Podcast: ‘Inflation Guy’ questions the Fed’s resolve to fight soaring prices

Posted on May 5, 2022 by Tipswatch

“The recession isn’t going to happen tomorrow, but it will happen next year.”

Tipswatch.com

As we all expected, the Federal Reserve raised its key short-term interest rate by 50 basis points on Wednesday, while also announcing plans to begin paring back its balance sheet in June. And then .. the stock market roared about 3% higher on the news. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell triggered the surge with these words at his afternoon press conference:

So a 75-basis-point increase is not something the committee is actively considering. … there’s a broad sense on the committee that additional 50-basis increases should be on—50-basis-point increases should be on the table for the next couple of meetings.

It was a brilliant move by the Fed, in my opinion. Brilliant in the sense of setting up expectations in recent weeks — a 75 basis point increases was “possible” — and then knocking down that idea, making multiple increases of 50 basis points seem appealing. The stock market, which has been slumping for weeks, celebrated with a one-day party.

That’s how I saw it. Now let’s hear from Michael Ashton, an inflation guru who explains his thoughts just about weekly in his “Cents and Sensibility” podcast. In this episode, titled “Reflections on this Century’s First 50bp Rate Hike,” Ashton points out that the Fed did what was expected, and there is no danger in doing what is expected.

But he also warns about complacency on the U.S. economy, which could be heading toward a difficult stretch, even with inflation continuing in a 4% to 5% range next year:

I can’t think of any examples in history where you had a large increase in energy prices, not to mention food prices, and large increases in interest rates … and didn’t have a recession. That would be very odd. … The recession isn’t going to happen tomorrow, but it will happen next year.

And this forecast raises the “big” question: Will the Fed have the nerve to continue fighting inflation even when stocks fall into a bear market and the economy is suffering? Ashton contends that the “Fed put” — its resolve to protect the stock market — remains alive, even it it is in hiding.

Here is his podcast intro:

Today the Federal Reserve raised the overnight Fed Funds rate 50bps – the largest such increase since May 2000 (and the Inflation Guy is sticking by the title of this episode since technically the 20th century didn’t end until 12/31/2000!), and Chairman Powell strode confidently to the microphone in the post-meeting presser. How does this action, and what Powell said, impact the inflation outlook and why did the markets behave the way they did? (The answers are: not much, and for unhealthy reasons, but listen to the podcast anyway.)

Who is Michael Ashton?

His audiences know him as the “Inflation Guy.” He is a pioneer in the U.S. inflation derivatives market. Before founding his company, Enduring Investments, Ashton worked in research, sales and trading for several large investment banks including Bankers Trust, Barclays Capital, and J.P. Morgan.

Since 2003, when he traded the first interbank U.S. CPI swaps, and 2004 when he was the lead market maker for the CME’s CPI Futures contract, he has played an integral role in developing new instruments and methods for accessing and hedging various inflation exposures. In 2016, Mr. Ashton published What’s Wrong With Money? The Biggest Bubble of All. He is a graduate of Trinity University and lives in Morristown, New Jersey.

Have a question? Get the Inflation Guy app in the Apple App Store or Google Play, or email InflationGuy@enduringinvestments.com.

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Feel free to post comments or questions below. If it is your first-ever comment, it will have to wait for moderation. After that, your comments will automatically appear.

David Enna is a financial journalist, not a financial adviser. He is not selling or profiting from any investment discussed. The investments he discusses can purchased through the Treasury or other providers without fees, commissions or carrying charges. Please do your own research before investing.

Posted in Inflation | 13 Comments

Treasury holds I Bond’s fixed rate at 0.0%; composite rate rises to 9.62% for six months

Posted on May 2, 2022 by Tipswatch

By David Enna, Tipswatch.com

EE Bonds will have a fixed rate of 0.1%, but continue doubling in value after 20 years, creating an effective interest rate of 3.5%

The U.S. Treasury just announced the May to October 2022 terms for U.S. Series I Savings Bonds and EE Bonds, and there were no surprises. I Bonds remain exceptionally attractive; they will pay an annualized composite rate of at least 9.62% for six months, for all I Bonds, no matter when they were issued.

I Bonds

Here are details from the Treasury’s announcement:

The composite rate for Series I Savings Bonds is a combination of a fixed rate, which applies for the 30-year life of the bond, and the semiannual inflation rate. The 9.62% composite rate for I bonds bought from May 2022 through October 2022 applies for the first six months after the issue date. The composite rate combines a 0.00% fixed rate of return with the 9.62% annualized rate of inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index for all Urban Consumers (CPI-U). The CPI-U increased from 274.310 in September 2021 to 287.504 in March 2022, a six-month change of 4.81%.

And here is my translation:

  • An I Bond earns interest based on combining a fixed rate and a semi-annual inflation rate. The fixed rate – which will continue at 0.0% – will never change. So I Bonds purchased from May 2, 2022, to October 31, 2022, will carry a fixed rate of 0.0% through the 30-year potential life of the bond.
  • The inflation-adjusted rate (also called the variable rate) changes every six months to reflect the running rate of non-seasonally adjusted inflation. That rate is now set at 9.62% annualized. It will update again on November 1, 2022, based on U.S. inflation from March to September 2022.
  • The combination of the fixed rate and inflation-adjusted rate creates the I Bonds’ composite interest rate, which was 7.12% but now rises to 9.62%, the highest in history for I Bonds. An I Bond bought today will earn 9.62% (annualized) for six months and then get a new composite rate every six months for its 30-year term.

It’s important to note, however, that all I Bonds — no matter when they were issued — will get that 9.62% inflation-adjusted rate for six months, on top of any existing fixed rate. So an I Bond purchased in April will receive 7.12% for six months, and then 9.62% for six months. I Bonds purchased back in September 1998 (with a fixed rate of 3.4%), will receive a composite rate of 13.18% for six months.

Here is the formula the Treasury used to determine the I Bond’s new composite rate:

The composite rate for I bonds issued from May 2022 through October 2022 is 9.62%
Here’s how the Treasury set that composite rate:
Fixed rate0.00%
Semiannual inflation rate4.81%
Composite rate = [fixed rate + (2 x semiannual inflation rate) + (fixed rate x semiannual inflation rate)][0.0000 + (2 x 0.0481) + (0.0000 x 0.0481)]
Composite rate  [0.0000 + 0.0962 + 0.0000000]
Composite rate0.0962000
Composite rate0.09620
Composite rate  9.62%
Source: TreasuryDirect.com

Obviously, I Bonds remain a very attractive investment. I had been urging investors to buy in April to catch that 7.12% rate for six months, and then the 9.62% rate for six months. But if you missed that deadline — and I’ve heard from many of you that this happened — don’t worry. Just purchase I Bonds in May and get that 9.62% rate for six months, followed by another variable rate (probably fairly high) in six months.

An I Bond has to be held one year before it can be redeemed, but an investor can purchase the I Bond near the end of a month and get full credit for the month. That means an I Bond can be, effectively, an 11-month investment. I Bonds redeemed from 1 to 5 years face a penalty of three months interest; after 5 years there is no penalty.

If you are looking at an I Bond as a short-term investment, buying late in May 2022 and redeeming in early May 2023 guarantees you a return of 4.81%, even after the three-month interest penalty, which will be applied to the next variable rate. Your return will probably be much higher.

However, I advise using I Bonds as a long-term investment, building up a large store of inflation-protected cash. I’d absolutely advise against selling any I Bonds until the 9.62% rate is complete. The month that it triggers depends on the month that you originally bought the I Bond.

Issue month of your bondNew rates take effect
JanuaryJanuary 1 and July 1
FebruaryFebruary 1 and August 1
MarchMarch 1 and September 1
AprilApril 1 and October 1
MayMay 1 and November 1
JuneJune 1 and December 1
JulyJuly 1 and January 1
AugustAugust 1 and February 1
SeptemberSeptember 1 and March 1
OctoberOctober 1 and April 1
NovemberNovember 1 and May 1
DecemberDecember 1 and June 1

The fixed rate of an I Bond is equivalent to the “real yield” of a Treasury Inflation-Protected Security. It tells you how much the I Bond will yield above the official U.S. inflation rate. Right now, an I Bond will exactly match U.S. inflation. Because the Treasury held the I Bond’s fixed rate at 0.0%, it will track official U.S. inflation, but not exceed it, except after a period of extended deflation.

I Bonds carry a purchase limit of $10,000 per person per year, and must be purchased electronically at TreasuryDirect. Investors also have the option of receiving up to $5,000 in paper I Bonds in lieu of a federal tax refund. Learn more about I Bonds in the I Bonds Manifesto and in my Q&A on I Bonds.

EE Bonds

Here are the Treasury’s terms announced Monday:

Series EE bonds issued from May 2022 through October 2022 earn today’s announced rate of 0.10%. All Series EE bonds issued since May 2005 earn a fixed rate in the first 20 years after issue. At 20 years, the bonds will be worth at least two times their purchase price. The bonds will continue to earn interest at their original fixed rate for an additional 10 years unless new terms and conditions are announced before the final 10-year period begins.

And here is my translation:

  • The EE Bonds’ fixed rate remains at 0.1%, where it has been since November 2015. Awful, right? (Check out your current money market savings rate, somewhere around 0.05%, or less.) But the EE Bonds’ fixed rate is irrelevant because…
  • An EE Bond held for 20 years immediately doubles in value, creating an investment with a compounded return of 3.5%, tax-deferred. So, if you invest $10,000 at age 40, you can collect $20,000 at age 60, with $10,000 of that total becoming taxable.
  • After the doubling in value at 20 years, the EE Bond reverts to earning 0.1% for another 10 years.

Retaining this 20-year doubling is a big deal. The Treasury has changed this holding period several times in the past, so there was a possibility the terms could change in 2022, with the 20-year nominal Treasury currently yielding 3.14%, still below the EE Bond’s potential of 3.5%.

But as interest rates have climbed this year, the appeal of EE Bonds is lessening. It’s possible you will be able to get 3.5% in 5-year CDs in the future. The 5-year nominal Treasury is yielding 2.92%.

You should only invest in EE Bonds if you are absolutely certain you can hold them for 20 years. (And after 20 years they should be immediately redeemed.) They are a possible “bridge” investment for someone around age 40, who can build an annual stream of income starting at age 60, potentially delaying Social Security benefits until age 70.

The EE Bond will also outperform an I Bond if inflation averages less than 3.5% a year over the next 20 years. I think that is a reasonable possibility (but who knows, given current inflation trends). For anyone with a secure 20-year timeline for investment, an EE Bond remains somewhat attractive because of the tax-deferred interest and potential to use gains tax-free for educational purposes.

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Feel free to post comments or questions below. If it is your first-ever comment, it will have to wait for moderation. After that, your comments will automatically appear.

David Enna is a financial journalist, not a financial adviser. He is not selling or profiting from any investment discussed. The investments he discusses can purchased through the Treasury or other providers without fees, commissions or carrying charges. Please do your own research before investing.

Posted in I Bond, Inflation, Savings Bond | 19 Comments

Video: A financial adviser/tax specialist explains I Bonds

Posted on April 28, 2022 by Tipswatch

Your financial adviser should know about I Bonds and be willing to explain their obvious benefits and potential pitfalls.

Tipswatch.com

I consider U.S. Series I Savings Bonds to be among the simplest of all investments. They are savings bonds, after all, issued by the U.S. Treasury and can be purchased in amounts as small as $25. They earn tax-deferred interest and can be held for one year up to 30 years. They can never go down in value.

What could be simpler? Well …

In reality, I Bonds can have some complexities and finding answers to esoteric questions can be difficult. As I Bonds became an investing rage this year, I found myself Googling for answers to questions I had never heard before, and I’ve been writing about I Bonds for 11 years.

Here is a video from Andy Panko, founder of Tenon Financial based in Metuchen, N.J. He is a Certified Financial Planner and an enrolled IRS agent with a specialty in tax advice. Here is how he describes his financial services, for which he charges a flat annual fee ($9,600 for a couple, $8.400 for an individual):

We focus on helping you make the most of your retirement resources in a tax-efficient way. Our specialty is retirement income planning, aka decumulation planning…how to best live off your nest egg and other sources of retirement income. …

Unlike many advisors, our ongoing fee is not tied solely to the amount of your investable assets. The size of your investment accounts is generally a poor gauge of the complexity of your financial life and therefore a poor gauge of the amount of time and resources necessary to provide you proper planning and advice.

I discovered Andy when I came across his Facebook site, Taxes in Retirement, in its early days. The site now has 28,000 members — really active members, and Andy frequently jumps in to answer questions. He also posts frequent YouTube videos on financial topics and has a podcast, Retirement Planning Education.

I like that Andy tells you what he knows, and what he doesn’t know. Here is his discussion on I Bonds:

This video is actually a condensed version of Andy’s podcast, a 30-minute discussion on I Bonds. Here is a direct link to that more detailed version.

By the way, I have no connection to Andy Panko or Tenon Financial and I am sharing this simply because it demonstrates that a financial planner/tax adviser can — and should — understand I Bonds. I appreciate that Andy has taken the time to learn about I Bonds and talk about them with his clients, and with the rest of the world on Facebook, YouTube and podcast services.

Professor Zvi Bodie, who began promoting the I Bond Manifesto last year, came up with an “I-Bond Test of Trustworthiness” this month, wonderful in its simplicity:

Who can you trust for good financial advice and competent management of your personal wealth? Many of us rely on lawyers, accountants, wealth managers, and financial planners. There are two qualities that we ought to look for in any of these financial professionals: integrity and knowledge. Alone, neither of these is sufficient to justify our trust. Asking a simple question provides a quick test of both components of trustworthiness:

What do you think about I Bonds?

If the answer is “What are I Bonds?” then the professional has failed the knowledge part of the test. I Bonds have been in existence since 1998, and at times have clearly dominated all other personal investment opportunities for both the short run and the long run.

The correct answer is “You ought to buy I Bonds up to the legal limit because they are a safe, tax-advantaged liquid asset.”

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Feel free to post comments or questions below. If it is your first-ever comment, it will have to wait for moderation. After that, your comments will automatically appear.

David Enna is a financial journalist, not a financial adviser. He is not selling or profiting from any investment discussed. The investments he discusses can purchased through the Treasury or other providers without fees, commissions or carrying charges. Please do your own research before investing.

Posted in Investing in TIPS | 6 Comments

Let’s handicap the I Bond’s fixed-rate equation

Posted on April 24, 2022 by Tipswatch

May 2, 2022 update: Treasury holds I Bond’s fixed rate at 0.0%; composite rate soars to 9.62%.

By David Enna, Tipswatch.com

Back in December 2021, I wrote an article contending there was a “slim chance” that the fixed rate for the U.S. Series I Bond could rise at the Treasury’s next reset on May 1, 2022. The point of that article was to demonstrate that even if the fixed rate did rise, an investment before May 1 would make more financial sense than one after May 1.

Pre-publication, I ran that article idea by a few inflation-watching experts and got responses like you see on Twitter with the meme of the laughing woman spitting out water. Basically: “Are you crazy? There is no way the Treasury is going to raise the I Bond’s fixed rate in May. Not going to happen!”

At the time, understand, the Federal Reserve was only hinting it might begin raising interest rates in 2022. And the 10-year TIPS had a real yield of -1.08%, giving the I Bond a huge 108-basis-point advantage.

But things have changed, as I speculated could happen in that December article:

Eventually, both real and nominal interest rates should begin rising, ending nearly two years of absurdly low rates, at a time when inflation has surged to a 30-year high. Finally, will investors see a reasonable return on safe investments? That’s my hope.

As of Friday’s market close, the real yield of a 10-year TIPS had increased to -0.08%, jumping 100 basis points higher in just five months. The I Bond now has only an 8-basis-point advantage over a 10-year TIPS. Yet, I’d say the possibility of a higher fixed rate remains very slim — for the May reset. In November, much more likely.

How is the fixed rate set?

The Treasury has no announced formula for setting the I Bond’s fixed rate, and everything you read here is informed speculation. The Treasury sometimes does weird things. I’ve been handicapping the fixed-rate adjustments for 11 years, and my best speculation is that the yield of a 10-year TIPS needs to be above zero for the Treasury to even consider raising the fixed rate. Once the 10-year TIPS real yield rises to about 0.50%, a fixed rate above zero becomes likely. We are still a bit away from that.

I don’t think the fixed rate is going to rise at the May 1 reset. (The announcement will come at 10 a.m. EDT on May 2, because May 1 falls on a Sunday.)

Here is a chart showing every instance where the I Bond’s fixed rate was set higher than zero, going back to 2008, and comparing that fixed rate with the then-current real yields of 5- and 10-year TIPS:

Notice that over the last 13 years, there is no case when the I Bond’s fixed rate was above zero and the 10-year TIPS yield was negative to inflation. The closest was the May 2016 reset, when the 10-year TIPS was yielding only 0.12%. At that time, annual inflation was running at only 1.1%, so the Treasury may have been using the 0.1% fixed rate to spur interest in I Bonds.

Today, U.S. inflation is running at 8.5% and investors are flooding into I Bonds. Over the past six months, nearly $11 billion in I Bonds have been issued, compared with around $1.2 billion during the same period in 2020 and 2021, the Wall Street Journal reported last week.

The I Bond’s next composite rate is going to be 9.62%, even with the fixed rate at 0.0%. The Treasury doesn’t need to spur sales. By all logic, it will be holding the I Bond’s fixed rate at 0.0%. Am I totally certain of that? Nope, more like 98.5% certain. The Treasury sometimes does weird things.

Why buying before May 1 makes the most sense

Let’s say the Treasury surprises us and raises the fixed rate to 0.2% for May to October purchases of I Bonds. That would be a shocker! (It won’t happen, but let’s pretend … ) On a $10,000 investment, that 0.2% bonus is worth $20 in the first year, and will compound slightly higher in future years.

If you invest before May 1, you lock in earnings of $356 in the first six months, and then you will earn $498 in the second six months, for a total of $854 in the first 12 months. If you buy after May 1 and get a fixed rate of 0.2%, you will earn $491 in the first six months and then an unknown amount in the second six months.

If you buy after May 1, you miss out on the initial boost of $356, which is equal to about 13 years of the 0.2% fixed-rate bonus, even if you calculate in compounding. So if you buy in May and luck out with a higher fixed rate, it will still take you 13 years to catch up with the person who bought in April.

Here are the numbers, based on my projection of a gradually declining inflation rate over the next 15 years:

Inflation assumptions in this chart, after Year 1, are just for illustration and are not predictions.

And if the fixed rate doesn’t rise?

A lot of readers have been asking me why it doesn’t make more sense to wait until May and jump directly into the 9.62% rate instead of the current rate of 7.12%. The rationale for buying in April is simple: You get a full six months of 7.12% (annualized) and then a full six months of 9.62% (annualized). With compounding that works out to an annual return of 8.54%.

If you buy after May 1, you get 9.62% annualized for the first six months and then an unknown rate for the next six months. When the variable rate resets in November people who bought in April and those who bought in May will get that new rate for six months. There is no advantage to buying in May, for people who intend to buy I Bonds for the mid- to long-term.

The one exception is for an investor who wants to hold the I Bond exactly 12 months and then redeem it. For that person, buying in May does make some sense because it puts the 9.62% return in the first six months. If the I Bond is redeemed after 12 months, the three-month interest penalty will be applied to the next variable rate, which will probably be lower.

People who buy in April should hold the I Bond for 15 months before redeeming, to make sure the three-month penalty is not applied to the 9.62% rate.

Our fixed rate future

There is no way to predict if the Federal Reserve will have the courage to continue its very aggressive course of planned rate increases and balance-sheet reductions. If it follows through, interest rates should rise across the board. In the last tightening cycle beginning in 2015, the 10-year TIPS real yield rose as high as 1.17% in November 2018. In response, the Treasury set a fixed rate of 0.5% for the I Bond at both the May and November 2018 resets.

The first tick higher in the last tightening cycle came in November 2015, when the I Bond’s fixed rate increased to 0.1%. At that time the 10-year TIPS was yielding 0.63%.

We’ve got a ways to go, but if 10-year real yields rise anywhere close to 0.50% later this year, a higher fixed rate will be possible at the November 2022 reset. This would be positive for I Bond investors, because that fixed rate will continue into January 2023, when the purchase-limit clock resets.

But one more thing to consider: If you see 5- and 10-year TIPS real yields rise well above zero, you need to start considering TIPS as an investment. They will likely have a yield advantage over I Bonds for the first time in nearly three years.

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Feel free to post comments or questions below. If it is your first-ever comment, it will have to wait for moderation. After that, your comments will automatically appear.

David Enna is a financial journalist, not a financial adviser. He is not selling or profiting from any investment discussed. The investments he discusses can purchased through the Treasury or other providers without fees, commissions or carrying charges. Please do your own research before investing.

Posted in I Bond, Investing in TIPS, Savings Bond | 11 Comments

New 5-year TIPS auctions with real yield of -0.340%, highest in two years

Posted on April 21, 2022 by Tipswatch

Inflation breakeven rate soars to 3.34%, probably an all-time high for any TIPS of any term.

By David Enna, Tipswatch.com

The Treasury’s offering today of $20 billion in a new 5-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Security generated a real yield to maturity of -0.340%, the highest for this term at auction in two years and a remarkable 117 basis points higher than a similar auction just four months ago.

This is CUSIP 91282CEJ6, and the Treasury set its coupon rate at 0.125%, the lowest it will go for a TIPS. Investors paid an adjusted price of about $102.76 for about $100.42 of principal, after accrued inflation is added in. This TIPS will have an inflation index of 1.00424 on the settlement date of April 29.

It’s hard — for me at least — to predict real yields of new TIPS at auction, but this result seemed surprisingly high. At yesterday’s market close, the Treasury estimated the real yield of a 5-year TIPS at -0.49%, and a similar TIPS was trading on the secondary market with a real yield of -0.54%. Big-money TIPS investors could be waiting on the sidelines, anticipating higher yields in coming months. But the bid-to-cover ratio for this auction was a decent 2.73, indicating reasonably strong demand.

Today’s auction result continued a several-months trend of new and reopened TIPS getting higher-than-expected yields at auction. For investors, this is a welcome trend.

Definition: The “real yield” of a TIPS is its yield above or below official U.S. inflation, over the term of the TIPS. So a real yield of -0.340% means this TIPS will trail U.S. inflation by 0.34% for 5 years. A negative real yield isn’t necessarily a bad investment; the quality of the investment will depend on whether inflation rises above expectations in future years.

Here is how the 5-year real yield has trended over the last 12 months, based on Treasury estimates:

Inflation breakeven rate

With a 5-year nominal Treasury currently trading with a yield of 3.0%, this TIPS gets an inflation breakeven rate of 3.34%, which I believe is the highest breakeven ever recorded at auction for any TIPS of any term. (I can track data back to 2003.) It shows how much inflation expectations have soared over the last four months. In a December reopening auction of a 5-year TIPS, the inflation breakeven rate was 2.73%, 61 basis points lower.

What does this mean? If inflation averages more than 3.34% over the next 5 years, this TIPS will outperform a nominal Treasury. U.S. inflation is currently running at 8.5% and is likely to remain at least in the 4% to 5% range well into 2023. (Still, I have to admit that a 5-year nominal Treasury paying 3% is starting to get interesting. Might need to mix and match.)

Here is the trend in the 5-year inflation breakeven rate over the last 12 months:

Reaction to the auction

I was a buyer of a nibble-sized investment in this TIPS. While watching yields this morning, I fully expected the yield to come in at -0.50%, 16 or 17 basis points lower. So, nice surprise. In addition, this TIPS (along with all other TIPS) will get an inflation accrual of about 1.3% in May, based on non-seasonally adjusted inflation in March.

After the auction’s close, I noticed news reports that Fed Chairman Jay Powell had signaled in Europe that the Fed is highly likely to raise short-term interest rates by 50 basis points in May. “It is appropriate,” he said, “to be moving more quickly. … I would say 50 basis points will be on the table for the May meeting.” This comment certainly had an effect on Thursday’s auction. The 5-year TIPS is the maturity most sensitive to increases in short-term nominal rates.

The TIP ETF — which holds the full range of maturities — had been trading slightly lower all morning, indicating higher yields, and then popped a bit higher after the auction close. This indicates the market saw the auction as acceptable.

We are entering a new phase in Treasury issues, with the Federal Reserve no longer buying TIPS on the open market as part of quantitative easing, and also preparing to slim its balance sheet in upcoming months. Higher yields should be coming. But the market is already pricing in the Fed’s future actions.

I am speculating that big-money investors — pensions, hedge funds, foreign central banks — won’t be bidding TIPS yields lower until we see the rate-rising-trend stabilize. I believe we will see the 5-year real yield climb above zero later this year.

CUSIP 91282CEJ6 will get a reopening auction in June and then the Treasury will auction another new 5-year TIPS in October and reopen that one in December. Here is the history of recent TIPS auctions of this term, showing how 5-year real yields climbed substantially higher during the Fed’s last tightening cycle in 2017 to 2018:

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Feel free to post comments or questions below. If it is your first-ever comment, it will have to wait for moderation. After that, your comments will automatically appear.

David Enna is a financial journalist, not a financial adviser. He is not selling or profiting from any investment discussed. The investments he discusses can purchased through the Treasury or other providers without fees, commissions or carrying charges. Please do your own research before investing.

Posted in Investing in TIPS | 6 Comments