- The real yield looks likely to drop to about -0.65%, the lowest yield for any auction of this term since April 2013.
- The inflation breakeven rate is running at about 0.98%, up from recent lows but still attractive as an alternative to nominal Treasurys.
- Better alternatives? Clearly, the U.S. Series I Savings Bond is superior to a 5-year TIPS. Another choice would be to ride out this deflationary period in a 1-year bank CD.
Just when it seems we really need inflation protection, investments in inflation protection are looking awful. Or, more accurately, just when it seems like we need safe investments, safe investments are looking awful.
Welcome to June 2020 in our virus-stricken United States.
The U.S. Treasury on Thursday will offer $15 billion in a reopening auction of CUSIP 912828ZJ2, creating a 4-year, 10-month Treasury Inflation Protected Security. Depending on how you look at our nation’s near-term future, this offering is either enticing (for solid reasons) or total garbage (also for solid reasons). I’m leaning 75% toward garbage.