Author Archives: Tipswatch

Summary The headline miss probably isn’t significant, but core inflation rose 0.3%, above the consensus estimate of 0.2%. Non-seasonally adjusted inflation dipped 0.06% in December and I Bond investors may be facing a weak variable rate reset on May 1. … Continue reading →

Summary Wait at least until the March inflation number is announced on April 11. You then enter a three-week ‘limbo period’ when you can decide to buy before or after the May 1 rate reset. Don’t bother buying I Bonds … Continue reading →

Summary The year was marked by rising short-term real yields, as longer-term yields held stable or declined. If economic growth continues, longer-term real yields should begin rising. Watch for the 10-year real yield to climb toward 1.0%. The year’s TIPS … Continue reading →

Summary The after-inflation yield of 0.370% was the highest in two years for any 4- to 5-year TIPS auction. Reaction to the auction looks positive, with the TIP ETF rising minutes after the close, indicating higher demand. The inflation breakeven … Continue reading →

Summary Short-term TIPS have attractive real yields, at least compared with longer maturities. Watch out for volatility in the Treasury market next week in the days leading up to the auction. The current inflation breakeven rate is about 1.81%, not … Continue reading →