By David Enna, Tipswatch.com
In the messiest inflation report in history, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said today that seasonally-adjusted consumer prices rose just 0.2% over a two-month period (October and November), resulting in an annual rate of 2.7%
This is a two-month report because the BLS didn’t collect inflation data for October during the 43-day government shutdown. Plus, the November report was delayed by eight days. So we have been flying blind since the September report (also delayed) was issued on Oct. 24.
For what it is worth, this is a very encouraging inflation report, with both all-items and core inflation coming in well below expectations. The all-items annual rate fell from 3.0% to 2.7% and core inflation fell from 3.0% to 2.6%. This indicates a strong disinflationary trend. But the BLS did note:
BLS did not collect survey data for October 2025 due to a lapse in appropriations. BLS was unable to retroactively collect these data. For a few indexes, BLS uses nonsurvey data sources instead of survey data to make the index calculations. BLS was able to retroactively acquire most of the nonsurvey data for October. CPI data collection resumed on November 14, 2025.
This November report from the BLS was massively slimmed down and in most cases the bureau did not report month-over-month price changes because it had no data for October. This is surreal. For example, here is the very strange chart of annual CPI rates over the last year:

And here is the BLS’s slimmed-down list of month-over-month changes by category. There has never been an inflation report like this:

Honestly, I have nothing to say except: Let’s wait for December data, to be released on Jan. 13, hopefully on time.
What this means for TIPS and I Bonds
Investors in Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities and Series I Savings Bonds are also interested in non-seasonally adjusted inflation, which is used to adjust principal balances on TIPS and set future interest rates for I Bonds. Normally, this is a routine calculation, but not today.
The Treasury was required by federal regulations to create a non-seasonally adjusted CPI index for October, which was used to set inflation accruals for TIPS in December. That October number — resulting from a synthetic calculation averaging inflation over the previous 12 months — was 325.604, which I had suspected was too high.
For November, the BLS set the inflation index at 324.122, a whopping 0.46% less than the October number. So yes, the October number was artificial, and artificially too high.
For TIPS. This November inflation report means that principal balances for all TIPS will fall 0.46% in January, after rising 0.25% in December, which was artificially too high. Here are the new January Inflation Indexes for all TIPS.
For I Bonds. The November report is the second of a six-month string that will set the I Bond’s new variable rate, to be reset on May 1, 2026. So far, two months in, inflation has declined 0.21%.

It is very common for non-seasonally adjusted CPI to dip into deflation in the last three months of the year, especially in November and December. This trend will turn around in the January to March inflation periods.
What this means for future interest rates
Because this inflation report was so convoluted, it is suspect. I do trust the BLS, but it has been working in a very difficult situation over recent months. The November data could open the way for future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, but as Bloomberg noted in this morning’s report:
Given the data distortions, investors shouldn’t read too much into this one data print. …
It’s possible that this does reflect a genuine drop off in inflationary pressures, but such a sudden stop, particularly in the more-persistent services components like rent of shelter is very unusual, at least outside of a recession. The upshot is that is looks like we all have to wait until the December data is published next month to verify whether this is a statistical blip or a genuine disinflation.
Inflation analyst Michael Ashton posted a blistering critique of this inflation report this morning. Listen to it here:
Normally, we could look at month-to-month data on food prices, medical care services, apparel, electricity, etc., but all of that is missing in this pared-down November inflation report. My conclusion is that our confusion is justified.
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Thanks David for the heads up on this. I also got a e-mail from TD about it being available. Mine…