Author Archives: Tipswatch

Summary Headline inflation numbers matched the consensus forecast, but core inflation ran higher than expected. Gasoline prices were down, moderating overall inflation. With one month of data remaining, the Social Security COLA looks likely to increase 1.6% to 1.8% for … Continue reading →

Summary The lowly EE Savings Bond now offers substantial yield advantages over similarly safe investments of the same term around the world. EE Bonds make sense only for investors who can hold them 20 years, creating an effective yield of … Continue reading →

Summary Today’s reopening auction generated a real yield of 0.501%, a whopping 59 basis points lower than the originating auction on February 21, 2019. Investors had to pay a huge premium for the 1.0% coupon rate, about $115.68 for about … Continue reading →

Summary The real yield looks likely to come in around 0.46%, down 63 basis points from the originating auction in February. Buyers will be paying a steep premium for the coupon rate of 1.0%, about 15% above par value. The … Continue reading →

Summary The TIP ETF has had a total return of 8.33% so far in 2019, slightly outperforming the overall bond market. Shorter-term TIPS funds have also performed well, but the gain has been less dramatic. A relatively low 10-year inflation … Continue reading →

Summary Both headline and core inflation numbers came in higher than expected, indicating inflation is not ‘dead’ and deflation is not looming. The July number sets a path for a 1.6% to 1.8% increase in the 2020 Social Security cost-of-living … Continue reading →

Summary The Social Security Administration uses a complex formula, and an unusual inflation index, to set the annual COLA increase. Once again, the Social Security COLA looks like it will be lower than overall U.S. inflation. (That wasn’t true for … Continue reading →