By David Enna, Tipswatch.com
Because of a remarkable confluence of events, including last week’s presidential election result, real and nominal yields for U.S. Treasurys have been rising dramatically, up 40 to 50 basis points since October 1.
But this article is not about politics. It is about opportunity.
Just a couple months ago, I was hearing from investors ruing the fact they missed the chance to build a ladder of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities with yields near 2024 highs. But now that real yields have again surged higher, that door is open again.
Why a TIPS ladder?
Jason Zweig, personal finance columnist for the Wall Street Journal, wrote an article last week titled, “What to Buy if the Election Has You Worrying About Inflation.” I talked with Zweig last week before he posted the article. A lot of our discussion focused on the sometimes unexpected risks of investing in ETFs holding a broad range of TIPS. From the article:
In 2021, TIPS funds returned an average of 5.5%, while a U.S. bond index fund fell 1.7%. Naturally, investors and financial advisers bought TIPS in titanic quantities that year, pouring $42.4 billion into mutual funds and exchange-traded funds that specialize in them, according to Morningstar.
Right on cue, in 2022 the Fed jacked up interest rates and TIPS lost about 12%. Fickle investors fled TIPS funds, yanking out a combined $37.2 billion in 2022 and 2023.
Dumping all this money into and out of TIPS makes no sense.
Zweig then explained the advantages of buying individual TIPS and holding to maturity:
If you buy TIPS directly and hold them to maturity, your future rate of return after inflation is certain, as is the return of your principal. …
“We aren’t mathematical beings, we are emotional animals,” says Allan Roth, a financial planner at Wealth Logic in Colorado Springs, Colo. If you buy TIPS directly, “you know your spending power, what your cash flow is going to buy, in each future period,” he says. “You don’t know that if you buy a TIPS fund. And that makes it easier to stay the course if you own the TIPS directly.”
I am not a fan of broad-based TIPS funds and ETFs, although I have owned them in the past. By the time of the big bond decline of 2022, I had consolidated my TIPS funds holdings into Vanguard’s Short-Term TIPS ETF (VTIP) which ended 2022 with a total return of -2.96%, not devastating. As TIPS real yields started climbing out of negative, I began converting all my VTIP and part of my Total Bond Fund (BND) investments into a ladder of individual TIPS, all in a traditional retirement account.
Roth has been an important advocate for using a ladder of TIPS (at current yields) to create a reliable and totally safe withdrawal rate of 4%+ through a 30-year retirement. And thanks to his urging, the process of filling a TIPS ladder has gotten a lot easier. Just last month, Roth published an article titled, “Four Easy Steps to Build a TIPS Ladder.” He writes:
The world is and always has been risky and it’s feeling riskier than usual. What if stocks have a real and protracted plunge rather than the teddy bears we have had this century? What if all of this government debt causes hyperinflation? Building a TIPS ladder gives us a license to spend and creates a spending floor.
Roth’s article gives step-by-step instructions for creating a model TIPS ladder using the tool at Tipsladder.com. I won’t repeat the steps here, but the result could be an investment list like this — at a cost of $452,656 — for a TIPS ladder running from 2025 to 2054 and providing a safe, inflation-adjusted base income of $20,000 a year, with a safe withdrawal rate of 4.42%.

An opportunity to build, or improve
Here is a chart showing real yields for 5-, 10-, and 30-year TIPS over the last 15 years, showing how TIPS of all maturities are near highs for this 15-year period.
The unique thing about this chart is the alignment of real yields into a much tighter band than we’ve seen historically. And that means that an investor can find attractive real yields for every year of a TIPS ladder. That’s an opportunity.
My personal TIPS ladder was built chaotically, and I have added in some nominal Treasurys and CDs timed to mature in the years 2025 to 2029 to allow me to purchase 10-year TIPS to fill the gap years of 2035 to 2039. Here are my Treasury investments laddered through 2043, with a comparison to the real yields you can find today on the secondary market:
Looking at this list, I’d say I could do better today in some cases than I did building the ladder in late summer/early fall 2023. I am happy with these investments, but will still look for opportunities to add to the ladder. Just last week, for example, I purchased the July 2034 TIPS with a real yield of 2.008%. (That same TIPS will have a reopening auction on November 21.)
Can real yields continue climbing higher? Certainly. But if you can nail down a real yield of 2.0%+ over the long term, you’ll end up fine, with a safe yearly withdrawal rate of 4.4% or more.
My ladder ends in 2043, but if you are building beyond that year, you can find very attractive yields through 2054. The real yield curve has been steepening, meaning you get a better return for a longer maturity. These very-long term TIPS are highly volatile, so you need to invest, forget and hold to maturity. Zweig writes:
Of course, in the bond-market bloodbath of 2022, the prices of individual TIPS fell. So did TIPS funds. Those losses apparently felt much more intense to people who owned TIPS funds than they did to investors who owned the underlying securities directly. That’s probably because direct holders draw comfort from the expectation that they’ll hold the TIPS until maturity. …
If you want to assure yourself of having a known amount of investment income in a specific year, buy TIPS directly. …
I’m buying TIPS. You should, too.
• Now is an ideal time to build a TIPS ladder
• Confused by TIPS? Read my Q&A on TIPS
• TIPS in depth: Understand the language
• TIPS on the secondary market: Things to consider
• TIPS investor: Don’t over-think the threat of deflation
• Upcoming schedule of TIPS auctions
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Follow Tipswatch on X (Twitter) for updates on daily Treasury auctions and real yield trends (when I am not traveling).
Feel free to post comments or questions below. If it is your first-ever comment, it will have to wait for moderation. After that, your comments will automatically appear. Please stay on topic and avoid political tirades. NOTE: Comment threads can only be three responses deep. If you see that you cannot respond, create a new comment and reference the topic.
David Enna is a financial journalist, not a financial adviser. He is not selling or profiting from any investment discussed. I Bonds and TIPS are not “get rich” investments; they are best used for capital preservation and inflation protection. They can be purchased through the Treasury or other providers without fees, commissions or carrying charges. Please do your own research before investing.













Perfect timing on that 20-yr nominal, 4.86%.