Author Archives: Tipswatch

Summary The current real yield estimate of 0.54% would be the highest at auction since January 2016. The inflation breakeven rate has inched up to 2.01%, but that’s still attractive enough versus the nominal Treasury’s yield of 2.55%. Looking ahead: … Continue reading →

Summary The headline miss probably isn’t significant, but core inflation rose 0.3%, above the consensus estimate of 0.2%. Non-seasonally adjusted inflation dipped 0.06% in December and I Bond investors may be facing a weak variable rate reset on May 1. … Continue reading →

Summary Wait at least until the March inflation number is announced on April 11. You then enter a three-week ‘limbo period’ when you can decide to buy before or after the May 1 rate reset. Don’t bother buying I Bonds … Continue reading →

Summary The year was marked by rising short-term real yields, as longer-term yields held stable or declined. If economic growth continues, longer-term real yields should begin rising. Watch for the 10-year real yield to climb toward 1.0%. The year’s TIPS … Continue reading →

Summary The after-inflation yield of 0.370% was the highest in two years for any 4- to 5-year TIPS auction. Reaction to the auction looks positive, with the TIP ETF rising minutes after the close, indicating higher demand. The inflation breakeven … Continue reading →