Now is a great time to build (or improve) a long-term TIPS ladder

By David Enna, Tipswatch.com

Because of a remarkable confluence of events, including last week’s presidential election result, real and nominal yields for U.S. Treasurys have been rising dramatically, up 40 to 50 basis points since October 1.

But this article is not about politics. It is about opportunity.

Just a couple months ago, I was hearing from investors ruing the fact they missed the chance to build a ladder of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities with yields near 2024 highs. But now that real yields have again surged higher, that door is open again.

Why a TIPS ladder?

Jason Zweig, personal finance columnist for the Wall Street Journal, wrote an article last week titled, “What to Buy if the Election Has You Worrying About Inflation.” I talked with Zweig last week before he posted the article. A lot of our discussion focused on the sometimes unexpected risks of investing in ETFs holding a broad range of TIPS. From the article:

In 2021, TIPS funds returned an average of 5.5%, while a U.S. bond index fund fell 1.7%. Naturally, investors and financial advisers bought TIPS in titanic quantities that year, pouring $42.4 billion into mutual funds and exchange-traded funds that specialize in them, according to Morningstar.

Right on cue, in 2022 the Fed jacked up interest rates and TIPS lost about 12%. Fickle investors fled TIPS funds, yanking out a combined $37.2 billion in 2022 and 2023.

Dumping all this money into and out of TIPS makes no sense. 

Zweig then explained the advantages of buying individual TIPS and holding to maturity:

If you buy TIPS directly and hold them to maturity, your future rate of return after inflation is certain, as is the return of your principal. …

“We aren’t mathematical beings, we are emotional animals,” says Allan Roth, a financial planner at Wealth Logic in Colorado Springs, Colo. If you buy TIPS directly, “you know your spending power, what your cash flow is going to buy, in each future period,” he says. “You don’t know that if you buy a TIPS fund. And that makes it easier to stay the course if you own the TIPS directly.”

I am not a fan of broad-based TIPS funds and ETFs, although I have owned them in the past. By the time of the big bond decline of 2022, I had consolidated my TIPS funds holdings into Vanguard’s Short-Term TIPS ETF (VTIP) which ended 2022 with a total return of -2.96%, not devastating. As TIPS real yields started climbing out of negative, I began converting all my VTIP and part of my Total Bond Fund (BND) investments into a ladder of individual TIPS, all in a traditional retirement account.

Roth has been an important advocate for using a ladder of TIPS (at current yields) to create a reliable and totally safe withdrawal rate of 4%+ through a 30-year retirement. And thanks to his urging, the process of filling a TIPS ladder has gotten a lot easier. Just last month, Roth published an article titled, “Four Easy Steps to Build a TIPS Ladder.” He writes:

The world is and always has been risky and it’s feeling riskier than usual. What if stocks have a real and protracted plunge rather than the teddy bears we have had this century? What if all of this government debt causes hyperinflation? Building a TIPS ladder gives us a license to spend and creates a spending floor.

Roth’s article gives step-by-step instructions for creating a model TIPS ladder using the tool at Tipsladder.com. I won’t repeat the steps here, but the result could be an investment list like this — at a cost of $452,656 — for a TIPS ladder running from 2025 to 2054 and providing a safe, inflation-adjusted base income of $20,000 a year, with a safe withdrawal rate of 4.42%.

Click on image for larger version. Source: Tipsladder.com

An opportunity to build, or improve

Here is a chart showing real yields for 5-, 10-, and 30-year TIPS over the last 15 years, showing how TIPS of all maturities are near highs for this 15-year period.

Click on image for larger version.

The unique thing about this chart is the alignment of real yields into a much tighter band than we’ve seen historically. And that means that an investor can find attractive real yields for every year of a TIPS ladder. That’s an opportunity.

My personal TIPS ladder was built chaotically, and I have added in some nominal Treasurys and CDs timed to mature in the years 2025 to 2029 to allow me to purchase 10-year TIPS to fill the gap years of 2035 to 2039. Here are my Treasury investments laddered through 2043, with a comparison to the real yields you can find today on the secondary market:

Looking at this list, I’d say I could do better today in some cases than I did building the ladder in late summer/early fall 2023. I am happy with these investments, but will still look for opportunities to add to the ladder. Just last week, for example, I purchased the July 2034 TIPS with a real yield of 2.008%. (That same TIPS will have a reopening auction on November 21.)

Can real yields continue climbing higher? Certainly. But if you can nail down a real yield of 2.0%+ over the long term, you’ll end up fine, with a safe yearly withdrawal rate of 4.4% or more.

My ladder ends in 2043, but if you are building beyond that year, you can find very attractive yields through 2054. The real yield curve has been steepening, meaning you get a better return for a longer maturity. These very-long term TIPS are highly volatile, so you need to invest, forget and hold to maturity. Zweig writes:

Of course, in the bond-market bloodbath of 2022, the prices of individual TIPS fell. So did TIPS funds. Those losses apparently felt much more intense to people who owned TIPS funds than they did to investors who owned the underlying securities directly. That’s probably because direct holders draw comfort from the expectation that they’ll hold the TIPS until maturity. …

If you want to assure yourself of having a known amount of investment income in a specific year, buy TIPS directly. …

I’m buying TIPS. You should, too.

Now is an ideal time to build a TIPS ladder

Confused by TIPS? Read my Q&A on TIPS

TIPS in depth: Understand the language

TIPS on the secondary market: Things to consider

TIPS investor: Don’t over-think the threat of deflation

Upcoming schedule of TIPS auctions

* * *

Follow Tipswatch on X (Twitter) for updates on daily Treasury auctions and real yield trends (when I am not traveling).

Feel free to post comments or questions below. If it is your first-ever comment, it will have to wait for moderation. After that, your comments will automatically appear. Please stay on topic and avoid political tirades. NOTE: Comment threads can only be three responses deep. If you see that you cannot respond, create a new comment and reference the topic.

David Enna is a financial journalist, not a financial adviser. He is not selling or profiting from any investment discussed. I Bonds and TIPS are not “get rich” investments; they are best used for capital preservation and inflation protection. They can be purchased through the Treasury or other providers without fees, commissions or carrying charges. Please do your own research before investing.

Posted in Cash alternatives, Federal Reserve, Inflation, Investing in TIPS, Retirement, TreasuryDirect | 76 Comments

Treasury sets I Bond’s fixed rate at 1.20%, composite rate falls to 3.11%

But … no clarification yet on delivery of gift-box purchases.

By David Enna, Tipswatch.com

The U.S. Treasury just announced a 1.20% fixed interest rate for the Series I Savings Bond, creating a new six-month composite rate of 3.11% for purchases from November 2024 through April 2025.

No surprises there. This is exactly what I was predicting in my preview article posted earlier this week.

At this point, it appears the Treasury is holding the annual purchase cap at $10,000 per person per year. But it has not yet posted the full news release on the rate change. That could be coming tomorrow.

Nov. 1 update: Here is the Treasury announcement, which confirms the fixed and composite rates.

In addition, Treasury has issued no clarification on delivery of I Bonds held as gift-box purchases. In a recent email, TreasuryDirect had asked investors to deliver those gifts “as soon as possible.” The site continues to say this:

Savings bonds you purchase as gifts aren’t included in your annual limit. The purchase amount of electronic savings bonds you transfer, deliver as gifts, or de-link to another TreasuryDirect account holder is applied to the annual purchase limit of the recipient. It is applied in the year the bonds are delivered to the recipient’s account.

In recent days, some callers to TreasuryDirect have received advice to 1) go ahead and deliver all gift-box savings bonds to recipients, and 2) face a temporary ban on future purchases because of those deliveries. The still-active statement from the Treasury’s Research Center contradicts that feedback.

So … we are still awaiting clarification. It could be that changes are coming January 1, so we may need to wait for detailed information.

The I Bond rate reset

The interest rate on a Series I Savings Bond changes every six months, based on inflation. The rate can go up, or as in this case, down. The overall rate is calculated from a fixed rate and an inflation-adjusted variable rate. The fixed rate never changes. The variable rate is reset every six months and so is the composite rate.

The fixed rate was set at 1.20%, which is in line with the formula the Treasury appears to have been using for a decade: Applying a ratio of 0.65 to the six-month average of the real yields of the 5-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Security. The rate of 1.20% was consistent with my forecast:

The fixed rate is always set to the 1/10th decimal point, so variations in the ratio reflect rounding. But the 5-year TIPS yield has been a good forecast tool.

The variable rate was based on six months of inflation data from April to September 2024. The increase was 0.95%, which is doubled to determine the six-month, annualized variable rate of 1.90%.

You can view the history of I Bond variable rates and fixed rates on my Q&A on I Bonds page. Also, you can see historical inflation data on my Inflation and I Bonds page.

The composite rate doesn’t simply combine the two rates, but uses a formula to reflect potential compounding during the six-month term. The end result was 3.11% instead of the 3.10% you’d get from simple addition.

The new six-month, annualized composite rate for purchases through April 2025 will be 3.11%, down from 4.28% for purchases through October. For holders of recent I Bonds with a fixed rate of 1.3%, the composite rate will be 3.21%. If you are holding an I Bond with a fixed rate of 0.0%, the new six-month composite rate will be 1.90%.

While those rates are lower than you can find on a 4-week Treasury bill (currently 4.87%), an I Bond with a fixed rate of 1.2% or 1.3% remains attractive, in my opinion. It will out-perform official U.S. inflation by more than 1.0%, with total safety, tax-deferred interest, and a flexible maturity date.

If your investment timeline is relatively short-term, go with T-bills. I Bonds are better used as a medium- to longer-term cash-equivalent investment.

EE Bonds

Also today, The Treasury set the fixed rate for the Series EE Savings Bond at 2.60%, down 10 basis points from the current 2.70%. The doubling period remains at 20 years, meaning the EE will earn 3.53% annually if held for 20 years. That rate is well below the 4.60% yield of a 20-year Treasury, meaning EE Bonds will be largely ignored unless short-term savings rates fall below 2.60% before April.

Confused by I Bonds? Read my Q&A on I Bonds

Let’s ‘try’ to clarify how an I Bond’s interest is calculated

Inflation and I Bonds: Track the variable rate changes

I Bonds: Here’s a simple way to track current value

I Bond Manifesto: How this investment can work as an emergency fund

* * *

Follow Tipswatch on X (Twitter) for updates on daily Treasury auctions and real yield trends (when I am not traveling).

Feel free to post comments or questions below. If it is your first-ever comment, it will have to wait for moderation. After that, your comments will automatically appear. Please stay on topic and avoid political tirades. NOTE: Comment threads can only be three responses deep. If you see that you cannot respond, create a new comment and reference the topic.

David Enna is a financial journalist, not a financial adviser. He is not selling or profiting from any investment discussed. I Bonds and TIPS are not “get rich” investments; they are best used for capital preservation and inflation protection. They can be purchased through the Treasury or other providers without fees, commissions or carrying charges. Please do your own research before investing.

Posted in Cash alternatives, I Bond, Inflation, Retirement, Savings Bond, TreasuryDirect | 23 Comments

It’s going to be a big week for I Bonds

Oct. 31 update: Treasury sets I Bond’s fixed rate at 1.20%, composite rate falls to 3.11%

By David Enna, Tipswatch.com

By Thursday (or possibly Friday) we are going to get a lot of new information about U.S. Series I Savings Bonds: a new variable rate, new fixed rate, new composite rate and potentially new rules for gift-box purchases and — if we are fortunate — an increase in the annual purchase limit.

Technically, these changes will take effect Friday, November 1, but the Treasury has lately announced the new rates the day before, since purchases on that last day — October 31 — will be getting the new November rates. But with TreasuryDirect everything is mysterious, so we get this notice on its main page:

That notice seems to imply you could make an I Bond purchase on Thursday and still get the current 4.28% composite rate. However, when you place an order on TreasuryDirect, it completes on the next business day. So if you purchase I Bonds on October 31, you will “complete your purchase” on November 1, and you will get the new November rate. Do not wait until Thursday if you are making an I Bond purchase and want the current 4.28% composite rate.

Update, Monday 10:05 p.m.: TreasuryDirect updated its homepage notice to reflect that the actual deadline for making an October-registered I Bond purchase is Wednesday, Oct. 30:

New variable rate

Certainty factor: 100%

This one is already set: The I Bond’s new inflation-adjusted variable rate will be 1.90%, down from the current 2.96%, for purchases beginning November 1. It will roll into effect for all I Bonds eventually, depending on the month of purchase.

The variable rate was set by the increase in non-seasonally adjusted inflation for the months of April to September 2024. The increase was 0.95%, which is doubled to determine the six-month, annualized variable rate of 1.90%.

New fixed rate

Certainty factor: 80%

The Treasury does not reveal how it sets the I Bond’s fixed rate, but in recent years I have found a reliable predictor: Take the six-month average of the 5-year TIPS yield and apply a ratio of 0.65. In recent years, this has been an accurate predictor.

The fixed rate is always rounded to the 1/10th decimal point. In recent weeks the formula been pointing to a new fixed rate of 1.20%, and I confirmed that with data through Friday’s market close:

In the chart, I have included the 10-year real yield as a check. It also predicts a fixed rate of 1.20%. This is not a certainty, but a hopefully an accurate forecast.

New composite rate

Certainty factor: 80%

The new variable rate will be 1.90%, and if the fixed rate is set at 1.20%, the I Bond’s new composite rate for purchases from November 2024 to April 2025 will be 3.11%, down from the current 4.28%. For I Bonds with the 1.3% fixed rate, the new composite rate will be 3.21%.

While these rates look low compared to current 4-week Treasury yields (4.89%), keep in mind that the permanent fixed rate is much more important than the variable rate or six-month composite rate. A fixed rate of 1.2% or 1.3% means you will get a yield higher than inflation, with total safety, for potentially 30 years.

Plus, as the Fed continues is rate-cutting path, short-term T-bill yields should be falling through much of 2025. I Bonds are best used as a medium- to long-term cash-equivalent investment.

Gift-box purchases

Certainty factor: 50%

As I noted in an article last week, TreasuryDirect is sending emails to its customers with I Bonds stored in gift boxes to deliver those gifts “as soon as possible.” You can read more about that here: “Deciphering TreasuryDirect’s mysterious gift-box email“.

Nothing is certain because the Treasury isn’t giving us full information. But it does appear it wants gift-box purchases to be delivered quickly, either this year or early next year, even if those deliveries would exceed the recipient’s annual purchase limit of $10,000. And that is exactly what many people have been doing (including me), without any problem. See this Bogleheads thread for more discussion.

So it looks like changes are coming to the gift-box program. It may be eliminated entirely for new purchases, either as of November 1 or January 1. Or it may be scaled back to its original purpose, to grant small gifts to grandchildren, for example. Or … nothing will happen and we can shake our heads.

I hope we learn more on Thursday or Friday.

Increase in the purchase cap

Certainty factor: 35%

Several callers to TreasuryDirect have gotten feedback that “changes are coming” to the savings bond program. Plus, recall that the $5,000 paper I Bond option in lieu of the federal tax refund is being eliminated as of January 1.

Here is what I suspect (or maybe it is just my wishful thinking): The Treasury will scale back or eliminate the gift-box program, while at the same time raising the savings bond annual purchase limit to $20,000 or even $30,000.

High use of the gift-box program should have sent a strong signal to the Treasury that the $10,000 purchase limit is too low to meet the demand of even small-scale investors.

When I Bonds were first created in the fall of 1998, the purchase limit was $30,000 per person per year. However, ten years later, the Treasury determined about 98% of all savings bonds were purchased in amounts under $5,000. This triggered a new policy in 2008: a $5,000 limit per calendar year.

The current limit of $10,000 per person went into effect in January 2012. If that $10,000 limit had been adjusted for inflation since 2012, it would be about $13,700 today.

Clearly, it is time to raise the purchase limit. Will it happen? Maybe, maybe not. But I hope we find out on Friday.

Confused by I Bonds? Read my Q&A on I Bonds

Let’s ‘try’ to clarify how an I Bond’s interest is calculated

Inflation and I Bonds: Track the variable rate changes

I Bonds: Here’s a simple way to track current value

I Bond Manifesto: How this investment can work as an emergency fund

* * *

Follow Tipswatch on X (Twitter) for updates on daily Treasury auctions and real yield trends (when I am not traveling).

Feel free to post comments or questions below. If it is your first-ever comment, it will have to wait for moderation. After that, your comments will automatically appear. Please stay on topic and avoid political tirades. NOTE: Comment threads can only be three responses deep. If you see that you cannot respond, create a new comment and reference the topic.

David Enna is a financial journalist, not a financial adviser. He is not selling or profiting from any investment discussed. I Bonds and TIPS are not “get rich” investments; they are best used for capital preservation and inflation protection. They can be purchased through the Treasury or other providers without fees, commissions or carrying charges. Please do your own research before investing.

Posted in Cash alternatives, I Bond, Inflation, Savings Bond, TreasuryDirect | Tagged , , | 56 Comments

New 5-year TIPS gets a real yield of 1.670% to potentially lukewarm demand

By David Enna, Tipswatch.com

The Treasury’s offering of $24 billion in a new 5-year TIPS, CUSIP 91282CLV1, auctioned today with a real yield to maturity of 1.670%, the lowest for this term since April 2023.

This one is a bit hard to read because of the unusual nature of the October TIPS auction each year, which almost always gets a real yield below the apparent market rate. I talked about this in my preview article on this auction.

The Treasury’s estimate of the real yield of a full-term 5-year TIPS closed Wednesday at 1.82%, but yields have been sliding lower this morning. The most recent TIPS on the secondary market, maturing in April 2029, was trading at about 1.76%. But the new TIPS auctioned each October gets a lower real yield than the April TIPS because it won’t be exposed to weak non-seasonally adjusted inflation in its closing months to maturity.

The key number to look at is the “when issued” prediction for this auction, released just before the close. That number predicted a real yield of 1.641%, so today’s auction result came in higher than expected at 1.670%. The bid-to-cover ratio, a good indication of investor demand, was 2.40, below recent auctions of this term. All of that indicates investor demand wasn’t strong.

The October auction is always a bit of an outlier. Here is the trend in the 5-year real yield through 2024, showing the sharp decline beginning in May and then reversing in late September:

Click on image for larger version.

Pricing

This was a new TIPS, so the Treasury set its coupon rate at 1.625%, one notch below the real yield of 1.670%. It will carry an inflation index of 1.00042 on the settlement date of Oct. 31. All this means investors got it at a slight discount, an unadjusted price of 99.786263. Here is how a purchase of $10,000 par would be priced:

  • Par value: $10,000.
  • Principal on settlement date: $10,000 x 1.00042 = $10,004.20.
  • Cost of investment: $10,004.20 x 0.99786263= $9,982.82.
  • + accrued interest of $7.15.

In summary, an investor purchasing $10,000 par paid $9,982.82 and will receive principal of $10,004.20 on Oct. 31. The accrued interest will be returned at the first coupon payment.

Inflation breakeven rate

With the nominal 5-year Treasury note trading at 4.01% at the auction’s close, this TIPS gets an implied inflation breakeven rate of 2.34%. I say implied because of the unusual nature of the October auctions. Maybe a better estimate would be around 2.29%. If anyone can find a more-official number, let me know.

Here is the trend in the 5-year inflation breakeven rate through 2024, showing a recent surge in inflation expectations:

Click on image for larger version.

Thoughts

TIPS yields were trending slightly lower on Thursday morning, after three weeks of increases. Today’s auction result of a 1.670% real yield looks attractive, despite the appearance it was below the “market.” That’s just the way this October auction works. But it is below the results of October auctions in 2022 (1.732%) and 2023 (2.440%).

No media service covers TIPS auctions live anymore, but I found this snippet a day later from MarketWatch, via MSN, on Friday:

Treasury’s $24 billion auction of 5-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities was weak, with below-average bidding by non-dealers, according to BMO Capital Markets strategist Vail Hartman.

This TIPS will be reopened at auction on December 19. Here are results for recent auctions of this term, showing the transition from real yields deeply negative to inflation in 2021:

Now is an ideal time to build a TIPS ladder

Confused by TIPS? Read my Q&A on TIPS

TIPS in depth: Understand the language

TIPS on the secondary market: Things to consider

TIPS investor: Don’t over-think the threat of deflation

Upcoming schedule of TIPS auctions

* * *

Follow Tipswatch on X (Twitter) for updates on daily Treasury auctions and real yield trends (when I am not traveling).

Feel free to post comments or questions below. If it is your first-ever comment, it will have to wait for moderation. After that, your comments will automatically appear. Please stay on topic and avoid political tirades. NOTE: Comment threads can only be three responses deep. If you see that you cannot respond, create a new comment and reference the topic.

David Enna is a financial journalist, not a financial adviser. He is not selling or profiting from any investment discussed. I Bonds and TIPS are not “get rich” investments; they are best used for capital preservation and inflation protection. They can be purchased through the Treasury or other providers without fees, commissions or carrying charges. Please do your own research before investing.

Posted in Inflation, Investing in TIPS, TreasuryDirect | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 11 Comments

Deciphering TreasuryDirect’s mysterious gift-box email

By David Enna, Tipswatch.com

Update, Jan 31, 2025: I noted in this article that I was going to make a “test” I Bond purchase in January 2025 to see if it would trigger a purchase limit because of gift box deliveries in 2024. The transaction was scheduled for Jan. 29 and the money was withdrawn by the Treasury on that date. A day later, TreasuryDirect showed the I Bond in the account, dated Jan 1 2025. So it all worked without a hitch.

Update, Oct 24, 2024: Read through the comments section below for a fascinating discussion on client conversations with TreasuryDirect, which seems to be settling on a clearer “party line” for investors.

For example, this is from reader James S:

Well, I had another call with Treasury Direct this morning. I explained my situation very clearly (my significant other and I each have four sets of Ibonds in gift boxes, each at $10,000, for a total of $40,000). I asked if there would be any repercussions if ALL of those gifts were delivered now and the answer was no, it is perfectly acceptable to deliver all gift Ibonds now. The only restriction is that the recipient would NOT be able to make any further purchases this year.

The reasoning given is that they are “switching to a new system” and want as many gifts delivered as possible before the switch. I assume this means gift Ibonds are going to be phased out.

The same sort of thing can be seen in the Bogleheads thread, with the great majority of people reporting that TreasuryDirect states it will allow gift-box deliveries over the purchase limit: For example:

I also contacted Treasury Direct today. The rep I spoke to was R***y who communicated the following to me:

  • There is no limit to how many bonds that can be delivered to a recipient.
  • The $10,000 limit references that each bond is limited to $10,000. There is no limit to how many bonds can be delivered to a recipient, even if the recipient has already purchased $10,000 in their own name.
  • R***y was aware that I had 3×10,000 bonds sitting in my gift box waiting for delivery to my DW. I was instructed to deliver all the bonds to DW
  • I asked if I would be subject to any repercussions or penalties for delivering all the bonds at once right now. I was told “no”.
  • I asked if any changes to rules or communications could be expected in the near future to provide better clarity. I was told, “possibly” and something along the lines of “sure as technology changes permitted”

What this means: All indications are that your gift-box purchases can be delivered now. That action makes sense because if you wait until 2025, the delivery will count against the recipient’s ability to purchase additional I Bonds in 2025. So you will have more flexibility if you deliver the I Bonds in 2024.

Am I certain about this path? No, sorry, but that is what TD is indicating.

What I did: I volunteered to be a lab experiment and just went in and delivered our two gift sets of I Bonds, purchased in April and September 2024. The process was quite easy, and I was also able to change the I Bonds to our standard “with” ownership after the deliveries.

When you do this: You will obviously need to know the account number and password for each account, and you will need to reenter the recipient’s account number as the last step before submitting.

————————————————–

TreasuryDirect this week began sending out emails to investors holding U.S. Series I Savings Bonds in gift boxes, suggesting that these bonds should be delivered “as soon as possible.” Here is what investors are seeing:

At first, this odd email set off “phish” alarms for recipients because it is highly unusual for TreasuryDirect to suggest urgency for delivery of gift savings bonds. That confusion caused TreasuryDirect to post an equally unspecific explanation that this is an authentic email. That page says:

The US Treasury is asking customers with undelivered bonds to deliver them to their recipient, who have ownership of the bond(s).

Something clearly is up. Some investors fear an end to the gift-box program is looming. (Could be right). Some fear I Bonds will be eliminated entirely. (Not likely). Many are just plain confused. (Understandable). See the Bogleheads discussion.

The TreasuryDirect rules governing gift-box purchases have always been clear that the purchase does not apply to the purchaser’s limit of $10,000 per person per year. It has been less clear, but always assumed, is that the amount will apply to the recipient’s purchase limit in the year it is delivered.

Bonds purchased or transferred as gifts will be included in the computation of this limit for the account of the recipient for the year in which the bonds are delivered to the recipient.

However, does that mean delivery of the I Bonds counts against the $10,000 cap, meaning the recipient could not purchase additional I Bonds? But the recipient could still receive gifts above the cap?

I just got off the phone with TreasuryDirect representative Vanessa. Here is the conversation:

Is this email suggesting that investors should quickly deliver any I Bonds in gift boxes? Does the email mean to suggest there is urgency to do this?

We would like the gift savings bonds to be delivered.

Does this mean that deliveries in 2024 will be allowed to people who have already purchased I Bonds up to the purchase cap?

If you wanted to, you could wait until January 2025 to make the delivery.

But it would be acceptable to make the delivery in 2024 to someone already at the purchase cap?

Correct. We would like the gift box purchases to be delivered.

I have heard that changes are coming to the gift box program? Could it be eliminated in the future?

I am not sure about that.

This information is similar to what Jennifer Lammer, a reliable financial blogger on YouTube, got from TreasuryDirect yesterday:

What do we do now?

I haven’t yet received the gift-box email, but that isn’t unusual. Lammer’s source said the emails are being sent out in waves. I consider the email a monumental failure in communication by TreasuryDirect. It is vague and unspecific, while also seeming to recommend urgency.

So … I think I want to ponder this situation for a few days. If the “deliver now” information continues to seem to be correct, I would go ahead and deliver my two sets of gift-box (husband and wife) purchases before Oct. 31. Delivering in 2024 instead of January 2025 makes sense because it leaves the door open for additional I Bond purchases in 2025.

Something could be changing at the November 1 reset, and that would explain the implied “urgency” in the TreasuryDirect email. We could see an announcement that the gift-box program is ending, along with further instructions.

I do not think that I Bonds will be discontinued, but I have seen speculation on that.

In my wildest imagination, I could see two things happening on January 1:

  1. The gift box program is ended, similar to the end of the paper I Bond program we saw in late August.
  2. The Treasury raises the purchase limit for savings bonds to $20,000 per person per year, which would be a long-overdue improvement.

Is that likely to happen? Probably not. So in the meantime, I will watch for additional information and plan to deliver my gift-box purchases later this month. And then hope I don’t get a slap on the wrist.

I will update this post or write an update if I see additional information.

———–

Confused by I Bonds? Read my Q&A on I Bonds

Let’s ‘try’ to clarify how an I Bond’s interest is calculated

Inflation and I Bonds: Track the variable rate changes

I Bonds: Here’s a simple way to track current value

I Bond Manifesto: How this investment can work as an emergency fund

* * *

Follow Tipswatch on X (Twitter) for updates on daily Treasury auctions and real yield trends (when I am not traveling).

Feel free to post comments or questions below. If it is your first-ever comment, it will have to wait for moderation. After that, your comments will automatically appear. Please stay on topic and avoid political tirades. NOTE: Comment threads can only be three responses deep. If you see that you cannot respond, create a new comment and reference the topic.

David Enna is a financial journalist, not a financial adviser. He is not selling or profiting from any investment discussed. I Bonds and TIPS are not “get rich” investments; they are best used for capital preservation and inflation protection. They can be purchased through the Treasury or other providers without fees, commissions or carrying charges. Please do your own research before investing.

Posted in I Bond, Inflation, Savings Bond, TreasuryDirect | Tagged , | 85 Comments