Monthly Archives: December 2018

Summary Both real and nominal yields climbed sharply in 2018, especially for shorter terms. The yield curve has dramatically flattened, possibly pointing to an economic slowdown. TIPS auctions were a mixed bag in 2018: the 30-year auctions were unattractive, the … Continue reading →

Summary You have to go back to April 2009 to find a 4- to 5-year TIPS auction with a higher real yield. The inflation breakeven rate came in at 1.51%, very low by recent trends and a favorable indicator for … Continue reading →

Summary The real yield could be about 1.12%, the highest after-inflation yield in nearly 10 years of 4- to 5-year TIPS auctions. The real yield curve has inverted, with the 5-year TIPS now yielding about 6 basis points more than … Continue reading →

Summary Headline inflation came in at 0.0% in November and was up 2.2% year-over-year. Core inflation was up 0.2% for the month and 2.2% for the year. Non-seasonally adjusted inflation actually fell 0.33% in November, which means investors in TIPS … Continue reading →