Author Archives: Tipswatch

Summary The new Treasury reality is negative real returns and stunningly low inflation expectations. The auction result of a real yield to maturity of -0.320% matched the Treasury’s overnight estimate. The inflation breakeven rate of 0.69% makes this TIPS – … Continue reading →

Summary A new 5-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Security — CUSIP 912828ZJ2 — will be created at auction Thursday. This TIPS looks likely to get a real yield to maturity in the range of -0.20% to -0.30%, but a firm prediction is … Continue reading →

Summary Real yields for TIPS are now negative across the entire maturity spectrum: 5-year, 10-year and 30-year. The Treasury has no reason to keep the I Bond’s fixed rate above 0.0% when the 10-year TIPS is yielding -0.50%. Act before … Continue reading →

Summary U.S. Series I Savings Bonds purchased before May 1 will pay a composite interest rate of 2.22% for six months, and then 1.26% for six months. I Bonds remain the world’s best inflation-protected investment, especially if you purchase them … Continue reading →

Summary A unique feature of I Bonds is that yields are set for six-month periods and won’t change. Investors can now lock in the current yield of 2.22% for six months. Deflation is coming, but shouldn’t be reflected harshly in … Continue reading →

Summary This was an investor-friendly auction: The real yield of 0.68% was much higher than looked likely a week ago. The inflation breakeven rate of 0.43% is “out-of-normal” low and seems to be pricing in a dire economic future. Treasury … Continue reading →

Summary Market turmoil has created incredible volatility, even for mundane investments like U.S. Treasurys. Friday’s real yield of 0.04% would have been “attractive,” but it isn’t likely to hold in light of the Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting action Sunday. The current … Continue reading →

Summary The TIP ETF has lost more than 6% of its value in a few days, and is falling sharply again this morning. A key reason is that inflation expectations are plummeting, causing the TIP ETF price to fall versus … Continue reading →

Summary The inflation numbers came in close to the consensus, but year-over-year core inflation came in slightly high at 2.4%. Investors are pricing in extremely low inflation over the next 10 years. Is this an overreaction to short-term news? Yes, … Continue reading →

Summary Series I Savings Bonds purchased through April 30 will have a permanent “real yield” of 0.2%, well above TIPS yields of any maturity. I Bonds carry many benefits over TIPS, including tax-deferred interest and rock-solid deflation protection. Another Savings … Continue reading →