They can be purchased through the Treasury or other providers without fees, commissions or carrying charges. Please do your own research before investing.

Posted in Inflation, Investing in TIPS | Tagged , , , , , | 20 Comments

A retirement planning expert dives into the Big Beautiful Bill

Posted on July 9, 2025 by Tipswatch

By David Enna, Tipswatch.com

Just to give you an idea of how complicated taxes are: For my last post, discussing the tax on Social Security benefits, I made 27 edits and revisions within a day of publishing as I received new information from commenters and other sources.

And that was just one area of the 870-page One Big Beautiful Bill. Grasping this is a challenge. Feeling daring? Read it.

Andy Panko

Now I am looking to other sources I trust for as-accurate-as-possible information. One of those is financial adviser Andy Panko, who founded Tenon Financial in 2019 and also runs Facebook’s Retirement Planning Education group, a valuable resource. Panko also has a lot of expertise in tax matters.

I’ve followed Panko’s work for at least 6 years. He admittedly is a “super nerd,” but also a straightforward communicator and — importantly — won’t try to sell you anything. His firm charges a flat fee for financial advice and management. (I am not a client and I am not connected to his firm.)

I featured Panko in an April 2022 post providing his commentary on I Bonds, unusual for a financial adviser. This week, Panko created a podcast taking a deep dive into the Big Beautiful Bill, focusing on areas that would most affect individuals nearing or in retirement.

Here is the link I posted on X:

If needed, here is a link directly to the podcast.

This is worth a listen (45 minutes), but if you don’t have the time or patience, you can read Panko’s excellent 8-page summary of the key individual income tax provisions of the One Big Beautiful Bill.

Panko covers a lot of ground, including “things that are not changing,” which includes the tax on Social Security benefits. He says:

Contrary to what you may have heard or read (including directly from the Social Security Administration itself), the bill makes NO changes to how Social Security is taxed. Social Security is still taxable at the federal level, and the bill makes no particular carveouts or direct exemptions to this. As such, it’s flat out false for anyone to say or insinuate the bill made Social Security not taxable.

For anyone concerned, beyond this one issue Panko is steadfastly neutral politically in his analysis. These are some of the other topics covered:

  • Permanency of the current federal tax rates
  • Permanency, and a slight increase, to the current standard deduction amounts
  • A new temporary personal exemption up to $6,000 per person 65 or older
  • Permanency, and a slight increase, to the lifetime gift and estate size exemption
  • Permanency of the current Alternative Minimum Tax exclusion amount, but reduction/reversion of its income phase out levels
  • Permanency of the $750,000 limit on residential mortgage principal against which interest can be deducted
  • Permanency of the elimination of miscellaneous itemized deductions
  • Temporary increase to $40,000 for State and Local Tax (“SALT”) deductions
  • A new permanent charitable deduction for people who use the standard deduction, beginning in 2026.
  • A new minimum AGI-based floor on charitable donations before donations can be itemized deductions
  • A temporary exclusion from income tax of up to $25,000 tip income
  • A temporary exclusion from income tax of up to $25,000 of overtime income
  • A temporary deduction of up to $10,000 of interest loans to buy cars whose final assembly was in the U.S.
  • Recissions of multiple “Green New Deal” tax credits such as electric vehicle credits and residential clean energy credits
  • Creation of new “Trump” savings accounts for children under 18

That’s an exhaustive (or maybe exhausting) list of topics to cover in a 45-minute podcast. Panko does a great job, and for later look-backs, save a link to the document form of his analysis, which closes with:

There is A LOT going on in the OBBBA, and it will take time for me and the rest of the industry to fully digest and understand it. This was my best crack at breaking it down as quickly and thoroughly as possible.

Most likely, we will learn a few more complexities — and smart ways to take advantage of the changes — but this is a great start for your tax planning for 2025 and beyond.

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Donate? This site is free and I plan to keep it that way. Some readers have suggested having a way to contribute. I would welcome donations. Any amount, or skip it, your choice. This is completely optional.

PayPal link / Venmo link

—————————

Follow Tipswatch on X for updates on daily Treasury auctions and real yield trends (when I am not traveling).

Feel free to post comments or questions below. If it is your first-ever comment, it will have to wait for moderation. After that, your comments will automatically appear. Please stay on topic and avoid political tirades. NOTE: Comment threads can only be three responses deep. If you see that you cannot respond, create a new comment and reference the topic.

David Enna is a financial journalist, not a financial adviser. He is not selling or profiting from any investment discussed. I Bonds and TIPS are not “get rich” investments; they are best used for capital preservation and inflation protection. They can be purchased through the Treasury or other providers without fees, commissions or carrying charges. Please do your own research before investing.

Posted in Retirement, Social Security, Taxes | Tagged , , , , | 7 Comments