U.S. stock and bond markets are ‘resilient,’ but how long can that last?
By David Enna, Tipswatch.com
Feeling a bit of financial panic? Can’t blame you. But let’s take a closer look.
The U.S. stock market had started a slight decline before the U.S. began bombing Iran on February 28. Since then, the Standard & Poors 500 index has suffered four straight weeks of declines, its longest losing streak since 2023, according to Barron’s.
The Nasdaq Composite has fallen in nine of the past 10 weeks, something it hasn’t done since 2022. The U.S. bond market has also been hit, with long-term yields rising to highs for the year on Friday. The 20- and 30-year Treasury bonds could break through the 5% barrier at any time.
With the price of oil topping $100 a barrel — and staying there — gasoline prices in the United States have increased to a national average of $3.94, up 34% in one month. Diesel fuel now retails at $5.25 a gallon, up 41% in one month.
These fuel prices — and the inevitable pass-through costs for delivery services, electricity, home heating, fertilizer, transportation, etc. — are going to boost U.S. inflation, possibly dramatically. If this crisis continues, the situation will be dire for the U.S. economy.
But not yet. The overall U.S. stock market has not entered a bear market (meaning a decline of 20% from the previous high) or even a correction (10% from the high). The S&P 500 is currently 6.2% below its all-time high of 6,932, reached on Dec. 24, 2025.
In this chart, note that the best performer over the last month has been Bitcoin, but ignore that. It was down 16.89% over the last year and is a highly speculative investment. Same for the gold ETF, GLD, the worst performer over the last month but up 47.24% over the last year. I don’t focus on Bitcoin or gold, but I included them here for comparison.
The more mainstream investments — the S&P 500, total stock market, total bond market, Nasdaq QQQ, S&P 500 equal weight — are all down substantially, but not enough to mark a correction, let alone a bear market. However, the total international stock market, represented by VXUS, has now entered correction territory, down 10.4% from its 52-week high.
Those of you old enough to remember a true bear market (not like the 33-day event in 2020) know that eventually fear and panic set in, causing sharp across-the-board selling. The saying goes, “Stairs up, elevator down.” The average bear market lasts 9 to 18 months. We aren’t there yet.
TIPS? Not so bad. Note that Vanguard’s short-term TIPS ETF, VTIP, has been the best performer of the mainstream holdings, eking out a meager total return of 0.36% for the month. The broader-based TIPS ETF, TIP, is down just 0.87% over the month.
If you are holding individual TIPS to maturity, the current market chaos is meaningless as long as you view the value of your holdings as par value x inflation index. As inflation rises, these holdings will increase in value. Plus, rising yields for longer-term TIPS present buying opportunities for investors still building out ladders.
Near future looks dim
There doesn’t seem to be a quick solution to the fighting in Iran, which has been steadily escalating. President Trump was threatening to strike Iran’s power plants and critical infrastructure today unless the Strait of Hormuz was opened. (FYI, I was writing this Sunday afternoon.) Iran responded that it would “completely close” the strait if its infrastructure is attacked. From the New York Times:
Ebrahim Zolfaghari, an Iranian military spokesman, vowed that his country would strike infrastructure used by Israel, the United States and American allies — including desalination plants that are a lifeline for much of the Middle East. …
Israeli officials have told the public to expect a protracted campaign.
Monday morning update
In a Truth Social post, Trump said the United States will postpone further strikes on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for five days following “productive” talks between Washington and Tehran. In reaction, at 7:30 a.m. the S&P 500 futures were up 2.1%. Oil prices immediately dropped by about 13%.
Iran did not immediately comment on Trump’s statement. The original Truth Social post was later pulled down (possibly because it contained a typo in the third word?) Most news organizations continued to report this update. So here we go. A moment of good news, but very confusing news. About 45 minutes later, Trump reposted the message with the typo corrected:
From the New York Times:
President Trump did not elaborate on the details of how Iran and the United States might agree to “a complete and total resolution” of their hostilities. Analysts have said it was difficult to identify a possible offramp for the conflict.
And then, within the hour, Iran news media reported that there were no current talks between the U.S. and Iran. (However, talks may be ongoing with 3rd-party Gulf states). From Bloomberg:
Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency is now also reporting Iran is not in talks, and there have been no talks, with Trump. It cites an unnamed senior security official. Trump’s social media statement is “psychological warfare,” Tasnim says.
A prolonged battle with Iran is going to mean 1) higher oil and gas prices extending well into the future, 2) an extended period of higher inflation in the United States, and 3) a massive increase in U.S. military spending at a time of ultra-high federal deficits. Add to that: 4) a highly unhappy voting populace in the fall mid-term elections.
Under these circumstances, the financial markets would have to abandon resiliency. We definitely could see a bear stock market, falling bond market and a true slowdown in the U.S. economy. Prediction: If we get to a situation this dire, the president will have to accept a cease-fire deal — one that keeps the current Iranian regime in power and retaining some influence over events in the Mideast.
Of course, I am not a geopolitical strategist, and this is just my opinion. I hope I am wrong.
Is there a strategy for investors?
My wife and I have a conservative asset allocation in stocks — 35% — and if we actually entered a bear market, we would probably look to add to stock holdings in funds like VTI and VXUS. But I have to admit feeling uneasy about the safety of all U.S. investments in this unpredictable long-term environment.
Your opinion is as good as mine. What are you thinking and are you making any changes in your investments in reaction?
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Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities 
“Truth is the first casualty of war.” Best to wait for the dust to settle, which may take a long time. The guys running Iran are religious fanatics. Dealing with them will be almost useless.
I am reminded of the Iliad, where west (Greeks) battled east (Trojans in modern day Turkey) around 1200 B.C. Greeks still hate Turks and Turks still hate Greeks today. Then the Battle of Marathon 490 BC (Greeks vs Persians). Then the many attempts from 711 AD to now by Moslems (east) to conquer Europe (west). Then the Crusades (Europe vs Moslems, west vs east), the Iraq war (US vs Moslems), Israel’s many wars with Moslems (a continuation of the Crusades). And now a big one, US vs Persia, and I think back to the Iliad and Marathon, West versus East.
I sit with my I-bonds around 5%, T-bills 3.7%, and 5% CDs and watch the next chapter in this 3,200 year story.
“religious fanatics” we have our share running our country. The same theory no compromise you come to our side. Religion has been behind all wars from the begining of time as noted. Our founding fathers knew that and tried to seperate church and state. Hows that going?
It has been said that all wars are wars of religion. Our country is based on Judeo-Christian principals, along with Roman law. The Romans learned much from the Greeks. We are Western Civilization, traced all the way back to the ancient Greeks. Iran, or Persia, is currently based on Moslem principals from 610 AD. In the Koran, Surah 9:5 says “kill the infidels wherever you find them”. But the east has been fighting the west much longer, at least 3,200 years. We will eventually win the current battle, but the war will not be over.
It is important to realize that when it comes to Iran, doing nothing was equivalent to doing something. Iran already possesses the delivery systems, so once they had enriched enough weapons-grade fissile material they could hold half the world hostage. In game theory Mutual Assured Destruction as an apocalyptic guardrail only works when all parties are rational. If one party is potentially suicidal all bets are off.
We do not, and never will, live in a risk-free world. By the nature of the subject matter I would bet that the vast majority of those reading TipsWatch leans toward being somewhat risk-averse. There are times however when bold action is the best course, and I believe this is one of them. I also believe that the Middle East as a region, and the world as a whole will be a less-risky and generally better place going forward.
If anyone was serious about debt…use to be a metric of a couple of cents tax for each stock share traded would eliminate it in due course
I mostly went all to cash (gold too ) and now seriously trying to figure out why tips are worth the effort compared to just tbills or money market. I tried a few AI analysis, comparing money market to tips. Looks like chance for tips to outperform is in that “real yield” percent only? What am I missing?
Assumptions:
Formulas:
Results (rounded to nearest dollar):
Quick takeaway:
Unless your plan is to hold the TIPS to maturity, one thing you seem to be missing is volatility in the market value of the TIPS.
Wow, that’s a lot of mental gymnastics to compare options assuming various rates of inflation between 0% and 3%… The whole reason i hold (lots of) TIPS has nothing at all to do with the possibility of such low rates of inflation. I hold TIPS to insure against the loss of purchasing power if inflation rates turn out to be higher.
Really? I made money and lost money in investments. Winning is better. I always lost money taking someone else’s advice in hindsight. When I started to understand what I was doing I loss less and made more. I once had $250k carryover losses (when young, almost used up after 10yrs). A financial education is not free. Tips vs Tbills or just a Money Market is the question. For the extra time and trouble, seems like Tips might return a few basis points more under certain circumstances but no a sure thing. They kinda act like a bond with different mechanism but only if you but em at high interest rate time.I got $2 million cash which is chump change for some safe fixed income here. When your retired their is little room for error. I really solved some of the fixed income with a lifetime annuity which pays me annually 10% return on premium, a no brainier. Which I bought a few years ago.
I have seen this current cycle before. Tbills, till interest rates go up, longer term treasures when their yield hits the high short term rates. Ride em down to rates low. Then back into the market. Rinse and repeat. Can Tips replace tbills then longer term treasures? I dont think so if bought today, at least in this plan. All of these are just products to me to plug into a plan.
I am a fan of T-bills and have been rolling them over for many years as a backup cash supply (and letting them mature when needed). Right now T-bills are paying an interest rate higher than official inflation, so they are attractive. Over many years in the past, that wasn’t the case and it could happen again if the Federal Reserve goes into “goose the economy” mode. Back in April 2024 I wrote an article comparing the I Bond’s variable rate (at each reset) with the then-current 4-week T-bill rate, going back to May 2011. https://tipswatch.com/2024/04/21/lets-weigh-in-on-the-i-bonds-vs-t-bills-debate/ Maybe I should do an update? Here is the relevant chart:
I do the same with T-Bills, ensuring I have enough cash when they come due right before I have a property tax payment to make. It’s a nice system and works better than CDs especially in states with an income tax (plus there’s no annoying bank trying to roll you over to the next CD).
Yes, I would enjoy reading an updated T-Bill vs. I Bond analysis, but it would be helpful if it compared the I Bond composite rate to the rate of 26-Week T-Bills (because that’s how long each I Bond rate lasts before it resets).
And if you think it makes sense, I’d really appreciate seeing a comparison of the I Bond rate to the 5-Year T-Note (because that’s when the 3-month I-Bond penalty period lapses). I’ve often wondered about that.
Thanks for all you do.
I also roll T-bills, although when they mature isn’t all that important to me as they are extremely liquid and can sell on the secondary market in a minute. Easy access to cash if needed and a good return for several years now. Plus no state taxes on the interest. Part of my emergency fund.
Iran, a country of 80 million people, larger than the largest state of the US, and a 500 mile coastline where 20% of the world’s petroleum products transits is in conflict with US and its ally Israel.
I don’t understand any of it and “doing nothing” is the best approach in the fog of the excursion!
Check this out, IRAN survived all these years because of natural defenses, geography. Sending ground troops in would be suicide. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RgQdtNj7d7s
That was a very important and informative video — all the way until he editorialized about Israel. That aside, 95% of what he showed and stated should have been required programming for the current administration beforehand.
I would add an investment to your list.
Morningstar Cash – 1 month %0.16, 1 year %2.34
Both returns in the green.
When you can get interest currently above the rate of inflation (as is true today), cash is very attractive. I am a fan.
How do I feel? The author asks. Pretty good. I love the fact that Iran has been rendered military ineffective (for how long is more do to the future will of the West and its new Arab allies when it comes to stamping out the danger). Tens of millions of Iranians will have a shot at more fruitful life. And Israel can breathe easier knowing the various Iranian proxy wars might finally be stamped out of existence. The Arab World has joined the US and Israel and have announced a peace that at least in my lifetime has never existed. An uneasy peace perhaps, as many of them are at the beginning. But the sabre-rattling is much less. Iran, and quite frankly a good part of the Arab world, has the potential for new market opportunities and money will soon flow to suddenly less risky places. It might take time, but hope is certainly a more positive thought than certain demoralizing hatred. If some segment of Americans, and by extension, the various Western democracies, feel uncomfortable about all this I suppose that has more to do with the fact it would the Orange Man to get the credit. Step back for a minute, from your own personal short term financial angst and hatred for the Orange One and take a look around. Relax and wonder and how efficient the US Military has been. After having spent my life in DoD as an Iran analyst, I’m amazed at the speed and accuracy of our movements. The financial retired side of my own personal life now is appreciative of the market dislocation to enter into some positions I had been waiting for a drop. Bought a slug of 20 yr TIPS and 5% 20 Yr Treasuries to add to last yrs angst-ridden purchases.
This is a very optimistic view and I hope you are right.
Great response pig pile.
But you must be new here. I have followed the author for years from seekingalpha to his own blog here. Always great and informative articles. I’ve gained so much insight from his posts on tips and ibonds. Politics were never allowed or got involved before.
Unfortunately, this blog has turned into another political attack against current administration even though the author touts no politics allowed.
No politics allowed unless it’s against the right.
TDS is strong. Very unfortunate.
Read my article. Tell me where I attacked the current administration. Yes, some commenters do make political points, within reason, as you have done here. I am trying to take as neutral a view as possible, amid wildly chaotic situations. Accusing anyone of TDS is lazy criticism. Anyway, Colleen, I hope you keep reading and joining the commentary.
Sorry Collen I don’t agree. David tries hard to keep politics at bay on this website. Sometimes he even shuts down discussions that have become too political. Political harangues in any case are tiresome and unhelpful. It’s difficult however to keep politics entirely out because the president’s actions have whipsawed the markets, from tariffs, to meddling with the Fed’s independence, and now this war which has spiked oil prices. I love the BBB and the nice SALT deduction I got. I love his focus on keeping fentanyl out of the country (my brother was a victim). I don’t love the chaos. And when you’re in retirement or staring it down, trying to manage your life’s savings, it’s not a good feeling.
I see a lot of support for holding cash. I completely understand being of a risk averse nature myself. I have held too much cash for too long in my investing career. The problem is that long term, cash is a loser. I bonds and TIPS at least keep pace with inflation. Perhaps leaning into bonds is a solution. The Vanguard Capital Markets model recently recommended a shift toward bonds, i.e., rather than 60/40 stocks/ bonds do 60/40 bonds/ stocks. Diversify across assets of course. And perhaps keep duration on the shorter side if you’re in or near retirement (although yields on the long end of the curve are very enticing).
A successful economic model includes all significant variables, including political ones. It is foolish to leave politics out of the equation, because many political decisions impact the economy. Just as it is foolish to over-emphasize politics and ignore other variables. For example, I-bonds (and all their bizarre rules), Social Security, Medicare, and IRMAA are products of Congressional legislation. It doesn’t get more political than that. I believe David is trying to limit hysterical political rhetoric, which is a lot like a shouting match and is not interesting.
Optimistic view, as noted by @tipswatch.
Disheartening that any criticism of the any administrations results in the accusations flying around, more so than in the past.
My non-DOD non-middle east expert thoughts:
The strait being closed for months will be economically catastrophic.
pig pile,
I’m surprised at your assessment. I lived in Iran for two years. The Iranians are far more like us than the “new Arab allies.” They’re certainly making trouble in the Mideast, where our presence makes us collateral damage, but they’ve not attacked us directly. I don’t even see how they’ve attacked our interests, unless one considers Israeli security to be in our interest – and I don’t. Take another look at the nationalities of the 9/11 hijackers. Any Iranians in that group?
Your note is almost two weeks old. How has the war measured up to your expectations?
As the professional military predicted, Iran closed the Strait and the price of oil is climbing. That’s putting the world economy at risk and there’s certainly going to be inflationary pressure. To cope with that, we’ve lifted sanctions on Russian oil. The Russians reward us by feeding information to Iran. We have even lifted sanctions on Iranian oil and they now exploit their strategic position by charging a toll at the Strait for hard currency.
Trump claimed we destroyed their nuclear stockpile over the Summer and it seems we can’t be sure what the status of it is today.
Regime change? Well, Khamemi IS dead but his hard-line son takes his office… hard to see that as much of a change. Certainly, we’ve not managed to coax or coerce a friendly regime into power.
Trump asked for a cease fire and the Iranians said, “no.”
We have been assured by The White House that Iranian air defenses have been obliterated but we’ve lost two planes. How is that?
The DOD – excuse me – The DOW is in chaos. We’ve got a Fox News commentator with no real experience running a military sacking people left and right to get a more loyal core – loyal to him, that is. He’ll need them; if he can’t get some subordinates to fall on their swords, the Firer-in-Chief will run him through.
Our allies are, to put it mildly, annoyed. I think we’re going to see China gain influence in the region.
How much more of this winning can we take?
Obama was on the right track; deals, inspections and eventual engagement. Once upon a time, Iran was full of people who loved us. Some still do Obama’s plan would have coaxed them back into the open. Trump has eliminated that possibility.
We have 95%+ in Savings, T-Bills, I-Bonds, and TIPS. I put the rest into equity funds, primarily high-dividend international, just so I could have something to watch go up and down.
The plan is succeeding marvelously!
What symbols high dividend international? The highest I saw was 3%.
“As of late March 2026, the Vanguard International High Dividend Yield ETF (VYMI) offers a dividend yield of approximately 3.72% to 4.17%.”
Mumble mumble, past performance, future results…
Honestly, the situation is so chaotic, the region is so destabilized, the justifications are so murky, the explanations are so misleading, and the market reaction is so volatile that it counterbalances the positive outcomes by our extraordinary military and makes it impossible to make any predictions or draw any conclusions about where we go from here.
What I do know is that inflation, which is about to jump again, would be tamed by now if not for ridiculous extreme illegal tariffs and war policy choices, employment is teetering, many of our allies want nothing to do with us after the way they’ve been treated, and our national debt, already a huge red flag, is exploding before our eyes to the tune of $1 billion per day!!! because of actions, and inaction. And the insanity and desperation is so acute that we have now chosen to allow Russia and Iran!!! to sell their oil which they will use to fund their aggression even as we fight against them totaling $14 billion in revenue to Iran! Hope, and funding our own enemies, are not winning strategies.
It’s almost like we need George Costanza to do the exact opposite of everything being done to improve our circumstances.
What am I doing? I’m holding on for dear life that cooler heads and rational behavior will prevail over ego, incompetence, and faux machismo. Declare victory. It’s TACO time.
Nicely stated. Inflation in the US is going to spike and likely stay high for the next 5+ years. Just in time for the next admin to be blamed for high prices. The upside down world being sold to us on a daily basis by this current admin, where we are routinely asked to not believe what our eyes are seeing, is both enervating and exhausting.
The actual checks I write dont lie.
Picking up some of the longer dated TIP bonds for others at these higher real rates. Wow, the rates have changed a lot from just a few short years ago.
“Wow, the rates have changed a lot from just a few short years ago” . Seems like the consensus is rates will be higher coming up. Why wouldn’t I just take the money market rates for at least 3 more yrs and get a better deal?
I suppose someone can wait 3 more years to buy TIPs, but I plan to just keep on buying TIP bonds all along every year and also right now at these discounted bond prices with high premium rates of interest on top of any forward inflation.
Apparently, I’m not privy to the quorum group that determines the consensus you refer to.
The statement in quotes is from the author of this article and reopened auctions took higher rates to sell. But its all educated guess in the future markets. I have been trying to figure out if adding more complexity for such a low return is worth the effort? Highest rates in a while, is not the same as a high rate of return.
To me, all US dollar gains above inflation are always good. TIP bonds are certainly not the highest rate of return over time historically, but there is the risk factor on my hard-earned capital.
At least the US government has the collateral of many millions of acres of government owned land if they were to default. I’ll take land in lieu of money.
Talking about BUYING in bear market territory is easy. Executing is another story. Emotions, including those unconscious, take over at the time of fear and panic. Even though I am experienced (old) and should know better it would *still* happen to me.
So, I have *ALREADY* entered two GTC limit orders to BUY when price drop reaches 20% from the most recent high.
If VXF, today $206, declines to $175 (52-week high $222 x ~80%) then the BUY order will execute.
If VTI, today $325, declines to $275 (52-week high $343 x 80%) then the BUY order is excecuted.
I just couldn’t resist the moves on 30Y TIPS that I bought them on Friday and locked in a real rate of 2.73%. I was hoping that it will slide further today and see 2.8% but I think I am being too greedy there 🙂
David,
I don’t who to believe. Trump is a certified BS artist, which means he doesn’t even know when he’s lying. My adage is this: watch what he does, not what he says.I’ve had about 1/3 of money in CDs and money markets for a while. While my stocks had appreciated quite a bit, I took some money off the table earlier this year, but I’m down about 5% in my equity holdings in the last few weeks.Our country is headed for a financial crisis in the next year or two. Taxes on highest earners have been cut so much the amount of tax revenue will not be able to keep up with debt we’re accumulating.
Trump wants to replace income tax revenue with tariffs, which hits the lowest-income earners the worst. This will slow the economy and if Ai starts replacing workers at a high percentage, then US. tax receipts will not only decline, it will likely put us in a debt spiral.
Both sides of the aisle don’t seem to want to deal with the debt, which could be manageable if we tackled it now. Andrew Yang suggested taxing the “bots,” which makes sense if jobs are replaced with AI. It’s now a good situation for our children and grandchildred.
I don’t [know] who to believe.
Trump: Well, not me, believe me.
Have been 1/3 in cash equivalents for some years (at least enjoying some good money market rates for the last few years. If we descend into a bear market, I will be buying.
Cash is not trash if one is willing to pick up some quick bargains and quick doublers.
I have about a fifth of my money in the TSP. I moved all of that into the G-fund a while back. I had a fair bit in cash in my other investments and have been buying the dips, though maybe I am premature in doing that. I have a high tolerance for investment pain. LOL!
Thanks for your report. Indeed, to avoid uneasiness about the Mideast situation would take iron (or titanium) financial fortitude.
One thing I’ve done to make the best of the lower prices is moved some shares of an international index fund from an IRA (Inot textbook asset location) to my taxable account to satisfy part of the RMD this year. The move of course generates a tax, but that’s true of any RMD (except a QCD). But since the transferred shares will have a lower cost basis than before the war began, I will just hope that eventually the fund will reach and exceed the previous high. I was definitely a little early on that transfer, but it was a modest amount and I still have more of the RMD to satisfy, so I can transfer more if the index falls further.
Good strategy and this seems to make sense for ideal asset allocation. This is my first year for an RMD. I have made a QCD and I am holding off on withdrawing the rest until later in the year. The leftover amount is sitting in cash earning 3.3%, but safe.
Yes, my plans are somewhat similar. So far between a couple of QCDs, the share transfer, and one straight RMD, I still have 80% of my RMD to go. Almost all of that is in CDs at my brokerage purchased at various times in 2025 when interest rates were hovering just above/slightly below 4.0%. That’s a comfort.
Your mention of charitable donations opens up the question of whether TIPS or any fixed income investment belongs in a bequeath. Burton Makiel illuminated that fund managers have the difficult job of preserving the capital in perpetuity, but we individuals only need the funds in our lifetimes. Hence our laddering schemes do work for us as we withdraw annually. We won’t run out of cash flow even if we live to the improbable age of 90..
We retired in a bull market and we have not touched our principal. We are starting our inflation-protected social security pensions soon. We don’t need our portfolio. I don’t have any heirs. I am going to fund a college scholarship. Should I invest like the manager of a university endowment? Should I use dollar-cost-averaging and flip our 40/40/20 portfolio to a 60/40 portfolio?
Again look at SPIA for rmd plus from IRAs…approximately $55k to a charity in one year only with up to 9% distribution taxable as ordinary income
resist the urge to view this as an endless open ended quagmire … identify winners who recalibrate as this unfolds and eventually resolves – because it will be resolved: zero chance the world just sits and watches the straits of hormuz drag the entire planet’s economic systems down and into the dumpster – it gets resolved but who might wins irrespective of how this is accomplished? Western Canadian Petroleum and Western Canadian Infrastructure would be one imo – identify secure jurisdiction energy producers along with their support structures and land packages.
The unpredictability of the world is one reason I have been buying TIPS right along with you over these years – they do help cradle my addled brain, along with a soft pillow, for a good nights sleep.
resist the urge to view this as an endless open ended quagmire … identify winners who recalibrate as this unfolds and eventually resolves – because it will be resolved: zero chance the world just sits and watches the straits of hormuz drag the entire planet’s economic systems down and into the dumpster – it gets resolved but who might wins irrespective of how this is accomplished? Western Canadian Petroleum and Western Canadian Infrastructure would be one imo – identify secure jurisdiction energy producers along with their support structures and land packages.
The unpredictability of the world is one reason I have been buying TIPS right along with you over these years – they do help cradle my addled brain, along with a soft pillow, for a good nights sleep.
I’m not selling or buying. I am doing Roth conversions on the dips.
That’s the silver lining, for sure.