I have added a new data page to this site’s top navigation: Tracking Inflation and I Bonds that I will be updating each month when new inflation numbers are released. I have been having a hard time finding this information, so I figured I should compile it myself. Here is the chart that I’ll be updating:
I try not to predict inflation and interest rates., unless I really have to. My strategy is to stick with…
Ed, correct. If you buy in April you will earn a fixed rate of 0.2% plus a variable rate of 1.18% for six months, then 0.2% plus 1.84% for the next six months. If you buy on May 1, you will get a fixed rate of ‘unknown’ plus 1.84% for six months, and then ‘unknown’ plus ‘unknown’ for the next six months.
The following is a summary reminder, hopefully useful to readers, I write from memory. I use the date May 1 — but the same/corresponding thing occurs on November 1.
A new I-bonds fixed rate is declared by the U.S. Treasury — it is what they see fit. It applies to all I-bonds issued in the next six calendar months, May through October. AND it applies to these bonds until maturity or redemption.
The new I-bonds inflation rate is announced — it EQUALS the already known inflation rate for the last September through March. It applies to the first six months of ownership for all I-bonds issued in the next six calendar months, May through October.
SO, an I-bond issued in April will ALWAYS be earning an inflation rate that is six months OLDER than the inflation rate being earned by an I-bond issued in May.
This is great. Thanks!
On a related note, there’s a similar gap with TIPS. It’s difficult to find historical TIPS prices, and even if you have the price you still have to dig around at treasurydirect (or eyebonds.info) to find the index ratio (inflation factor). Seems like somebody somewhere should let me look up a TIPS CUSIP on whatever date in the past, and show me the closing price, the index ratio, and the inflation-adjusted price. Might be a project to consider if you’re looking for new content at tipswatch…