Oct. 31 update: Treasury sets I Bond’s fixed rate at 1.20%, composite rate falls to 3.11%
By David Enna, Tipswatch.com
By Thursday (or possibly Friday) we are going to get a lot of new information about U.S. Series I Savings Bonds: a new variable rate, new fixed rate, new composite rate and potentially new rules for gift-box purchases and — if we are fortunate — an increase in the annual purchase limit.
Technically, these changes will take effect Friday, November 1, but the Treasury has lately announced the new rates the day before, since purchases on that last day — October 31 — will be getting the new November rates. But with TreasuryDirect everything is mysterious, so we get this notice on its main page:
That notice seems to imply you could make an I Bond purchase on Thursday and still get the current 4.28% composite rate. However, when you place an order on TreasuryDirect, it completes on the next business day. So if you purchase I Bonds on October 31, you will “complete your purchase” on November 1, and you will get the new November rate. Do not wait until Thursday if you are making an I Bond purchase and want the current 4.28% composite rate.
Update, Monday 10:05 p.m.: TreasuryDirect updated its homepage notice to reflect that the actual deadline for making an October-registered I Bond purchase is Wednesday, Oct. 30:
New variable rate
Certainty factor: 100%
This one is already set: The I Bond’s new inflation-adjusted variable rate will be 1.90%, down from the current 2.96%, for purchases beginning November 1. It will roll into effect for all I Bonds eventually, depending on the month of purchase.
The variable rate was set by the increase in non-seasonally adjusted inflation for the months of April to September 2024. The increase was 0.95%, which is doubled to determine the six-month, annualized variable rate of 1.90%.

New fixed rate
Certainty factor: 80%
The Treasury does not reveal how it sets the I Bond’s fixed rate, but in recent years I have found a reliable predictor: Take the six-month average of the 5-year TIPS yield and apply a ratio of 0.65. In recent years, this has been an accurate predictor.
The fixed rate is always rounded to the 1/10th decimal point. In recent weeks the formula been pointing to a new fixed rate of 1.20%, and I confirmed that with data through Friday’s market close:
In the chart, I have included the 10-year real yield as a check. It also predicts a fixed rate of 1.20%. This is not a certainty, but a hopefully an accurate forecast.
New composite rate
Certainty factor: 80%
The new variable rate will be 1.90%, and if the fixed rate is set at 1.20%, the I Bond’s new composite rate for purchases from November 2024 to April 2025 will be 3.11%, down from the current 4.28%. For I Bonds with the 1.3% fixed rate, the new composite rate will be 3.21%.
While these rates look low compared to current 4-week Treasury yields (4.89%), keep in mind that the permanent fixed rate is much more important than the variable rate or six-month composite rate. A fixed rate of 1.2% or 1.3% means you will get a yield higher than inflation, with total safety, for potentially 30 years.
Plus, as the Fed continues is rate-cutting path, short-term T-bill yields should be falling through much of 2025. I Bonds are best used as a medium- to long-term cash-equivalent investment.
Gift-box purchases
Certainty factor: 50%
As I noted in an article last week, TreasuryDirect is sending emails to its customers with I Bonds stored in gift boxes to deliver those gifts “as soon as possible.” You can read more about that here: “Deciphering TreasuryDirect’s mysterious gift-box email“.
Nothing is certain because the Treasury isn’t giving us full information. But it does appear it wants gift-box purchases to be delivered quickly, either this year or early next year, even if those deliveries would exceed the recipient’s annual purchase limit of $10,000. And that is exactly what many people have been doing (including me), without any problem. See this Bogleheads thread for more discussion.
So it looks like changes are coming to the gift-box program. It may be eliminated entirely for new purchases, either as of November 1 or January 1. Or it may be scaled back to its original purpose, to grant small gifts to grandchildren, for example. Or … nothing will happen and we can shake our heads.
I hope we learn more on Thursday or Friday.
Increase in the purchase cap
Certainty factor: 35%
Several callers to TreasuryDirect have gotten feedback that “changes are coming” to the savings bond program. Plus, recall that the $5,000 paper I Bond option in lieu of the federal tax refund is being eliminated as of January 1.
Here is what I suspect (or maybe it is just my wishful thinking): The Treasury will scale back or eliminate the gift-box program, while at the same time raising the savings bond annual purchase limit to $20,000 or even $30,000.
High use of the gift-box program should have sent a strong signal to the Treasury that the $10,000 purchase limit is too low to meet the demand of even small-scale investors.
When I Bonds were first created in the fall of 1998, the purchase limit was $30,000 per person per year. However, ten years later, the Treasury determined about 98% of all savings bonds were purchased in amounts under $5,000. This triggered a new policy in 2008: a $5,000 limit per calendar year.
The current limit of $10,000 per person went into effect in January 2012. If that $10,000 limit had been adjusted for inflation since 2012, it would be about $13,700 today.
Clearly, it is time to raise the purchase limit. Will it happen? Maybe, maybe not. But I hope we find out on Friday.
• Confused by I Bonds? Read my Q&A on I Bonds
• Let’s ‘try’ to clarify how an I Bond’s interest is calculated
• Inflation and I Bonds: Track the variable rate changes
• I Bonds: Here’s a simple way to track current value
• I Bond Manifesto: How this investment can work as an emergency fund
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David Enna is a financial journalist, not a financial adviser. He is not selling or profiting from any investment discussed. I Bonds and TIPS are not “get rich” investments; they are best used for capital preservation and inflation protection. They can be purchased through the Treasury or other providers without fees, commissions or carrying charges. Please do your own research before investing.














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