Author Archives: tipswatch

Summary The I Bond’s inflation-adjusted rate will rise slightly on November 1, so there is no pressure to buy before then. But could the I Bond’s fixed rate fall from its current 0.3%? The data suggest zero chance, but the … Continue reading →

Summary With a few days to go to Thursday’s auction, this TIPS is trading on the secondary market with a real yield of 1.19%, a two-year high. Investors will get this TIPS at a discount, because the after-inflation yield will … Continue reading →

Summary September inflation rose 0.1%, under the consensus estimate. Annual inflation fell to 2.3%, also under estimates. Today’s inflation report means the Social Security COLA will increase 2.8% for 2019, the highest increase since 2012. The data also set the … Continue reading →

Summary Bank CD rates are finally climbing toward reasonable levels. How long has it been since we have seen 3% for a 3-year term? But across most short-term maturities, U.S. Treasurys offer better yields, ultimate safety and freedom from state … Continue reading →

Summary The real yield of 0.910% was the second highest of this term through 43 auctions since May 2011. The inflation breakeven rate came in at 2.15%, on the higher end of recent auctions, but still acceptably in the “neutral … Continue reading →

Summary The current trend indicates a real yield around 0.88%, which is attractive, at least based on auctions over the last seven years. The problem? A 5-year TIPS is currently yielding 1 basis point higher than a 10-year. Why buy … Continue reading →

Summary August headline inflation came in below the consensus for the month and year. Core inflation was also below the consensus. The current trend in CPI-W would place the 2019 Social Security cost-of-living increase in a range of 2.7% to … Continue reading →