10-year TIPS reissue auctions with a yield of -0.225%

The Treasury just announced that today’s auction of a 9-year, 8-month Treasury Inflation-Protected Security resulted in a yield of -0.225%, the highest yield on a 10-year TIPS in more than a year. This was a bit better than the -0.244% experts were predicting just before the auction.

Here is the Treasury announcement.

CUSIP 912828UH1, with a coupon yield of 0.125%, was first auctioned in January with a yield to maturity of -0.630% and then reissued in March with a yield of -0.602%.

The rise in yield means that buyers at today’s auction will be paying a much lower price for that 0.125% coupon, about $104.27 per $100 of value. That is down from $107.50 from the January auction.

The principal balance of TIPS is adjusted to reflect inflation, so a buyer at today’s auction is accepting a return of 0.225% less than inflation each year over 10 years.

TIPS yields, which have been as low as -0.750% for a 10-year issue, have been rising in the last month because of a trend of weakening inflation, plus a fear among investors that the Federal Reserve soon could halt or slow its bond-buying stimulus.

10-year breakeven rate

At midday today the 10-year Treasury was trading with a yield of 2.03%, making the 10-year inflation breakeven rate 2.255%. This is substantially lower than the lofty 2.54% resulting from the March reissue of this same TIPS. That means TIPS have become cheaper relative to traditional Treasuries.

Analysis of the auction

Carolyn Cui of the Wall Street Journal writes:

With real yield rising to the highest in more than a year, the inflation-adjusted Treasurys attracted decent demand from investment funds and foreign investors. …

One negative reflection of the auction, however, was that it had a light ratio of bidders to the amount of debt sold, at 2.52 times compared with the average of 2.66 times for 10-year TIPS during the past six auctions. As a result, the auction stopped at -0.225%, higher than the -0.246% for similar notes already in circulation before the auction.

Daniel Kruger of Bloomberg writes:

“Investors felt like this was meeting their support levels where they felt it was time to jump back in,” said Michael Lorizio, senior trader at Manulife Asset Management in Boston. “Digging deeper into the data really does spell this as a really solid auction.”

 

Advertisements
This entry was posted in Investing in TIPS. Bookmark the permalink.

8 Responses to 10-year TIPS reissue auctions with a yield of -0.225%

  1. Ed says:

    David,
    You wrote
    The principal balance of TIPS is adjusted to reflect inflation, so a buyer at today’s auction is accepting a return of 0.225% less than inflation over 10 years.
    I’m just looking out for rookies: you might want to say 0.225%/year

  2. tipswatch says:

    Ed, yes, people have misunderstood that before. I am clarifying. Thanks for the suggestion.

  3. Ed says:

    Hi Dave, I just saw here
    http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3020-tips.html?mod=topnav_2_3021
    that today’s Feb. 2043 TIPS is +0.89% yield. A while ago you opined a ‘normal times’ yield range, but I could not now find it. Was it maybe 1-2% …?

    • tipswatch says:

      Since the historical long-term real (after-inflation) return on Treasurys is about 2%, I’d say a more normal return on a 30 year TIPS would be 2% and up.

  4. Bill says:

    You mentioned that you have a TIPS that recently matured. It might be an interesting blog topic if you did an analysis of a matured TIPS vs the nominal treasury that was available at the same time. For example, if you had invested equal amounts in a 10-years TIPS and a comparable 10-year nominal, what was the actual total return when both of them matured? How do you walk through that calculation? What was the predicted vs actual BEI? It could be a one-time detailed post, or you could include a quick “monday morning quarterbacking” summary whenever a TIPS matures. That’s just a suggestion – I enjoy your blog and look forward to each new post.

  5. Ed says:

    Bill, Omitted from your Comment is a yield-equivalent of the inflation protection included in owning TIPS. Surely sizable. AND different people likely differ a lot on this number …

  6. Pingback: Monday: More blood in the streets for TIPS | Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities

  7. Pingback: Recapping 2013: The year in TIPS | Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s