Author Archives: Tipswatch

Summary Both real and nominal yields climbed sharply in 2018, especially for shorter terms. The yield curve has dramatically flattened, possibly pointing to an economic slowdown. TIPS auctions were a mixed bag in 2018: the 30-year auctions were unattractive, the … Continue reading →

Summary You have to go back to April 2009 to find a 4- to 5-year TIPS auction with a higher real yield. The inflation breakeven rate came in at 1.51%, very low by recent trends and a favorable indicator for … Continue reading →

Summary The real yield could be about 1.12%, the highest after-inflation yield in nearly 10 years of 4- to 5-year TIPS auctions. The real yield curve has inverted, with the 5-year TIPS now yielding about 6 basis points more than … Continue reading →

Summary Headline inflation came in at 0.0% in November and was up 2.2% year-over-year. Core inflation was up 0.2% for the month and 2.2% for the year. Non-seasonally adjusted inflation actually fell 0.33% in November, which means investors in TIPS … Continue reading →

Summary The last time a 9- to 10-year TIPS auctioned with a real yield above 1.00% was on January 20, 2011, at 1.17%. Buyers got this TIPS at a substantial discount because the real yield was well above the coupon … Continue reading →

Summary TIPS funds have taken a hit in 2018, but that damage has been partially  offset by distributions caused by rising inflation. The total return of shorter-term TIPS funds remains positive for the year, thanks to a shorter duration and … Continue reading →

Summary The real (after-inflation) yield looks likely to top 1.00% for the first time for any 9- to 10-year TIPS auction since January 2011. The inflation breakeven rate is currently a reasonable 2.02% and should attract strong demand at this … Continue reading →