Author Archives: Tipswatch

Summary Both all-items and core inflation came in at 0.0% for the month, less than the consensus forecasts. The BLS called the report “mixed,” reflecting large variances in price increases or decreases across the economy. For holders of TIPS and … Continue reading →

Summary The U.S. Treasury did the right thing today, keeping I Bonds and EE Bonds very attractive investments, for different reasons. I Bonds purchased from November 2020 to April 2021 will earn a composite annualized interest rate of 1.68% for … Continue reading →

Summary The result, which dipped below recent market indicators, was the second-lowest real yield for any TIPS auction of this term. Investors had to pay a sizable premium for this TIPS, about 7.5% above par value, to collect a coupon … Continue reading →

Summary The U.S. Treasury will offer a new 5-year TIPS at auction Thursday. The real yield looks likely to come in around -1.21%, which is pretty awful but isn’t a record low. The only way to judge this TIPS is … Continue reading →

Summary We now know the I Bond’s next inflation-adjusted variable rate, which is rising to 1.68% from the current 1.06%. The permanent fixed rate, currently 0.0%, will be reset on November 1, but is highly likely to remain at 0.0%. … Continue reading →

Summary Social Security payments will increase 1.3% in January, adding about $20 a month for the average recipient. However, a hike in Medicare premiums could wipe out part of that increase. The inflation-adjusted variable rate for U.S. Series I Savings … Continue reading →

Summary After a strong run over the last 12 months, these short-term Treasury ETFs are now yielding very close to zero. There’s little upside potential and little yield benefit over Treasury money market funds, which lock in your share price … Continue reading →

Summary The real yield of -0.966% was slightly higher than where this TIPS was trading on the secondary market just minutes before the auction’s close. The inflation break-even rate settled in at 1.65%, which looks like a reasonable number. Inflation … Continue reading →

Summary The 10-year real yield has dipped deeply negative, to nearly 1% below inflation. But that reflects the bond market’s very low nominal yields. This TIPS’ inflation breakeven rate of about 1.67% is still appealing. For the first $10,000 you … Continue reading →

Summary Both all-items inflation (at 0.4%) and core inflation (at 0.4%) were higher than consensus estimates, continuing a recent trend. The August inflation report is signaling a 1.2% increase in the Social Security COLA for 2021, but one more month … Continue reading →