I Bond Investors: Here’s Your Buying Guide For 2018

Summary

  • Wait at least until the March inflation number is announced on April 11.
  • You then enter a three-week ‘limbo period’ when you can decide to buy before or after the May 1 rate reset.
  • Don’t bother buying I Bonds as a short-term investment. You can do better with one-year, best-in-nation bank CDs.

Read my full analysis on SeekingAlpha.com 

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Posted in Investing in TIPS | 1 Comment

Recapping 2017: The Year In Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities

Summary

  • The year was marked by rising short-term real yields, as longer-term yields held stable or declined.
  • If economic growth continues, longer-term real yields should begin rising. Watch for the 10-year real yield to climb toward 1.0%.
  • The year’s TIPS auctions offered a couple of buying opportunities. Not spectacular, but solid, safe investments.

Read my full analysis on SeekingAlpha.com

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5-Year TIPS Reopening Auctions With A Real Yield Of 0.370%

Summary

  • The after-inflation yield of 0.370% was the highest in two years for any 4- to 5-year TIPS auction.
  • Reaction to the auction looks positive, with the TIP ETF rising minutes after the close, indicating higher demand.
  • The inflation breakeven rate came in at 1.87%, a bit higher than recent trends. This is another indication of good demand for this issue.

Read my full analysis on SeekingAlpha.com

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The Year’s Most Attractive TIPS Auction Could Be Coming Dec. 21

Summary

  • Short-term TIPS have attractive real yields, at least compared with longer maturities.
  • Watch out for volatility in the Treasury market next week in the days leading up to the auction.
  • The current inflation breakeven rate is about 1.81%, not cheap. This TIPS is fairly priced versus a nominal Treasury.

Read my full analysis on SeekingAlpha.com

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Higher Gas Prices Drive U.S. Inflation Up 0.4% In November

Summary

  • The sharp increase matched the consensus estimate, so it wasn’t a surprise for the markets.
  • Core inflation remains muted, increasing just 0.1% for the month and 1.7% over the last 12 months.
  • Today’s data won’t alter the Federal Reserve’s course toward higher short-term interest rates. This month’s reopening of a 5-year TIPS is looking attractive.

Read my full analysis on SeekingAlpha.com

Also, I have updated my Tracking Inflation and I Bonds page with the new numbers.

And here are the new January inflation indexes for all TIPS.

 

Posted in Investing in TIPS | 1 Comment

10-Year TIPS Reopening Auctions With A Real Yield Of 0.512%

Summary

  • The after-inflation yield was the highest at auction for this term since January 2016, breaking a string of 10 auctions under 0.50%.
  • The inflation breakeven rate came in at 1.84%, a reasonable number but well off the lows of early summer.
  • Market reaction to the auction has been muted, with the TIP ETF barely budging after the 1 p.m. auction close.

Read my full analysis on SeekingAlpha.com.

Posted in Investing in TIPS | 2 Comments

U.S. Inflation Rose 0.1% In October, Hitting Expected Number

Summary

  • Both the headline and core inflation numbers matched the consensus estimates, so no surprises in today’s numbers.
  • Non-seasonally adjusted inflation declined slightly in October, which will cause a slight drop in TIPS principal balances in December.
  • A December rate increase still looks likely from the Federal Reserve.

Read my full analysis on SeekingAlpha.com

Also, I have updated my Inflation and I Bonds page with these new numbers.

And here are the new December inflation indexes for all TIPS.

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