Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities

Forecast: The next I Bond fixed rate should be 1.20%

Posted on October 7, 2024 by Tipswatch

But there is danger of an ‘outlier’ decision by the Treasury.

By David Enna, Tipswatch.com

It’s already Oct. 7 and we are closing in on Treasury’s November reset of the fixed and variable rates for U.S. Series I Savings Bonds.

The current composite rate is 4.28%, which is calculated by combining a permanent fixed rate of 1.3% with a six-month inflation-adjusted variable rate of 2.96%. Both of those numbers will reset for I Bond purchases beginning November 1.

The variable rate. Thursday at 8:30 am EDT, we will learn the new variable rate, which will be set in stone by the release of the September U.S. inflation report, completing the March to September data used to set the rate.

View historical data on my Inflation and I Bonds page.

For the months of April to August, non-seasonally adjusted inflation has run at 0.79%. It seems likely that September inflation will be around 0.1% (or possibly less) which would give a six-month total of 0.89% and result in I Bond variable rate of 1.78%. That’s a guess. We will know for sure on Thursday.

The key thing is that the six-month variable rate, which eventually rolls out to all I Bonds depending on the month they were purchased, will be significantly lower than current 2.96%.

The fixed rate. The Treasury does not disclose exactly how it determines the I Bond’s fixed rate, which appears to track at a discount to the real yield of a 5-year TIPS. This is the cryptic information it provides:

The Secretary of the Treasury, or the Secretary’s designee, determines the fixed rate. The rate is based on market rates that have been adjusted to account for the value of components unique to savings bonds. These include the early redemption put option, tax deferral feature, deferred purchase feature, and Treasury’s administrative costs.

That statement makes it clear the Treasury examines “market rates,” and adjusts the I Bond’s fixed rate lower to account for the safety, tax-deferral and flexible maturity of I Bonds. I’ve tracked this decision for 13 years, and with the help of some Boglehead geniuses, I’ve settled on this predictive formula:

Take the six-month average of 5-year real yields and apply a ratio of 0.65.

I also look at the 10-year average, just as a back check. In this case, I am using the average of real yields from May 1 to Oct. 4, 2024. After applying the 0.65 ratio, the actual averages, so far, are 1.228619% for the 5-year TIPS and 1.235716% for the 10-year TIPS. The Treasury rounds the I Bond fixed rate to the tenth decimal point, or 1.20% for both these calculations.

You can see from the 5-year side of the chart that the ratio of 0.65 has been quite accurate, even for the November 2019 reset, when it appears the Treasury might have used a higher ratio to set the fixed rate at 0.20%. But it didn’t. The average of 5-year real yields was 0.24%. Apply a ratio of 0.65 and you get 0.156%, which rounds up to 0.20%.

So based on this data, which isn’t likely to change dramatically by the end of October, I’d predict that the I Bond’s new fixed rate will be 1.20%.

The tricky part

There is one thing I don’t know: Does the Treasury try to look forward to predict a trend in real yields? Based on the trend since 2017, when real yields have tended to move higher, it doesn’t look like it does.

October 2024 is an unusual case. The real yield on a 5-year TIPS dipped to as low as 1.41% on September 24. That is just 11 basis points higher than the I Bond’s fixed rate of 1.30%. Since then, however, in the aftermath of Friday’s positive U.S. jobs report, the 5-year real yield surged to close at 1.67%.

I follow real yields almost daily and here’s one thing I do know: You can’t assume to accurately predict the future. It is almost certain that the Federal Reserve will continue a series of short-term rate cuts well into 2025. But that doesn’t necessarily mean longer-term real yields will decline in lockstep.

Example: When the Fed announced a 50-basis-point rate cut on Sept. 18, the 5-year real yield closed at 1.49%. Today it stands at 1.67%.

So, in my opinion, the Treasury should not enter predictive mode and lower the I Bond’s fixed rate to adjust for potential future rate declines. That kind of decision would be an outlier and would be wrong.

I Bond strategy?

A new fixed rate of 1.20% would be a positive thing for I Bond investors, ensuring that this attractive rate would stay in effect for purchases through April 2025. The purchase cap resets on January 1, meaning everyone will have access to the new rate.

We will learn the new variable rate on Thursday, and it is likely to fall to a number around 1.8%, which combined with a fixed rate of 1.2% would translate to a composite rate of around 2.9% to 3.0%. Not exciting, for sure, but the key factor is the permanent fixed rate of 1.20%, which could end being quite attractive in 2025.

On Sept. 25 I posted an article about using the gift-box strategy to add to your I Bond holdings before the end of October. I am using this strategy, which I also used earlier this year, to lock in the 1.30% fixed rate. But it isn’t available to everyone, since it requires a trusted partner.

If the fixed rate remains at 1.20% into 2025, I Bonds will remain attractive as a way to build longer-term, inflation-protected and tax-deferred savings, with total safety.

Let’s hope the Treasury avoids the outlier route and sticks to its predictable formula.

• Considering an I Bond rollover? Do it the right way.

• Confused by I Bonds? Read my Q&A on I Bonds

• Let’s ‘try’ to clarify how an I Bond’s interest is calculated

• Inflation and I Bonds: Track the variable rate changes

• I Bonds: Here’s a simple way to track current value

• I Bond Manifesto: How this investment can work as an emergency fund

* * *

Follow Tipswatch on X (Twitter) for updates on daily Treasury auctions and real yield trends (when I am not traveling).

Feel free to post comments or questions below. If it is your first-ever comment, it will have to wait for moderation. After that, your comments will automatically appear. Please stay on topic and avoid political tirades. NOTE: Comment threads can only be three responses deep. If you see that you cannot respond, create a new comment and reference the topic.

David Enna is a financial journalist, not a financial adviser. He is not selling or profiting from any investment discussed. I Bonds and TIPS are not “get rich” investments; they are best used for capital preservation and inflation protection. They can be purchased through the Treasury or other providers without fees, commissions or carrying charges. Please do your own research before investing.

Posted in Cash alternatives, Federal Reserve, I Bond, Inflation, Investing in TIPS, Savings Bond, TreasuryDirect | Tagged bonds, investing, Treasury investments | 20 Comments

Print journalism: For me, it’s the end to an era

Posted on October 3, 2024 by Tipswatch

Newspaper companies once had a near-monopoly on local advertising. But the best businesses have to keep adapting.

By David Enna, Tipswatch.com

Today, after 38 1/2 continuous years, I let my subscription to the printed Charlotte Observer expire. I hoped to never see this day: My wife loves the printed paper and I worked at the Observer for 34 years. But the printed paper’s death spiral finally pushed me over the edge.

Officially, the Observer says my subscription is “In Grace,” which I think means it is heading to heaven. And probably the Observer will continue delivering it for a week or two to see if I change my mind. I intend to keep my digital subscription.

Keep in mind that The Observer — with a 138-year history — was once a very high-quality newspaper, twice winning the public service Pulitzer and a few others in past decades. At one point, in the early 1990s, the newsroom employed about 225 journalists and had a daily subscription count of about 225,000.

The corporate parent, McClatchy Corp., went bankrupt in 2020 and was acquired by a hedge fund, Chatham Asset Management. Today, the newsroom is down to about 35 journalists, backed up by a corporate team that copy edits a dozen papers each day. The design of the printed papers is done in the Philippines. The print circulation today is probably about 10,000, but McClatchy is pretty secretive on that topic.

When I see my former co-workers around town, I always ask, “Do you still get the printed Observer?” The answer is almost always “no.” I was a holdout because my wife pores over the printed paper and I do the crossword every day (with a pen).

“In an age in which print has become cost-prohibitive and is limited by early deadlines, The Observer must transform its business,” the newspaper’s editor, Rana Cash, wrote in a letter to readers.

I have heard from several friends who called the circulation help desk over the past year to complain about delivery problems. They were encouraged to drop the print subscription and just go digital. In other words: “We know print is doomed.”

Observer journalists still do quality work, when and where they can. And I will continue to read that work online. But my commitment to print died from a thousand pin-pricks:

No more morning delivery. A couple months ago, the Observer announced it was going to reduce its publication schedule from six days a week to three: Sunday, Wednesday and Friday. Plus, instead of having a carrier deliver the paper, it would be sent by U.S. mail.

That change went into effect a week ago, and so far I have received the Friday paper on Monday (our mail arrives after 5 p.m.) and the Sunday paper on Tuesday. Both papers contained content that was up to 4 days old by the time it reached me. The Friday paper that arrived Monday had an article saying Hurricane Helene was approaching the Florida coast. Actually, it hit land on Thursday evening and caused massive damage in the Carolinas on Friday.

Conclusion: The printed Observer can no longer cover breaking news.

No price cut. My latest subscription bill, which I didn’t pay, was for $21.45 for four weeks. As a retired employee, I was still getting a discount, but the price had been rising in recent years. The Observer quotes its “published rate” at $34.99 a week. I hope nobody is actually paying that.

Newspapers across the country often encourage readers (who are mostly elderly, let’s admit it) to sign up for automatic credit card renewals. And then, they just keep raising prices hoping the old folks don’t notice. Don’t sign up for auto-renewal!

No newsroom. I worked on the Observer’s online team in the center of the newsroom for 20 years and then got laid off in 2016. A few years later, when Covid struck, the Observer moved everyone out of offices in an uptown tower, and then eventually closed the newsroom forever.

I can’t imagine working at a newspaper without a newsroom, because interactions between news-gathering reporters feed knowledge and inspiration. You can’t get that on a Zoom call.

No future for local print journalism. I used to describe the Charlotte Observer as a manufacturing company that produced a product each day and delivered it to your home. That meant expenses — beyond the newsroom — for presses, ink, paper, trucks, gasoline, delivery, etc.

Meanwhile, journalism has shifted from print to digital, where distribution costs are near zero for each added subscriber. Readers prefer news that is updated 24 hours a day, and available on phones, tablets and computers. The near-zero cost of adding additional subscribers is why the New York Times and Washington Post allow me to renew my subscriptions for $1 a week, year after year.

(I still get the printed, home-delivered Wall Street Journal, although I stopped paying for it two years ago, while retaining a digital subscription. I guess the Journal wants — or needs — me as a print reader. A weird side note is that the Journal in our area is printed on the Observer presses six days a week.)

The lessons

Sorry for veering off topic today. But the point is, when you are investing in any industry, keep in mind the potential for a series of death-spiral events. Intel Corp., for example, is struggling today because of its emphasis on PC computing. Microsoft though, has expanded its hold on the work place and cloud-computing and is thriving.

Quality journalism is extremely important, especially on the local level. Who will be our watchdogs? Who will shine light on government spending and abuses? I urge you to support quality journalism, both locally and nationally. And that probably means a digital, not print, subscription.

Here are my digital subscriptions, which I will gladly continue as long as prices remain reasonable:

The Charlotte Observer
The Wall Street Journal
Bloomberg
The New York Times
The Washington Post
Barron’s

And FYI, USA Today is currently offering a legit $1 for one year subscription. (Just don’t forget to cancel after the year.)

* * *

Follow Tipswatch on X (Twitter) for updates on daily Treasury auctions and real yield trends (when I am not traveling).

Posted in Inflation, Retirement | Tagged News media, Online subscriptions | 24 Comments

Considering an I Bond rollover? Do it the right way.

Posted on September 25, 2024 by Tipswatch

For some investors, cashing in low-fixed-rate I Bonds makes sense, combined with the gift-box strategy to add to holdings in October.

By David Enna, Tipswatch.com

We are just a month and a few days away from the November 1 rate reset for the U.S. Series I Savings Bond, when both the 1.3% fixed rate and 2.96% variable rate are likely to fall.

Investors purchasing I Bonds in the months of September or October can lock in the 1.3% fixed rate for its potential 30-year term, plus capture a full six months of the 2.96% variable rate (creating a composite rate of 4.28% for six months). The new composite rate as of November will likely be about 3.1%, or less.

So purchasing I Bonds in September or October looks appealing, but the problem for many investors is the purchase cap of $10,000 per person per year. Most people interested in I Bonds have already purchased them to the limit in 2024. However, there are ways to get around the limit — such as adding to holdings through the gift-box strategy, trusts, or business-owner strategies.

In this article I am going to look at using the gift-box strategy, combined with a “rollover” redemption of low-fixed-rate I Bonds to purchase more of the 1.3% fixed rate, the highest for I Bonds since May 2007. This won’t be for everyone, but I get a lot of feedback from readers who are plotting this course.

The rollover strategy

OK, this seems simple: Redeem some or all of your I Bonds with very low fixed rates (0.0% to 0.2%, for example) and then use that money in October to purchase new sets of $10,000, either as your first purchase of the year or using the gift-box strategy. But it is not quite that simple.

Be careful redeeming in TreasuryDirect.

When you go to redeem I Bonds, TreasuryDirect will present a page of all your holdings, showing the current interest rate and current value (minus the 3-month interest penalty, if the I Bond hasn’t been held for 5 years).

TreasuryDirect shows you the current interest rate, but not the fixed rate for each issue. Look at the wide variety of interest rates in my example. Which ones have the lowest fixed rates, making them targets for redemptions?

This isn’t easy. For example, the I Bond issued in January 2013 obviously has a fixed rate of 0.0%, because its interest rate matches the current variable rate of 2.96%.

But what about the I Bond issued in April 2017, with an much better interest rate of 3.94%? It must have a higher fixed rate, right? No. It has a fixed rate of 0.0% but is still paying the previous variable rate of 3.94%, which will transition to 2.96% on October 1. So this I Bond is a potential target for redemption.

In this list, the best targets for redemption are: March 2020, with a fixed rate of 0.20%; April 2017, with a fixed rate of 0.0%, November 2015, with a fixed rate of 0.10%, and January 2013, with a fixed rate of 0.0%.

Also consider federal taxes.

When you redeem an I Bond, you will owe federal income taxes on the interest earned. If an investor purchased $10,000 each of those four I Bonds, here would be the tax consequences of full redemptions on October 1:

March 2020: Proceeds of $12,136 after the 3-month interest penalty. Taxable income of $2,136.
April 2017: Proceeds of $12,932. Taxable income of $2,932.
November 2015: Proceeds of $13,308. Taxable income of $3,308.
January 2013: Proceeds of $13,624. Taxable income of $3,624.

Any of these redemptions would incur potential federal taxes of $450 to $700 or more, depending on your tax bracket. That’s a factor to consider. However, you may have useful ways to use the net cash, which softens the blow.

When to redeem?

With I Bonds, you want to redeem close to the first day of the month, because I Bonds do not earn interest for the month they are sold. So that means if you are planning to use this rollover strategy, you should place your redemption order on Tuesday, Oct. 1.

TreasuryDirect does not allow you to schedule redemptions, so you will need to do this manually. Also, when you get to the final redemption screen, make sure your bank or brokerage is listed as the “payment destination.” Otherwise, your money could be placed in TreasuryDirect’s “zero-percent C of I.” You don’t want that.

When to purchase?

After you redeem, you should see the money deposited into your account in a few days. It’s always worked for me, anyway. Then you can plan your purchase of the 1.3% I Bonds, which you will want to make late in the month of October. Why? Because I Bonds earn interest for an entire month, no matter how late they are purchased in that month.

TreasuryDirect allows you to schedule purchases. I’d suggest setting the purchase date to Friday, Sept. 27 or Tuesday, Oct. 29, to avoid any end-of-month pitfalls. Any order on Oct. 31 will be registered as a November I Bond, with the new lower fixed rate / variable rate combination.

Using the gift-box strategy

This isn’t for everyone, because it requires a trusted partner, such as a spouse or relative. Harry Sit of the TheFinanceBuff.com was the first to write about this strategy in December 2021, in an article titled “Buy I Bonds as a Gift: What Works and What Doesn’t.” When people ask me about the gift box, I point them to this article, which was well researched and thorough. So, go read that article if you don’t know about the strategy.

Some basics of the gift box strategy:

When you place an I Bond into the gift box, it begins earning interest in the month of purchase, just like any other I Bond, and continues earning interest just like any I Bond. However, this money is no longer yours. It belongs to the recipient of the gift.
The purchase does not count against your purchase limit for that year. It will count against the purchase limit for the recipient, in the year it is delivered.
Gift purchases are limited to $10,000 for each gift, but you can make multiple gift purchases of $10,000 for the same person. But the recipient can only receive one $10,000 gift a year, and that gift counts against their purchase limit for that year.
You must provide the recipient’s name and Social Security Number when you buy a gift. The recipient doesn’t need to have a TreasuryDirect account … yet. Only a personal account can buy or receive gifts. A trust or a business can’t buy a gift or receive a gift.
“I Bonds stored in your gift box are in limbo,” Harry Sit notes in his article. “You can’t cash them out because they’re not yours. The recipient can’t cash them out either because the bonds aren’t in their account yet.”
The recipient will need to open a TreasuryDirect account to receive the I Bond. Once it is delivered, the money is the recipient’s, who can then cash out or continue to hold the I Bond.

Here is TreasuryDirect’s video explaining the step-by-step process to complete a gift box purchase:

In his article, Harry Sit also provides a very useful step-by-step guide to completing a gift-box purchase.

The next fixed rate

In recent years I have settled on looking at the six-month average of the 5-year TIPS real yield and then using a ratio of 0.65 to project the I Bond’s next fixed rate. So far, the average real yield from May 1 to Sept. 23, 2024, has been 1.9259%. Apply the 0.65 ratio and you get 1.2518%, which could mean the fixed rate will maintain at 1.3%.

We have one more month of data to add, and I think that calculation is going to slip to something just below 1.25%, meaning a fixed rate of 1.2%, which is still attractive.

However … a huge however … we have never tried to make this projection in a time of sharply declining real yields. As of Monday, the 5-year TIPS real yield was only 17 basis points higher than the I Bond’s 1.3% fixed rate.

So it is entirely possible the Treasury will recognize this reality, consider what’s coming, and settle on a lower fixed rate. But I think the fixed rate will remain 1.0% or higher into next year.

Final thoughts

I wasn’t a fan of the gift-box strategy when it first erupted onto the scene in 2022 to allow investors to purchase large quantities of I Bonds with very high variable rates, but also 0.0% fixed rates. That didn’t make sense because a high fixed rate is the all-important factor. But now the strategy does make sense, because the I Bond’s fixed rate is high.

The rollover strategy is optional. You don’t need to use it if you can easily afford the cash to buy new sets of gift-box I Bonds. A lot of investors are content to hold I Bonds with low fixed rates for use as a longer-term emergency fund. If you are in the accumulation phase, hold them. If not, consider the rollover, pay the taxes and enjoy the extra cash.

I used the gift-box strategy in April 2024 to buy two extra sets of I Bonds with the fixed rate of 1.3%. And I will do it again in September or October for another two sets.

• Confused by I Bonds? Read my Q&A on I Bonds

• Let’s ‘try’ to clarify how an I Bond’s interest is calculated

• Inflation and I Bonds: Track the variable rate changes

• I Bonds: Here’s a simple way to track current value

• I Bond Manifesto: How this investment can work as an emergency fund

* * *

Follow Tipswatch on X (Twitter) for updates on daily Treasury auctions and real yield trends (when I am not traveling).

Posted in Cash alternatives, Inflation, Retirement, Savings Bond, Taxes, TreasuryDirect | Tagged inflation, investing, personal-finance | 41 Comments

Investing for safety: The era of 5% yields is ending

Posted on September 22, 2024 by Tipswatch

By David Enna, Tipswatch.com

We knew this day would come, after enjoying 5% nominal yields on very safe investments for more than a year. But that era ended Wednesday when the Federal Reserve cut its federal funds rate by 50 basis points, to a range of 4.75% to 5.00%.

Today, the effective federal funds rate is 4.8%, and that means almost all safe investments already have or will soon follow the trend below 5%. Look at this chart to see how the 4-week Treasury bill — the base rate for Treasury money market funds and high-yield savings accounts — follows closely with the federal funds rate.

The yield on a 4-week T-bill hit a 2023 high of 6.02% on May 25, 2023, and then a 2024 high of 5.56% on May 24. Thursday, it reached the low for the year, 4.87%. And that yield will continue to decline as the Federal Reserve embarks on a course of rate cuts, probably through much of 2025.

For me, 5% is a magic number. When I was young, my neighborhood Savings and Loan offered a passbook savings account paying a flat 5% and that continued for years. This was the “routine” yield on savings in the 1960s. I remember an episode of the Beverly Hillbillies where banker Mr. Drysdale yelled out, “We’re holding the line on 5% interest!”

I was probably the only kid in America who laughed at that line. More proof I was, and still am, a nerd.

The trend is down

Over the last couple years, I’ve gotten a lot of feedback from readers who were choosing T-bills paying a nominal 5% over TIPS and I Bonds with inflation-protected returns. “Great choice,” I said, if your investment target is short term. But if the goal is longer term, “These rate won’t last forever.”

Here is a look at current yields of safe investment choices, both short- and longer-term. Yields across the board have already dropped below 5% or will soon get there.

A new strategy?

Instead of new strategy, maybe investors need new expectations.

“If you haven’t locked into a 5% yield yet, it’s probably too late for terms over one year,” said Ken Tumin, founder of DepositAccounts.com. “But 4%-plus mid-term and long-term CDs are still available. If interest rates keep falling, these too will soon be gone.”

Tumin advises looking for “add-on” CDs, which allow you to continue depositing money into the existing CD at its current rate.

“In addition to standard CDs at online banks and credit unions, there are a few 4%-plus add-on CDs and no-penalty CDs still available. Moving some cash into these can at least help you maintain 4%-plus yields for a few years into a low-rate cycle.”

2/ The best add-on CDs have these attributes:

1) competitive rate
2) low minimum initial deposit
3) long term (2 to 5 years)
4) unlimited number of add-on deposits
5) no max on total amount of add-on deposits
— Ken Tumin (@KenTumin) August 27, 2024

I have been a strong proponent of investing in T-bills as part of a 2nd-level cash reserve, setting money aside to be used when needed. Back in July 2022 I suggested staggering investments in 13-week and 26-week T-bills, with some maturing every four weeks and then being rolled over. I followed my own advice and was able to ride T-bill rates from about 1.7% in 2022 to 4.87% on a T-bill I reinvested last week.

At this point, I don’t see any need to abandon this strategy. I need this cash reserve for potential spending in retirement, and I don’t want to increase risk in my portfolio. My potential returns will be smaller, but not drastically smaller for the next year, at least.

On the flip side, my core longer-term bond holding — the Vanguard Total Bond Fund ETF (BND) — has recovered nicely since the disastrous performance of 2022, when it was down 13.1%. BND had a total return of 5.66% in 2023 and is up 4.85% so far in 2024. It’s current SEC yield is 4.03%.

While short-term interest rates are almost certain to decline, there’s no certainty about longer-term rates. So there could be future opportunities to extend duration and lock in safe interest rates of nearly 4.0% — either with CDs or Treasury notes. The bond market has to settle down and adapt to the Fed’s actions.

This time around, most probably, short-term interest rates aren’t heading to zero. A more likely “neutral” level will be in the range of 3.00% to 3.50%. Annual U.S. inflation is currently running at 2.5%, and my goal as an investor would be to maintain yields above the rate of inflation. That should be possible over the next year.

Posted in Bank CDs, Cash alternatives, Inflation, Investing in TIPS, Retirement, Treasury Bills, TreasuryDirect | 38 Comments

10-year TIPS reopening auction gets a real yield of 1.592%

Posted on September 19, 2024 by Tipswatch

By David Enna, Tipswatch.com

Too often, the bond market tricks you. It happened again Thursday in the wake of Wednesday’s “sort-of surprise” action by the Federal Reserve to cut short-term interest rates by 50 basis points.

The initial (and expected) reaction after the Fed announcement was that real yields for 5- and 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities dropped by about 5 to 7 basis points. The stock market moved higher. And then … things turned around, with stock prices dipping and Treasury yields rising.

All that led into today’s $17 billion reopening auction of CUSIP 91282CLE9, creating a 9-year, 10-month TIPS. This TIPS trades on the secondary market, and at one point on Wednesday afternoon its real yield dipped to about 1.53%, before rising back to about 1.58% at the market close.

Thursday’s auction, which closed at 1 p.m. EDT, resulted in a real yield to maturity of 1.592%, which should look acceptable to investors. The “when-issued” prediction was 1.59%. The bid-to-cover ratio was a solid 2.44. By any measure, this auction went off without a hitch.

Of course, real yields have declined mightily in 2024 as the Fed began signaling its intention to cut interest rates. As recently as May 23, 2024, a similar 10-year TIPS auction generated a real yield of 2.184%, the highest since 2009. Yields have fallen 59 basis points since then.

Here is the trend in the 10-year real yield since January 2023, with today’s result falling close to the middle of the yield range:

For now, the days of 2.0% real yields are over, even for very long-term TIPS. The 30-year TIPS is trading today at 1.92%.

Pricing

CUSIP 91282CLE9 has a coupon rate of 1.875%, which was set by the originating auction on July 18. Because the auctioned real yield was well below the coupon rate, investors had to pay a premium price for this TIPS. The unadjusted price was 102.554561. In addition, it will carry an inflation index ratio of 1.00237 on the settlement date of September 30:

With that information, we can look at the actual investment cost of a purchase of $10,000 par value at this auction:

Par value: $10,000.
Principal purchased as of Sept. 30: $10,000 x 1.00237 = $10,023.70.
Cost of investment: $10,023.70 x 1.02554561 = $10,279.76.
+ Accrued interest of about $39.33.

In summary, an investor purchasing $10,000 par at this auction paid $10,279.76 for $10,023.70 of principal and will now earn inflation accruals plus an annual coupon of 1.875% on accrued principal.

Inflation breakeven rate

With a 10-year nominal Treasury trading at 3.75% at the auction’s close, this TIPS gets an inflation breakeven rate of 2.16%, well below recent trends. In fact, this is the lowest breakeven rate for an auction of this term since January 2021. It indicates that this TIPS will outperform a nominal 10-year Treasury if inflation averages more than 2.16% over the next 9 years, 10 months.

Here is the trend in the 10-year inflation breakeven rate since January 2023, showing the sharply downward trend since May 2024:

I think it would be logical that the Fed’s dovish cut of 50 basis points would increase fears of potential inflation, since the Fed now seems to be focusing its attention on labor markets versus U.S. inflation. And the result? This rate of 2.16% is slightly higher than the breakeven at Tuesday’s market close, 2.12%.

Reaction to the auction

As I noted, this auction result looks right on target with expectations. Both the Treasury and investors can be pleased with the result. Demand was reasonably strong and the real yield was reasonably high.

CUSIP 91282CLE9 will have one more reopening auction on November 21, 2024, two weeks after 1) the U.S. presidential election on Nov. 5, and 2) another rate-cutting decision by the Federal Reserve on Nov. 6. A whole lot could change by then.

Here is the history of 9- to 10-year TIPS auctions going back to January 2021: