The auction for CUSIP 912828WU0 – a new 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Security – will close today at 1 p.m. Noncompetitive bids – like those submitted through TreasuryDirect – must be place before noon.

Here’s how this auction is shaping up:

• Bloomberg’s Current Yields page is flashing a yield of 0.25% for the 10-year TIPS first issued in January. We can assume the yield on a full 10-year TIPS would be a bit higher.
• The Wall Street Journal’s closing prices chart shows that the same January TIPS closed yesterday at 0.213%, so it appears yields are on the rise today.
• The Treasury’s Real Yields chart pegs a full-term 10-year TIPS at a yield of 0.25%.
• The TIP ETF is trading right now at $115.04, down 0.3% on the day, also indicating that yields are on the rise.

From this data, buyers at today’s auction are looking at a yield above 0.25%, possibly up to 0.30%. In fact, 0.30% would not be a surprise, given weakness in the TIPS market today. This should set the coupon rate at 0.250%. A yield below 0.25% would drop the coupon rate – which is set at this initial auction – down to 0.125%.

But as I have noted frequently in the past, it is very difficult to predict precisely the yield on a new TIPS. Surprises can result when new inventory enters the market.

I’ll be posting after 1 p.m. with the auction results, and have more reaction later one.