Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities

A great mystery: I Bond buying guide for 2025

Posted on January 5, 2025 by Tipswatch

By David Enna, Tipswatch.com

April 11, 2025, update: Welcome to the I Bond ‘buying season’

April 10, 2025, update: I Bond’s variable rate will rise to 2.86% on May 1

Update, Jan 31, 2025: I noted in this article that I was going to make a “test” I Bond purchase in January 2025 to see if it would trigger a purchase limit because of gift box deliveries in 2024. The transaction was scheduled for Jan. 29 and the money was withdrawn by the Treasury on that date. A day later, TreasuryDirect showed the I Bond in the account, dated Jan 1 2025. So it all worked without a hitch.

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I’m a big fan of all those Agatha Christie Poirot books, Sherlock Holmes, Philip Marlow, every episode of Columbo on TV. But even those great detectives would have a hard time figuring out TreasuryDirect.

So now we enter a new year, and the annual $10,000 per person purchase cap for U.S. Series I Savings Bonds has reset. But one big question remains for many investors: Can I buy I Bonds this year? And for others: When should I buy I Bonds this year? Or even … Why invest in I Bonds at all?

Just a reminder: An I Bond is a U.S. Treasury security that combines a permanent fixed interest rate with a six-month variable rate, creating an inflation-protected return. They can only be purchased in electronic form at TreasuryDirect.

Can I buy this year?

TreasuryDirect created a lot of confusion in October when it sent an email to investors holding I Bonds in a “gift box” for later delivery. The email seemed to urge delivery of those I Bonds “as soon as possible.” The email was strange, but it was authentic.

Read this for more information: “Deciphering TreasuryDirect’s mysterious gift-box email.”

The gift box program is a widely used loophole that allows people with a trusted partner (such as a spouse) to expand their purchases of I Bonds beyond the $10,000 per person limit. The idea in early 2024 was 1) buy gift I Bonds now to lock in the attractive 1.3% fixed rate, and then 2) deliver them in future years when the fixed rate is lower.

We all assumed one thing: You could not deliver gift I Bonds to anyone who had already purchased up to the limit in that year. TreasuryDirect’s email threw that assumption out the window. I called TreasuryDirect to try to get an explanation, and so did hundreds of my readers and fellow Bogleheads. We learned (unofficially):

TreasuryDirect would like you to deliver gift I Bonds as soon as possible.
It would be OK to deliver I Bonds to a person who had already reached the purchase cap.
And … maybe (or maybe not) … the person receiving I Bonds over the limit would be locked out of buying I Bonds in future years, depending on the amount delivered.
Unspecified “changes” may (or may not) be coming to the savings bond program.

In my case, last year: 1) My wife and I each bought one set of 1.3% I Bonds early in the year, along with two sets each for the gift box. After getting the Treasury’s directive, we successfully delivered those gift box purchases in November 2024.

Now it is January 2025 and I am ready find out: Am I subject to a purchase limitation this year? The answer apparently is “no.”

Last week, I logged into TreasuryDirect to place an I Bond order for my wife’s account:

Everything here is totally normal. Note that I set the purchase date for Jan. 29 because I Bonds earn interest for an entire month, no matter the day they are purchased. I clicked “submit,” looked at the review page and clicked submit again.

Again, totally normal. No warnings. No alerts. I think this purchase will go through on Jan. 29 as a routine transaction. Also, on the BuyDirect page, I noticed a link to “Learn more about Purchase Limitations.” I clicked and found this:

Notice this key wording: “The purchase amount of the savings bonds you transfer, deliver as gifts, or de-link to another TreasuryDirect account holder is applied to the recipient’s annual purchase limit for the year the bonds are delivered …”

My translation: If you receive $10,000 in gift I Bonds before you make your regular $10,000 purchase, you will not be able to buy more that year. But … if you make your regular purchase first, you can receive additional gift deliveries that year.

Important takeaway: If you are planning to deliver gift I Bonds this year, make sure to purchase your regular allocation before any delivery. Then, it appears, the gift I Bonds can still be delivered.

Also: If you made gift I Bond deliveries over the limit last year, you won’t be locked out of making a regular purchase in 2025. This is NOT official, but it is what I and others have experienced.

When should I buy I Bonds this year?

Although I set up a purchase for Jan. 29 to test my purchase theories, my usual advice would not be to buy in January, unless you feel the need to get the one-year-to-redemption clock ticking.

The current I Bond will pay 3.11% nominal for six months. You can do 100 basis points better in a decent money market account or high-yield savings account, for the time being. So there is no rush. Instead, be patient. I Bonds are a long-term investment.

April 10, 2025. We will get the March CPI report at 8:30 a.m. EDT, which will lock in the I Bond’s new six-month variable rate. We will also have a lot more information on whether the fixed rate will be likely to rise at the May 1 reset.

The period from April 10-28 is an ideal time to make a decision: Buy in April or buy in May, or continue waiting?

At this point, it looks possible the I Bond’s fixed rate could increase at the May 1 reset. For that to happen, using our back-of-the-envelope theory, the 5-year TIPS real yield would need to average at least 1.92% from November to April. That would get you back to 1.3%. At this writing, the 5-year TIPS is yielding 1.97%.

We won’t know until later this year. It is smart to wait. The variable rate is not a key factor in this decision, unless you want to make a short-term investment. The fixed rate is much more important for a long-term investor.

Oct. 15, 2025. The September inflation report will be issued on this day, locking in the next variable rate, and by then we will have information on the fixed rate reset coming Nov. 1. So the period from Oct. 15-29 is another potential “prime time” for an I Bond purchase.

Why invest in I Bonds at all?

Yes, at this point you can get a better nominal yield on a 13-week T-bill (4.36%) or a better real yield on a 5-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Security (1.97%). Both of those are attractive, safe investments. (And I invest in both.)

I Bonds, however, have unique qualities. They are an extremely safe and conservative investment. Interest accrues monthly and principal can never decline, even in times of deflation. Earnings are free of state income taxes and federal taxes can be deferred until the I Bond is redeemed or matures.

Also, I Bonds are a simple investment to buy and track, much simpler than a TIPS with a constantly changing market value and inflation accruals that update daily.

With an I Bond purchased today, you are guaranteed to earn 1.2% more than official U.S. inflation, with interest constantly compounding tax-deferred. You can redeem the I Bond after one year with a 3-month interest penalty, or after 5 years with no penalty.

My argument is that I Bonds should be viewed as a cash alternative in the form of a high-quality secondary emergency fund. You can let the principal grow without facing taxes, then after 5 years withdraw money as you need it, paying federal tax on the interest earned.

A lot of shorter-term, yield-hungry investors won’t see the appeal of I Bonds in 2025. That’s fine; there are great short-term options available right now. But many longer-term investors interested in building a sizable reserve of inflation-protected cash will want to buy I Bonds in 2025, up to the limit.

Rolling over 0.0% fixed-rate I Bonds

If you joined the mass movement into I Bonds back in October 2022, when the I Bond’s variable rate was about to reset from 9.62% to 6.48%, you are holding I Bonds with a fixed rate of 0.0% and your composite rate is going to be 1.90% for six months. That’s not a disaster, but many I Bond investors have been redeeming the 0.0% I Bonds and reinvesting the money into 1.3% or 1.2% fixed-rate versions over the last year. Or moving money into other investments.

That was the reason the gift box was so popular in recent years. Investors could redeem 0.0% sets, pay the tax on the interest, and then stash $10,000 into gift-box I Bonds to be delivered in future years. Then the Treasury set off chaos by encouraging these investors to deliver the gift-box bonds as soon as possible.

In the last two years, I have redeemed all our 0.0% fixed rate I Bonds and reinvested the money into the 1.3% or 1.2% versions (as of the scheduled Jan. 29 purchase). This makes sense for me, because I have large holdings in I Bonds and TIPS. Other people, still in the “accumulation phase” of I Bond investing, may want to hold the 0.0% versions and let them continue growing with inflation, tax-deferred.

The rollover process can be a little confusing, based on the limited information TreasuryDirect gives you for each holding. I wrote a guide back in September 2024.

“Just one more thing”

I think Treasury will make changes to the gift box program this year, but even if it doesn’t, I don’t plan to use it again in 2025. Under current rules, it appears that any amount of gift I Bonds can be delivered after an initial $10,000 purchase, Treasury has opened a gaping loophole, but only for people with a trusted partner.

What are your thoughts? Post your ideas and strategies in the comments section below. If you will bypass I Bonds this year, what alternatives are you considering?

• Confused by I Bonds? Read my Q&A on I Bonds

• Let’s ‘try’ to clarify how an I Bond’s interest is calculated

• Inflation and I Bonds: Track the variable rate changes

• I Bonds: Here’s a simple way to track current value

• I Bond Manifesto: How this investment can work as an emergency fund

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Follow Tipswatch on X (Twitter) for updates on daily Treasury auctions and real yield trends (when I am not traveling).

Feel free to post comments or questions below. If it is your first-ever comment, it will have to wait for moderation. After that, your comments will automatically appear. Please stay on topic and avoid political tirades. NOTE: Comment threads can only be three responses deep. If you see that you cannot respond, create a new comment and reference the topic.

David Enna is a financial journalist, not a financial adviser. He is not selling or profiting from any investment discussed. I Bonds and TIPS are not “get rich” investments; they are best used for capital preservation and inflation protection. They can be purchased through the Treasury or other providers without fees, commissions or carrying charges. Please do your own research before investing.

Posted in Cash alternatives, I Bond, Inflation, Savings Bond, TreasuryDirect | Tagged inflation, investing, personal-finance, TIPS, Treasury investments | 55 Comments

2024: An inflation-watcher’s year in review

Posted on December 31, 2024 by Tipswatch

By David Enna, Tipswatch.com

This year 2024 brought many surprises. For example:

Did you think the stock market would soar higher after the Federal Reserve started lowering short-term interest rates? OK, that seemed predictable.
But then did you foresee that longer-term interest rates would move higher as the Fed cut short-term rates? I had a feeling that could happen.
And then that the stock market would continue soaring higher even as longer-term rates were rising?
And that a high-risk, speculative investment like Bitcoin would rise 53% in the 45 days after the November presidential election?
Or that the incoming Trump administration would at first cause stock-market froth and then trigger investor regret about potential policies, all in a two-month span?
Or that the Federal Reserve would end the year apparently ready to pause its rate-cutting path into 2025?

The year 2025 is bringing uncertainty. I would not be surprised to see a fairly large sell-off in stock prices early in the year, with investors eager to harvest gains in the new tax year. But I am not a stock market expert and I have no crystal ball. So instead, here is a look back at 2024:

U.S. inflation

In November 2023, annual U.S. inflation stood at 3.1% for all-items and 4.0% for core. Today, as of November 2024, those numbers are 2.7% for all-items and 3.3% for core. That indicates progress. But the troubling thing — and what is clearly worrying the Fed — is that both inflation measures have been rising in recent months.

At its most recent meeting, Fed officials raised their 2025 inflation predictions for the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) to 2.5% for both all-items (up from the previous estimate of 2.1%) and core (up from 2.2%). And at the same time, it cut interest rates.

PCE tends to track lower than headline CPI, as shown in this chart from the Cleveland Fed. So that means, probably, that official U.S. inflation will rise by a rate higher than 2.5% in 2025 based on the Fed predictions. In other words, we could be seeing 2.7% to 3.0% inflation for many months to come.

In addition, you can add in the potential for higher inflation from Trump administration policy decisions on tariffs and deportations.

Again, the theme is uncertainty.

Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities

The past year was a stellar time for building a ladder of TIPS investments across the full maturity spectrum. Several times over the year, including this week, real yields were close to or above 2.0% across 5-, 10- and 30-year maturities. That offered a unique opportunity to build a ladder quickly and be done. I wrote about this last month.

Even investors in TIPS mutual funds and ETFs did relatively well in 2024, despite the upswing in real yields in recent weeks. The TIP ETF — with the full range of maturities — had a year-to-date total return of 1.48%. The short-term-focused VTIP ETF did better at 4.56%.

Here is a look at the 12 TIPS auctions through the year:

I have highlighted highs and lows for the year, but in my opinion every one of these auctions had a decent result for investors. Outside of the auctions, there were many mid-year and late-year opportunities to purchase TIPS on the secondary market with real yields close to or higher than 2.0%, a historically attractive target if held to maturity.

I would judge 2024 to be an excellent year for TIPS investing, based on the opportunities to snag attractive yields. But note: Real yields could rise higher, especially if inflation continues increasing and U.S. borrowing continues at very high levels. I wrote about this a week ago.

Bloomberg this morning has a detailed article focused on growing pressures in the U.S. Treasury market as the debt level swells. It explains that the primary dealer system may no longer be fully capable of dealing with bond-market disruptions.

“Issuance has gone up almost threefold in the last 10 years and the anticipation is for it to close to double to $50 trillion outstanding in the next 10 years, whereas dealer balance sheets haven’t grown at that magnitude,” said Casey Spezzano, head of US customer sales and trading at primary markets dealer NatWest Markets. … “You’re trying to put more Treasuries through the same pipes, but those pipes aren’t getting any bigger.”

U.S. Series I Savings Bonds

These inflation-protected savings bonds started the year with a fixed rate of 1.3% and a six-month composite rate of 4.28%. Today, the fixed rate for new purchases has fallen just a bit, to 1.2%, but the composite rate is sharply lower at 3.11%.

I am still a fan of and strong advocate for these Nov 2024 – Apr 2025 I Bonds, a unique, super-simple, super-safe investment that will provide tax-deferred returns exceeding inflation for as long as you hold them. My advice is to ignore the composite rate and focus on the 1.2% fixed rate, which is attractive. If inflation continues running at high levels through 2025 and beyond, these savings bonds provide protection in the form of a cash-equivalent savings account that is adjusted for inflation.

However, because the 5-year TIPS is sensitive to changes in short-term rates, I’d say the 5-year real yield will probably be heading lower.

Next year, changes may be coming to the savings bond program, especially to the much-used “gift-box” loophole for adding to your holdings with a trusted partner. But at this point, we know nothing. The Treasury in the last year has halted issuance of paper I Bonds in lieu of a federal tax refund, and also ended its Payroll Savings Plan for automatic contributions into TreasuryDirect.

This will be something to watch in the coming weeks.

In summary

Uncertainty seems to be my word of the day, maybe for the entire year 2025. And I believe uncertainty causes market disruptions. Things could keep humming along, but it’s probably time for a reality check for over-heated stock and alternative-investment markets.

To quote a famous American: “Be there, will be wild!”

Conservative investors will survive.

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Follow Tipswatch on X (Twitter) for updates on daily Treasury auctions and real yield trends (when I am not traveling).

Posted in Federal Reserve, I Bond, Inflation, Investing in TIPS, Savings Bond, Treasury Bills, TreasuryDirect | Tagged economy, finance, inflation, interest-rates, investing, personal-finance | 33 Comments

Could the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6% in 2025?

Posted on December 22, 2024 by Tipswatch

It is a possibility, says a T.Rowe Price analyst. We haven’t seen that level in 25 years.

By David Enna, Tipswatch.com

The chief investment officer at T.Rowe Price is making a bold prediction: Yields on the 10-year Treasury note could reach 6% in 2025.

“Is a 6% 10‑year Treasury yield possible? Why not? But we can consider that when we move through 5%,” Arif Husain wrote in a T.Rowe Price report. He is predicting the benchmark yield may reach 5% in 2025 before climbing higher. He writes:

I continue to expect higher intermediate‑ and long‑term Treasury yields, steepening the curve as Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts anchor short‑term yields.

Husain says the U.S. economy is now in a “calm before the storm.” Here are some of his key takeaways:

Increases in U.S. government spending and potential tax cuts, combined with a healthy economy, are likely to push Treasury yields higher.
Decreasing foreign demand for U.S. Treasurys could further elevate yields.
The incoming U.S. administration creates uncertainty. Policies on tariffs and immigration are potentially inflationary.

Husain sees little chance for a U.S. recession in 2025, which could help ease interest rates. His prediction came just before a too-hot CPI inflation report issued Dec. 11 was followed a week later by hawkish Federal Reserve signals, which sent Treasury yields surging higher.

The 10-year Treasury yield has increased 33 basis points in the month of December. It is a key data point across the U.S. economy, influencing everything from corporate debt to mortgages, even car loans.

Reaction

I agree that yields on the 10-year Treasury note could climb above 5% in coming months. That’s possible, but not a sure thing. We are heading into a time of economic uncertainty as President-elect Trump unveils new policies. Last week’s debt-crisis-gambit was not a good start.

The 10-year Treasury yield closed Friday at 4.52%, but the high for 2024 was 4.70% set on April 25. I’d say 5% would be within reach in the aftermath of any market-disturbing event, even if the Federal Reserve cautiously lowers short-term interest rates in 2025.

“Longer‑term Treasury yields should be increasing, steepening the yield curve,” Husain writes.

What would a 5% 10-year mean for TIPS? If 10-year inflation expectations hold around 2.4% (not desirable) you’d probably see the real yield on a 10-year TIPS rising to 2.6%, or higher, from the current 2.23%.

6% is a lofty target

Let’s look back at the last time the U.S. had a 10-year Treasury note yielding at or above 6%. That was January 2000, another time of market turmoil: A dot-com bubble about to burst, plus mania over the year 2000 crashing computers worldwide, resulting in massive corporate spending to avoid the problem.

Interesting fact: On January 12, 2000, a 10-year TIPS was auctioned with a real yield to maturity of 4.338% and a coupon rate of 4.250%, which probably ranks as the “greatest” 10-year TIPS auction of all time. The inflation breakeven rate was 2.38%, very close to a typical rate today.

At that point, in 2000, TIPS were a very new investment product, with just a three-year history. But it does show that the 6.7% nominal rate of early 2000 was not a reaction to high inflation.

Some facts about that time, 25 years ago:

U.S. Gross National Product grew at a real rate of 4.79% in 1999, the highest rate for any year since then until the pandemic bounce-back in 2021 at 5.80%. In 2024, GDP is growing at a rate of about 3.1%.
U.S. inflation increased 2.7% in 1999, which matches the current U.S. rate as of November 2024. In the year 2000, it surged to 3.4%.
The U.S. unemployment rate at the end of 1999 was 4.2%, which again matches the rate of 4.2% for November 2024.
The federal funds rate was 5.5% in January 2000, with another 100 basis points in increases coming by May 2000. Today, that rate is effectively 4.3%.
The U.S. budget deficit in 1999 was … actually, it was a surplus of $126 billion. Hard to believe, isn’t it? For 2024, the U.S. budget deficit is running at about $1.8 trillion.

Looking at these factors, except for the strong GDP growth of 1999 and higher short-term interest rates, you could almost assume longer-term interest rates should be higher in 2025 than in early 2000. Inflation rates and unemployment rates are quite similar. But the size of the U.S. budget deficit heading into 2025 is massively higher.

Getting the federal deficit under control should not be a Democratic vs. Republican issue, or liberal vs. conservative. It has to be done, either through spending cuts or tax increases or a combination of the two. It will take a brave politician to advocate for either. Husain writes:

With the Trump administration promising to cut taxes, there is little chance that the deficit will meaningfully decrease. The Treasury Department will need to continue to flood the market with new debt issuance to fund the budget deficit, pressuring yields higher.

I think a yield of 6% still looks unlikely in 2025, but if nominal Treasury yields surge above 6%, the nation’s problems will only get worse.

Click here for a .pdf version of Husain’s report.

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Follow Tipswatch on X (Twitter) for updates on daily Treasury auctions and real yield trends (when I am not traveling).

Posted in Federal Reserve, Inflation, Investing in TIPS, Treasury Bills | Tagged economy, finance, interest-rates, personal-finance, Treasury investments | 32 Comments

Weak demand results in real yield of 2.121% for 5-year TIPS reopening auction

Posted on December 19, 2024 by Tipswatch

By David Enna, Tipswatch.com

The U.S. stock and bond markets were sent into turmoil Wednesday by confusing messaging from the Federal Reserve on future inflation and interest rates. As a result, the stock market plummeted and Treasury yields surged higher.

While that turmoil has lessened today, it had a strong effect on the Treasury’s auction of $22 billion in a reopened 5-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Security, CUSIP 91282CLV1. Before the Fed action on Thursday, this TIPS was trading on the secondary market with a real yield to maturity of about 1.85%. In the aftermath Wednesday afternoon, the yield surged to about 2.02%.

And then … today’s auction resulted in a real yield of 2.121%, about 7 basis points higher than the “when-issued” prediction of 2.05% set just before the auction’s close. The bid-to-cover ratio was 2.1, by far the lowest for any 4- or 5-year auction since I began tracking this number in 2019. (The lowest previously was 2.36 in October 2023.)

In other words, demand for this TIPS was extremely weak. But for investors, the result was excellent: a real yield to maturity of 2.121% and a price below par value.

Definition: The “real yield” of a TIPS is its yield above or below official future U.S. inflation, over the term of the TIPS. So a real yield of 2.121% means an investment in this TIPS would provide a return that exceeds U.S. inflation by 2.121% for 4 years, 10 months.

Here is the trend in the 5-year real yield over the last four years, ending on Tuesday, a day before the surge higher:

Pricing

CUSIP 91282CLV1’s coupon rate of 1.625% was set by the originating auction on Oct. 24, which resulted in a real yield of just 1.670%, a remarkable 45 basis points lower than today’s result. Today’s auction got an unadjusted price of 97.750475. It also will carry an inflation index of 1.00317 on the settlement date of Dec. 31. With that information, we can calculate the cost of $10,000 par value at this auction:

Par value: $10,000.
Actual principal purchased: $10,000 x 1.00317 = $10,031.70
Cost of investment: $10,031.70 x 0.97750475 = $9,806.04
+ Accrued interest of $34.48.

In summary, at investment of $10,000 par at this auction cost $9,806.04 for $10,031.70 principal on the settlement date of Dec. 31. After that, the investor will receive inflation accruals plus an annual coupon rate of 1.625% until maturity.

Inflation breakeven rate

With a 5-year nominal Treasury note yielding 4.44% at the auction’s close, this TIPS gets an inflation breakeven rate of 2.32%, a bit lower than looked likely last week. This means it will outperform the 5-year T-note if inflation averages more than 2.32% over the next 4 years, 10 months.

Here is the trend in the 5-year inflation breakeven rate over the last four years:

Reaction to the auction

The fact that demand was so weak is a stunner. It could be that investors were reacting to the Fed’s apparently renewed commitment to fighting inflation. The dip in the inflation breakeven rate backs that up. It could also be that nominal Treasurys are looking more attractive by comparison with yields in the 4.40% range.

This is from MarketWatch’s coverage posted after the auction close:

Thursday afternoon’s $22 billion sale of 5-year Treasury inflation-protected securities came in “very weak” with a tail of 6.7 basis points, according to BMO Capital Markets strategist Vail Hartman.

And here is a bit more blunt reaction from Bloomberg’s Cameron Crise, picked up from a tweet:

Buyers at this auction should be pleased. This is one where the auction ended up producing a better result than buying on the secondary market. The weak demand seems obviously related to uncertainty about future inflation and a potential hold in short-term interest rates.

And then, on top of all that, Congress is now struggling to avoid a government shutdown. Fun times, huh?

This was the last TIPS auction of 2024. The next auction will Jan. 23, 2025, with the unveiling of a new 10-year TIPS to mature in 2035. I plan to be a buyer of that one.

• Now is an ideal time to build a TIPS ladder

• Confused by TIPS? Read my Q&A on TIPS

• TIPS in depth: Understand the language

• TIPS on the secondary market: Things to consider

• TIPS investor: Don’t over-think the threat of deflation

• Upcoming schedule of TIPS auctions

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Follow Tipswatch on X (Twitter) for updates on daily Treasury auctions and real yield trends (when I am not traveling).

Posted in Federal Reserve, Inflation, Investing in TIPS | Tagged bonds, inflation, investing, personal-finance | 18 Comments

Rise in real yields (once again) makes 5-year TIPS auction look attractive

Posted on December 15, 2024 by Tipswatch

By David Enna, Tipswatch.com

Update, Thursday 1:35 p.m. ET: Weak demand results in real yield of 2.121% for 5-year TIPS reopening auction

Update, Wednesday 5:17 pm ET: The Federal Reserve’s mixed messaging on inflation (expected to be a bit higher next year) and interest rates (going ahead with some cuts, but fewer) caused a strong market reaction, sending both real and nominal yields higher. This TIPS, CUSIP 91282CLV1, closed Wednesday with a real yield of 2.03%.

This could be a temporary move and could revert lower in the morning. No way to know.

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Just a week ago, I posted an article theorizing that real yields for Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities were beginning to crest, especially for shorter-term issues.

Note to readers: Sometimes I am wrong, especially when trying to pinpoint trends in real yields. In the last week, spurred by a too-high U.S. inflation report and fears of future rate “holds” from the Federal Reserve, both nominal and real yields have jumped higher.

This was even more true for nominal Treasurys. The yield on a 10-year Treasury note jumped from 4.19% on December 4 to 4.40% at the close Friday, an increase of 21 basis points.

All of this is leading up to Thursday’s reopening auction of CUSIP 91282CLV1, creating a 4-year, 10-month TIPS. Its coupon rate was set at 1.625% by the originating auction on October 24 and it closed Friday on the secondary market with a real yield of 1.83% and a price of 99.04.

Definition: The “real yield” of a TIPS is its yield above or below official future U.S. inflation, over the term of the TIPS. So a real yield of 1.83% means an investment in this TIPS would provide a return that exceeds U.S. inflation by 1.83% for 4 years, 10 months.

One semi-interesting fact about this auction: The Treasury set the size at $22 billion, which is the largest in history for a 5-year reopening. Last December, the auction size was $20 billion. Could these growing auction sizes eventually hold down demand? (Probably not, at this point.)

Here is the trend in the 5-year real yield over the last 14 years, showing that while yields have fallen off highs of October 2023, they remain attractive by the standards of the last decade-plus:

Pricing

If real yields hold at these higher levels, this TIPS reopening should get a price discount of about 1% to accrued principal. It will carry an inflation index of 1.00317 on the settlement date of December 31. All of this means it should end up auctioning at a price very close to, or below, par value.

Here is a look at a potential $10,000 par-value investment, based on Friday’s market close:

Par value: $10,000
Actual principal purchased: $10,000 x 1.00317 = $10,031.70
Cost of investment: $10,031.70 x 0.9904 = $9,935.40
+ Accrued interest: About $34.45

In this scenario, which will change before the auction’s close, an investor would pay $9,935.40 for $10,031.70 of principal and then get inflation accruals for 4 years, 10 months, plus annual coupon payments of 1.625%, distributed in April and October. The cost of the accrued interest will be returned at the first semi-annual coupon payment on April 15.

There is no particular reason for an investor to wait for the Thursday auction to purchase CUSIP 91282CLV1. It could be purchased any time on the secondary market. The auction result could end up better, or worse, but the yield will be uncertain until the auction close. On the secondary market, you can buy when you find the yield attractive.

Inflation breakeven rate

With the 5-year nominal Treasury note closing Friday at 4.25% (pretty attractive, in my opinion) this TIPS currently has a rather-high inflation breakeven rate of 2.42%. However, annual inflation over the last 5 years has averaged 4.2% and over 10 years, 2.9%. So 2.42% doesn’t look unreasonable, and reflects market fears that U.S. inflation is proving to be “sticky” in this range of 2.5% or higher.

Here is the trend in the 5-year inflation breakeven rate over the last 14 years, showing that inflation expectations have fallen off in the last two years, but remain relatively high by historical standards:

I’ll remind you that the inflation breakeven rate is not a predictor of future inflation. It simply measures market sentiment by comparing nominal and real yields. However, if inflation did remain at 2.42% or higher over the next five years, I think we could expect a continued diet of relatively high Treasury yields. The Fed should not be easing if inflation remains elevated.

Thoughts

I won’t be a buyer this week because the 2029 rung of my TIPS ladder is fully loaded. But I think CUSIP 91282CLV1 looks like an attractive purchase if its real yield holds around 1.80%.

I hear from a lot of readers holding out to purchase TIPS with real yields higher than 2.0%, a number I often call “historically attractive.” Patience may pay off … or it won’t. Real yields are notoriously finicky. A real yield of 1.83% on a 5-year TIPS is attractive, and the maturity date is only 4 years, 10 months away.

On the other hand, if you want to balance off TIPS and I Bonds with some shorter-term nominal investments, a nominal yield of 4.25% on a 5-year Treasury note also looks attractive. I tend to prefer TIPS for terms of two years or longer, however, for the inflation protection over the longer term.

This TIPS auction closes Thursday at 1 p.m. EST. Non-competitive bids at TreasuryDirect must be placed by noon Thursday. If you are putting an order in through a brokerage, make sure to place your order Wednesday or very early Thursday, because brokers cut off auction orders before the noon deadline.

I will be posting the auction results soon after the close on Thursday. Here is a history of auction results for this term over the last 5 years: