In a volatile week, auction of new 10-year TIPS gets a real yield of 1.940%, a nice result for investors

By David Enna, Tipswatch.com

All week, I have been calling today’s auction of $21 billion in a new 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Security — CUSIP 91282CPU9 — the hardest to forecast in a decade.

At times, the most recent 10-year TIPS on the secondary market was trading with a real yield as low as 1.82%, but the Treasury was estimating a real yield of 1.97% on Tuesday. That’s a gigantic spread.

The reason for this week’s volatility, early on, was clearly President Trump’s implicit threats against Greenland and potential new tariffs on much of Europe. But on Wednesday that all turned around with a “framework” of a deal on Greenland and dismissal of the tariff threat.

A key auction question remained: How much trust will investors — especially foreign investors — have in U.S. Treasurys amid this turmoil?

Today’s auction results could have been an indication of slipping trust. The when-issued forecast for the auction, released just before the close, was for a real yield 0f 1.92%. The end-result of 1.940% is a pretty big miss, indicating weak demand. The bid-to-cover ratio was 2.38, not bad.

The auction set the coupon rate for this TIPS at 1.875%.

Definition: The “real yield to maturity” of a TIPS is its yield above official future U.S. inflation, over the term of the TIPS. So a real yield of 1.940% means an investment in this TIPS would provide a return that exceeds U.S. inflation by 1.94% for 10 years..

This is the first TIPS ever issued that will mature in 2036, so it was probably in high demand for small-scale investors building ladders of TIPS into future years. For those investors, a real yield of 1.940% was a pleasant surprise. Here is the trend in the 10-year real yield over the last year:

Click on image for larger version.

Pricing

Because the coupon rate of 1.875% was set below the real yield of 1.940%, investors got a discounted unadjusted price of 99.413260. In addition, this TIPS will carry an inflation index of 0.99779 on the settlement date of January 30, caused by deflation of -0.46% reported for November 2025. With that information, we can calculate the cost of a $10,000 par value investment in this TIPS:

  • Par value: $10,000.
  • Principal purchased on settlement date: $10,000 x 0.99779 = $9,977.90.
  • Cost of investment: $9,977.90 x 0.99413260 = $9,919.36
  • + accrued interest of $7.75.

In summary, an investor purchasing $10,000 par value at today’s auction is paying $9,919.36 for $9,977.90 of principal on the settlement date. From then on, the investor earns accruals matching future inflation for 10 years, plus an annual coupon rate of 1.875% paid on inflation-adjusted principal.

Inflation breakeven rate

At the auction’s close, the 10-year Treasury note was trading with a nominal yield of 4.25%, which creates an inflation-breakeven rate of 2.31%, more or less in line with recent trends. This means the TIPS will out-perform the nominal Treasury if inflation averages more than 2.31% over the next 10 years.

Here is the trend in the 10-year inflation breakeven rate over the last year:

Click on image for larger version.

Thoughts

For months, I have been signaling I was going to be a buyer at today’s auction, as long as real yields held up. And, yes, I was a buyer. It was a strange and uncertain week, maybe in line with of our “new normal.” Both the stock and bond markets have rebounded nicely from the early-week turmoil.

This will most likely be my only TIPS purchase of the year. But investors interested in building TIPS ladders should continue watching yields for TIPS maturing in 2040 and beyond, all with real yields of 2.0% and higher, sometimes much higher.

Will real yields surge higher because of a “sell-America” trade or begin falling as the Federal Reserve eventually resumes rate cuts later this year? I have no idea, honestly. But buying a TIPS with an above-inflation yield of 1.94% — and holding to maturity — is a safe-enough bet for me.

Coming up: On Sunday, I will post my I Bond buying guide for 2026. Watch for that.

Meanwhile, here is a summary of recent results for 9- to 10-year TIPS auctions:

Confused by TIPS? Read my Q&A on TIPS

TIPS in depth: Understand the language

TIPS on the secondary market: Things to consider

TIPS investor: Don’t over-think the threat of deflation

Upcoming schedule of TIPS auctions

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Donate? This site is free and I plan to keep it that way. Some readers have suggested having a way to contribute. I would welcome donations. Any amount, or skip it, your choice. This is completely optional.

PayPal link / Venmo link

—————————

Follow Tipswatch on X for updates on daily Treasury auctions and real yield trends (when I am not traveling).

Feel free to post comments or questions below. If it is your first-ever comment, it will have to wait for moderation. After that, your comments will automatically appear. Please stay on topic and avoid political tirades. NOTE: Comment threads can only be three responses deep. If you see that you cannot respond, create a new comment and reference the topic.

David Enna is a financial journalist, not a financial adviser. He is not selling or profiting from any investment discussed. I Bonds and TIPS are not “get rich” investments; they are best used for capital preservation and inflation protection. They can be purchased through the Treasury or other providers without fees, commissions or carrying charges. Please do your own research before investing.

Posted in Federal Reserve, Inflation, Investing in TIPS, TreasuryDirect | Tagged , , | 20 Comments

Is this week’s new 10-year TIPS worth targeting?

For me, definitely. But it’s a personal decision.

AI image for “investor targets far-off $ target.” His aim looks bad. Google Gemini.

By David Enna, Tipswatch.com

Something unique is coming this week: The first-ever Treasury Inflation-Protected Security to mature in the year 2036. For that reason, and the fact that real yields remain attractive, I will be a buyer.

This is CUSIP 91282CPU9, a new 10-year TIPS that will auction Thursday. The coupon rate and real yield to maturity will be determined by the auction results. I have targeted this TIPS for a long time as the 2036 addition to my ladder of TIPS investments that stretches to 2043.

No TIPS were ever issued with maturities in years 2036 to 2039 for two reasons: 1) the Treasury stopped issuing 20-year TIPS in November 2009 and 2) the 30-year TIPS auctions were halted from October 2001 to February 2010. That left investors with gap years.

As a compulsive ladder builder, I want to fill those 2036 to 2039 years and I have set up my traditional IRA to allow purchases in January 2026 to 2029 — as long as real yields remain attractive.

This January auction size, by the way, is $21 billion, up from $20 billion for a matching auction in January 2025, but holding steady with the size of the new TIPS issued in July 2025. This marks a break in the Treasury’s recent practice of raising the size of its January TIPS auction.

Real yields

At this point, the 10-year real yield is about 1.91%, according to the Treasury’s yield curve estimates. However, the most recent 10-year TIPS trading on the secondary market closed Friday at 1.88%, so we have a bit of fuzziness.

The Treasury market was shaken last week with news that the Justice Department served Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell with subpoenas in an apparent criminal probe. Powell responded with a strong statement criticizing the action as threatening Fed independence.

My initial reaction was that this kind of controversy should cause inflation expectations to rise, since an independent Fed has a key role in controlling inflation. While it might not seem logical, when inflation expectations rise, the real yield of a TIPS is likely to fall, at least compared to a nominal Treasury of the same term.

And that is what happened in the last week:

The Treasury’s estimate of the real yield of a 10-year TIPS rose only 1 basis point over the last week, while the nominal yield of a 10-year Treasury note rose 6 basis points. This isn’t a huge deal, but does indicate that real yields could continue shifting this week. (The bond market will be closed Monday for Martin Luther King Jr. Day.)

So far, I’d say the market isn’t pricing in a threat to Fed independence. But investors interested in this auction should watch real yield trends through the week.

Definition: The “real yield to maturity” of a TIPS is its yield above official future U.S. inflation, over the term of the TIPS. So a real yield of 1.91% means an investment in this TIPS would provide a return that exceeds U.S. inflation by 1.91% for 10 years.

Is an above-inflation yield around 1.90% attractive? Yes, historically. Of course, we can’t predict where real yields will be heading into the future. They could be much higher if U.S. deficits continue to soar and the world loses trust in the U.S. dollar. Here is the trend in the 10-year real yield over the last 16 years:

Click on image for larger version.

Update: In the wake of turmoil over Greenland and the threat of additional tariffs on European trading partners, the Treasury’s estimate of the 10-year real yield surged to 1.97% at Tuesday’s close. See this.

Update No. 2: After the U.S. reached a potential deal over Greenland late Wednesday, real yields fell sharply. The Treasury is showing 1.92% as the prediction, but the secondary market closed at 1.86%. Just another “normal” day.

Pricing

Since this is a new TIPS, its coupon rate will be set to the one-eighths mark below the auctioned real yield. (For example, a real yield of 1.90% would result in a coupon rate of 1.875%.)

For that reason, the unadjusted auction price will be slightly below par value and investors will get the TIPS at a discount. Plus, this TIPS will carry an inflation index of 0.99779 on the settlement date of January 30. That guarantees the investor will get a discounted price, but also get less than par value of principal as of January 30.

For example, a $10,000 par value investment will be priced slightly below $10,000, but the investor will be getting only $9,977.90 of principal on the settlement date. My reaction: No big deal, but no one should be surprised.

If you find all this confusing, read this: Q&A on TIPS

Inflation breakeven rate

As I noted above, the Treasury’s estimate of the nominal yield of a 10-year Treasury note closed Friday at 4.24%. If you assume this new TIPS will get a real yield of 1.91%, its inflation-breakeven rate would be 2.33%, as things stand today. That is more or less in line with recent auctions.

Historically, an inflation-breakeven rate of 2.33% is high, and it indicates that the nominal Treasury at 4.24% may also be a fair investment. I favor the TIPS because it provides protection against future unexpected inflation. Also, consider that inflation over the last 10 years has averaged 3.2%, through December 2025.

Here is the trend in the 10-year inflation-breakeven rate over the last 16 years, showing remarkable stability since late 2021 in the 2.2% to 2.4% range:

Click on image for larger version.

Auction thoughts

It’s impossible to predict demand for inflation-protected investments at a time when inflation reporting is being questioned and the independence of the Federal Reserve may be at risk. My view is that TIPS should get a bit of a “risk premium,” meaning slightly higher real yields. So far, that’s not happening.

I will be investing in this new TIPS unless real yields fall off in the next week. I could purchase CUSIP 91282CPU9 later in the year, easily, and possibly get a better yield at some point. Again, no big deal for my overall investment strategy. A real yield of around 1.90%, or even a little less, will be fine.

If you want to track this potential investment, you can use the Treasury’s Yield Curve estimates, which are posted at the market close each day. This is an estimate of the yield of a full-term TIPS at par value. The estimate will be close, but not perfect, and things can change on the day of the auction.

You can also monitor Bloomberg’s Treasury Yields page to see real-time updates of secondary market trading in the most recent 10-year TIPS. Consider this a rough guide; the auction result often varies.

This TIPS auction closes Thursday at 1 p.m. EST. Non-competitive bids at TreasuryDirect must be placed by noon Thursday. If you are putting an order in through a brokerage, make sure to place your order Wednesday or very early Thursday, because brokers cut off auction orders before the noon deadline.

I will be posting the auction results soon after the close on Thursday. Here is a history of auction results for this term over the last 5 years:

Confused by TIPS? Read my Q&A on TIPS

TIPS in depth: Understand the language

TIPS on the secondary market: Things to consider

TIPS investor: Don’t over-think the threat of deflation

Upcoming schedule of TIPS auctions

—————————

Donate? This site is free and I plan to keep it that way. Some readers have suggested having a way to contribute. I would welcome donations. Any amount, or skip it, your choice. This is completely optional.

PayPal link / Venmo link

—————————

Follow Tipswatch on X for updates on daily Treasury auctions and real yield trends (when I am not traveling).

David Enna is a financial journalist, not a financial adviser. He is not selling or profiting from any investment discussed. I Bonds and TIPS are not “get rich” investments; they are best used for capital preservation and inflation protection. They can be purchased through the Treasury or other providers without fees, commissions or carrying charges. Please do your own research before investing.

Note: Comments on this article have been turned off because the direction has turned entirely political.

Posted in Federal Reserve, Inflation, Investing in TIPS, TreasuryDirect | Tagged , , | 36 Comments

U.S. inflation held steady in December; annual rate closes at 2.7%

Core inflation held at 2.6%, a 5-year low for a completed year.

By David Enna, Tipswatch.com

FYI, comments have now been closed on this article. Discussion was going strictly political.

U.S. inflation rose 0.3% on a seasonally adjusted basis in December, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, with annual inflation holding steady at 2.7%, same as reported for November.

The annual rate ended up higher than expectations, but that was balanced off by a lower-than-expectations increase for core inflation, which removes food and energy. Core inflation increased 0.2% for the month and held steady at 2.6% for the year. So this looks like a fairly mild inflation report.

The December report closes the books on 2025 with an annual rate of 2.7%, down from 2.9% in 2024. That’s progress, but overall inflation remains too high.

The BLS noted that shelter costs increased 0.4% for the month and are up 3.2% for the year. Shelter costs will continue to be an “iffy” indicator because the BLS collected no survey data in October, which may slightly suppress inflation numbers for several months. Also in the report:

  • Food at home prices rose an alarming 0.7% in December and are now up 2.4% for the year. The December number reverses a several-month trend of mild food-price increases.
  • Five of the six major grocery store food group indexes increased in December. Costs of fruits and vegetables rose 0.5%; bakery products, 0.6%; dairy products, 0.9%. However, prices for meat, poultry and fish declined 0.2% in December and egg prices fell 8.2%.
  • Gasoline prices, which fell 0.5% in December, helped lower all-items inflation. Gas prices fell 3.4% over the year.
  • Electricity prices also fell 0.1%, but are up 6.7% for the year.
  • Piped gas service prices rose 4.4% for the month are are now up 10.8% for the year.
  • Costs of new vehicles were flat for the month and up only 0.3% for the year.
  • Costs of used cars and trucks fell 1.1% for the month and are up 1.6% for the year.

Here is the trend for all-items and core inflation throughout 2025, a wild ride that includes a gap for missing data in October and let’s say “questionable” data for November. The December data offer a tiny bit of clarity:

What this means for TIPS and I Bonds

Investors in Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities and Series I Savings Bonds are also interested in non-seasonally adjusted inflation, which is used to adjust principal balances on TIPS and set future interest rates for I Bonds. For December, the BLS set the inflation index at 324.054, down 0.02% from the November number.

For TIPS. The December inflation index means that principal balances for all TIPS will decline 0.02% in February, after falling 0.46% in January. However, for the year ending in February, TIPS balances will have increased 2.68.%. Here are the new February Inflation Indexes for all TIPS.

For I Bonds. The December report is the third of a six-month string that will determine the I Bond’s new variable rate, to be reset May 1. Inflation in the months of October to December has declined 0.23%, which at this point would result in a variable rate of -0.46%. However, this trend will likely reverse (possibly strongly) in January to March. So it’s too early to focus on the likely variable rate.

View historical information on my Inflation and I Bonds page

Non-seasonally adjusted deflation is common in the months of November and December, when holiday discounting kicks in. That is why the CPI is seasonally adjusted. Over the year, these variances balance out.

Click on image for larger version.

What this means for future interest rates

Beyond any other “brewing crisis” factors, I’d say this report does not support a cut in interest rates by the Federal Reserve in January. Inflation retreated slightly in 2025 but remains well above the Fed’s goals. Add to that threats of criminal indictments and Jerome Powell’s strong response, and you get some sort of gridlock. The current Fed is not going to bend to pressure.

The positive from the report is that core inflation came in slightly below expectations, and the annual rate of 2.6% marked a 5-year low for a completed year. But questions about shelter data remain, so the Fed may put off further cuts. Here is the reaction of Jeff Schulze, head of economic and market strategy at ClearBridge Investments, reported by Bloomberg:

“While investors will cheer this release as further evidence of disinflationary progress, the Fed will remain in ‘wait and see’ mode given the uncertainty until more distance came be put between the data and the shutdown. This release is positive for risk assets and increases the odds that the Fed will provide additional monetary policy support in 2026.”

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Donate? This site is free and I plan to keep it that way. Some readers have suggested having a way to contribute. I would welcome donations. Any amount, or skip it, your choice. This is completely optional.

PayPal link / Venmo link

—————————

Follow Tipswatch on X for updates on daily Treasury auctions and real yield trends (when I am not traveling).

Feel free to post comments or questions below. If it is your first-ever comment, it will have to wait for moderation. After that, your comments will automatically appear. Please stay on topic and avoid political tirades. NOTE: Comment threads can only be three responses deep. If you see that you cannot respond, create a new comment and reference the topic.

David Enna is a financial journalist, not a financial adviser. He is not selling or profiting from any investment discussed. I Bonds and TIPS are not “get rich” investments; they are best used for capital preservation and inflation protection. They can be purchased through the Treasury or other providers without fees, commissions or carrying charges. Please do your own research before investing.

Posted in Federal Reserve, I Bond, Inflation, Investing in TIPS | Tagged , , | 48 Comments

The Savings Bond Calculator has a problem

Here is a guide to a workaround.

By David Enna, Tipswatch.com

It’s a new year and I am sure a lot of investors in Series I and EE Savings Bonds are using TreasuryDirect’s Savings Bond Calculator to determine year-end values for their investments. This year, though, there is a problem.

Using the calculator involves clicking on an .html file stored on your computer, which opens a summary of your investment values. To update those values, the user clicks on the “Return to Savings Bond Calculator” link to export the values into the calculator. No login to TreasuryDirect is necessary.

Here is what the link looks like in the Firefox browser.

Once you enter the calculator, you can update the values, edit the list if necessary, and re-save the file as an .html document to your computer. Success! If you have done this before you know how it works. If not, read my step-by-step guide on using the calculator.

The problem

Since sometime in late 2025, the .html file you save back to your computer can no longer link back to the Savings Bond Calculator. When you click on “Return to Savings Bond Calculator,” nothing happens. (For this reason, I recommend always using an updated file name when you re-save the file. For example, use the current month in the new filename. Your older file will still connect, since it is not broken.)

I have tested the broken link issue in Firefox, Chrome, and Edge browsers and the newly saved file fails in all three.

Obviously, something has broken in the .html file created by the calculator. A reader altered me to this issue last week and noted, “I called TD and talked to them and they say that they are aware of the problem and are working on it. They had no estimate as to the timeline.”

This is especially frustrating at a time when investors want to create year-end updates of their holdings. However … remember that any older .html file you have saved will still connect and can be updated. The problem is that when you re-save that file, it will no longer reconnect.

I have to wonder: “Is this a staffing-shortage problem?” Or “Is there a security issue with the current link that needs to be fixed?” We don’t know and TreasuryDirect has no warning on the calculator indicating there is a problem.

The workaround

I searched around for a solution and on Bogleheads (of course) I found a workable but clumsy way to fix the broken .html file.

I tested this process and it does work. The problem for a lot of people, though, will be figuring out how to open the .html file in a text editor and then alter it. Apparently, this issue is baffling for TreasuryDirect because it hasn’t fixed the problem.

Step by step

I used the calculator to create a fake I Bond portfolio to test the process. Here is what it looks like:

Then, I right-clicked on that page and saved the list as an .html file to my computer. (It’s important to remember where you put the file and what you called it. Use a unique name for every update.)

When I click on the resulting .html file on my computer, I get this:

At this point, the “Return to Savings Bond Calculator” link will not work because this is a new, broken .html file. So I have to open it in Notepad (or any text editor) to alter it. The next step is to right click on the file name and have it open in Notepad:

Here is what you are looking for in the broken file:

And here is how it needs to be altered:

You don’t need to type all that out, just copy and paste this:

<form method="post" action="https://www.treasurydirect.gov/BC/SBCPrice">

Important. Once the editing is complete, re-save the file as an .html document. That means you should simply “SAVE” it. Do not use “SAVE AS” because Notepad will then save it as a .txt document and not .html. It’s fine to overwrite the broken version. The newly edited file should now work. Click on it and here is the result from my example.

When you click on “Return to Savings Bond Calculator” you successfully return to the calculator where you can update your holdings and add or remove savings bonds from your portfolio:

Until TreasuryDirect fixes this issue, you will need to use this workaround every time you save a newly updated .html file.

Thoughts

The Savings Bond Calculator is a valuable tool for I Bond investors. It gives accurate results in a simple, editable format. TreasuryDirect warns that is should only be used for paper I Bonds, but it works fine for electronic versions.

Why not just log into TreasuryDirect to view your holdings? In TreasuryDirect, you can see the total value of the holdings, but for each I Bond you can see only the current composite rate, not the fixed rate. That can get confusing since composite rates change at different months through the year, depending on the month of the original purchase.

With the Savings Bond Calculator, you can combine a listing of two accounts (spouses, for example) and make notations on the account holder and the fixed rate for each I Bond. (I use the serial # field to do this. For example: Husband 0.2% or Wife 0.5%). So you get a complete picture of your combined holdings, and it is very easy to locate the lowest-fixed-rate I Bonds if you want to redeem those. Plus, you can also add in any converted I Bonds, which I have also done. And it is an absolute necessity for people still holding paper I Bonds.

Because the Treasury has stopped issuing paper savings bonds of any form, I have worried that it will discontinue use of the Savings Bond Calculator. That would be a disappointing and frustrating decision.

Fixing this problem appears to be quite simple, just altering one line of code. But we have no timeline from TreasuryDirect for a fix, or if there was a rationale for breaking it.

Does the Savings Bond Calculator create security issues for the user? I doubt it. Remember that the calculator file is stored on your own computer, contains no personal or account information, and interacts with TreasuryDirect without any login information. I was able to use a fake investment file to test the system because it runs outside the TreasuryDirect login.

Confused by I Bonds? Read my Q&A on I Bonds

Let’s ‘try’ to clarify how an I Bond’s interest is calculated

Inflation and I Bonds: Track the variable rate changes

I Bonds: Here’s a simple way to track current value

I Bond Manifesto: How this investment can work as an emergency fund

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Donate? This site is free and I plan to keep it that way. Some readers have suggested having a way to contribute. I would welcome donations. Any amount, or skip it, your choice. This is completely optional.

PayPal link / Venmo link

—————————

Follow Tipswatch on X for updates on daily Treasury auctions and real yield trends (when I am not traveling).

Feel free to post comments or questions below. If it is your first-ever comment, it will have to wait for moderation. After that, your comments will automatically appear. Please stay on topic and avoid political tirades. NOTE: Comment threads can only be three responses deep. If you see that you cannot respond, create a new comment and reference the topic.

David Enna is a financial journalist, not a financial adviser. He is not selling or profiting from any investment discussed. I Bonds and TIPS are not “get rich” investments; they are best used for capital preservation and inflation protection. They can be purchased through the Treasury or other providers without fees, commissions or carrying charges. Please do your own research before investing.

Posted in Cash alternatives, I Bond, Savings Bond, TreasuryDirect | Tagged , , | 36 Comments

A 10-year TIPS is maturing Jan. 15. How did it do as an investment?

CUSIP 912828N71 continued the trend of strong performance.

By David Enna, Tipswatch.com

Back on Jan. 21, 2016, we had a “sort-of” exciting moment in the market for Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities. The Treasury auctioned a new 10-year TIPS — CUSIP 912828N71 — which generated a real yield to maturity of 0.725%, the highest yield for any 9- to 10-year TIPS auction for nearly five years.

That real yield seems mundane today, but it was a big improvement over a stretch of very low and often negative real yields dating back to September 2011.

Inflation breakeven rate. Another interesting aspect of this TIPS is that on the auction date the 10-year nominal Treasury note was yielding just 2.03%, creating an ultra-low inflation breakeven rate of 1.30%.

Let me ask: Do you think inflation averaged more than 1.3% over the last 10 years? The answer, of course, is yes. Inflation averaged 3.2% over the next 10 years, making this TIPS an outstanding investment versus the 10-year nominal bond of the time.

The final investment results for this TIPS were set by the “iffy” November inflation report released Dec. 18, which may have slightly under-reported true inflation because of problems with government data collection. We will never know for sure. Here is how CUSIP 912828N71 performed at the end:

Data from Eyebonds.info show this TIPS generated a 10-year nominal annual return of 3.902%, easily exceeding the comparable nominal Treasury at 2.03%. For its time, CUSIP 912828N71 was a very good investment.

TIPS versus an I Bond

An I Bond issued in January 2016 had a fixed rate of 0.10%, well below the real yield of this TIPS at 0.725%. According to Eyebonds.info, from January 2016 to the end of June 2026, the I Bond will have generated a nominal return of 3.16%. That is better than the Treasury note at 2.03%, but lags the return of the TIPS at 3.902%.

TIPS versus other alternatives

The total bond market, defined by Vanguard’s Total Bond ETF (BND), has had an average total annual return of 1.94% over the last 10 years, trailing both the January 2016 I Bond and CUSIP 912828N71.

The TIP ETF, which holds all maturities of TIPS, has had an average total return of 2.86% over the 10 years. VTIP, the short-term TIPS ETF, had an average return of 3.15%.

So, when compared to safe alternative investments, CUSIP 912828N71 had the best performance.

One more thing: CUSIP 912810FS2

Another TIPS is maturing Jan. 15: CUSIP 912810FS2, a 20-year TIPS that was originally auctioned on Jan 24, 2006. I don’t track the old 20-year maturities because the Treasury stopped issuing them in November 2009. This TIPS was attractive, with a real yield to maturity of 2.039% at the originating auction.

At the time, a 20-year Treasury bond was yielding 4.63%, giving this TIPS an inflation breakeven rate of 2.59%. Over the last 20 years, annual inflation has averaged 2.51%, and this TIPS will end up providing a nominal return of 4.512%, slightly below the nominal Treasury.

Verdict: CUSIP 912810FS2 was a slight loser versus the nominal Treasury. This happened because inflation ran at lower-than-predicted levels much of the time through 2020.

Thoughts

There is an obvious lesson here: TIPS do well when inflation is higher than expected, and that is exactly why we invest in TIPS — to protect against that possibility. When compared to similar investments, buying this 10-year TIPS in January 2016 and holding to maturity was a sound move.

I purchased this TIPS in a taxable account at TreasuryDirect with a small investment at the January 2016 auction. I get my payday on January 15.

TIPS have been on a winning streak for several years, caused by the surge to 40-year high inflation that peaked in June 2022 at 9.1%. Even today, annual inflation (2.7%) is running higher than the auctioned breakeven rate of January 2016. And so TIPS have been the winners versus nominal Treasurys in recent years.

See historical data on my TIPS vs. Nominals page.

Notes and qualifications

My chart is an estimate of performance comparing inflation breakeven rates versus actual inflation.

Keep in mind that interest on a nominal Treasury and the TIPS coupon rate is paid out as current-year income and not reinvested. So in the case of a nominal Treasury, the interest earned could be reinvested elsewhere, which would potentially boost the gain. For certain, we don’t know what the investor could have earned precisely on an investment after re-investments.

In the case of a TIPS, the inflation adjustment compounds over time, and that will give TIPS a slight boost in return that isn’t reflected in the “average inflation” numbers presented in the chart.

Confused by TIPS? Read my Q&A on TIPS

TIPS in depth: Understand the language

TIPS on the secondary market: Things to consider

TIPS investor: Don’t over-think the threat of deflation

Upcoming schedule of TIPS auctions

—————————

Donate? This site is free and I plan to keep it that way. Some readers have suggested having a way to contribute. I would welcome donations. Any amount, or skip it, your choice. This is completely optional.

PayPal link / Venmo link

—————————

Follow Tipswatch on X for updates on daily Treasury auctions and real yield trends (when I am not traveling).

Feel free to post comments or questions below. If it is your first-ever comment, it will have to wait for moderation. After that, your comments will automatically appear. Please stay on topic and avoid political tirades. NOTE: Comment threads can only be three responses deep. If you see that you cannot respond, create a new comment and reference the topic.

David Enna is a financial journalist, not a financial adviser. He is not selling or profiting from any investment discussed. I Bonds and TIPS are not “get rich” investments; they are best used for capital preservation and inflation protection. They can be purchased through the Treasury or other providers without fees, commissions or carrying charges. Please do your own research before investing.

Posted in I Bond, Inflation, Investing in TIPS, Savings Bond, TreasuryDirect | Tagged , , , , , | 27 Comments