Real yields are holding up, but the curve is widening.
By David Enna, Tipswatch.com
The October auction of a new 5-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Security is always a baffler. The auctioned real yield is highly likely to be lower than many investors expect. Plus, this 5-year maturity is sensitive to potential near-term actions by the Federal Reserve.
Thursday, the Treasury will offer at auction $24 billion of CUSIP 91282CLV1, a TIPS that will mature on Oct. 15, 2029. Some facts:
- $24 billion is the largest auction size in history for this term. A year ago, in October 2023, the auction size was $22 billion.
- The coupon rate and real yield to maturity will be set by the auction’s result.
- As of Friday’s market close, the Treasury’s estimate of the real yield to maturity of a full-term 5-year TIPS was 1.65%, up 21 basis points since Oct. 1.
The October ‘surprise’
Why is the auctioned real yield of this TIPS likely to be lower than expected? It’s complicated, but real yield expectations are often based on the secondary-market trading of the most recent TIPS of that term. The most recent TIPS of this term is CUSIP 91282CKL4, auctioned on April 18, 2024.
That April auction got a spectacular result, with a real yield to maturity of 2.242%. Since then, real yields have been slipping lower. On the secondary market, the April TIPS is currently trading with a real yield of 1.64%. But the key factor is that any April TIPS tends to have a higher-than-market real yield, because it will be exposed to weak non-seasonally adjusted inflation data in its final months to maturity. By comparison, the October TIPS will get a slightly lower-than-market yield.
For example, in October 2023, the auction of a new 5-year TIPS was expected by many investors (including me) to get a real yield of about 2.57%, but instead auctioned at 2.44%. That sent me hunting for an explanation, and I found it. Read this: “There is an explanation for everything, right?”
Data back this up, as you can see in this chart of secondary-market TIPS yields, with the October yields consistently lower than April yields. The effect is magnified as the TIPS gets closer to maturity:
So … when looking at this new 5-year TIPS, understand that the real yield to maturity is likely to come in lower than the Treasury estimate, which is currently 1.65%, or the secondary market trading at 1.64%. Things will change by Thursday, of course.
The yield trend
Real yields (meaning the yield above inflation) have declined mightily since the fall of 2023, but remain in an attractive range. What has been interesting is that the yield curve is widening, and actually beginning to look “normal,” with longer-term TIPS having higher yields than shorter-term TIPS.

This is a predictable result of the Federal Reserve’s path toward lower short-term interest rates. The Fed controls short-term rates, but generally can’t control longer-term rates, unless it relaunches quantitative easing (which it shouldn’t). Of the standard maturities, the 5-year TIPS is most sensitive to Fed actions.
So today the baseline 5-year real yield is hovering around 1.65%, down a whopping 94 basis points since the 2023 high of 2.59% set on October 3. In my view, 1.65% remains historically attractive, as shown in this chart of 5-year real yields over the last 14 1/2 years:

No one can say where real yields are heading, but getting a return 1.65% above inflation seems attractive enough, while not spectacular.
Inflation breakeven rate
At Friday’s close, a 5-year nominal Treasury note was yielding 3.88%, which at this point indicates an inflation breakeven rate of 2.23% for this new TIPS. That is more or less in line with recent trends. U.S. inflation over the last 5 years has run at 4.2%, but seems unlikely to reach that level over the next 5 years. Or …. maybe it will?
Do you think inflation will run higher than 2.23% over the next 5 years? If so, this TIPS is a sensible investment versus the nominal 5-year Treasury. Here is the trend in the 5-year inflation breakeven rate over the last 14 1/2 years, showing that 2.2% is on the slightly high side of normal:

Pricing
This is a new TIPS, so investors should be paying very close to par value, or slightly less. CUSIP 91282CLV1 will have an inflation index of 1.00042 on the settlement date of October 31, which means an investor buying $10,000 par will be getting $4.20 additional principal. That is negligible.
Thoughts
This auction looks attractive enough, but I have no need to add to the 2029 rung of my TIPS ladder. So I will be passing. Investors could also look at the U.S. Series I Savings Bond, with a real yield of 1.3% for purchases this month. Because of the simplicity and safety of I Bonds, I’d say these two investments are equally attractive. But the $10,000 purchase cap on I Bonds limits their usefulness for many investors.
If you are investing, you can track the Treasury yield estimate each day on this page, and see the yield of the most-recent April TIPS in real time on the Bloomberg U.S. Yields page. But just keep in mind that the result at Thursday’s auction could be 5 to 10 or more basis points lower than what you are seeing on those pages.
This TIPS auction closes Thursday at 1 p.m. EDT. Non-competitive bids at TreasuryDirect must be placed by noon Thursday. If you are putting an order in through a brokerage, make sure to place your order Wednesday or very early Thursday, because brokers cut off auction orders before the noon deadline.
I will be posting the auction results soon after the close on Thursday. Here is a history of auction results for this term over the last 5 years:
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• Now is an ideal time to build a TIPS ladder
• Confused by TIPS? Read my Q&A on TIPS
• TIPS in depth: Understand the language
• TIPS on the secondary market: Things to consider
• TIPS investor: Don’t over-think the threat of deflation
• Upcoming schedule of TIPS auctions
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Follow Tipswatch on X (Twitter) for updates on daily Treasury auctions and real yield trends (when I am not traveling).
Feel free to post comments or questions below. If it is your first-ever comment, it will have to wait for moderation. After that, your comments will automatically appear. Please stay on topic and avoid political tirades. NOTE: Comment threads can only be three responses deep. If you see that you cannot respond, create a new comment and reference the topic.
David Enna is a financial journalist, not a financial adviser. He is not selling or profiting from any investment discussed. I Bonds and TIPS are not “get rich” investments; they are best used for capital preservation and inflation protection. They can be purchased through the Treasury or other providers without fees, commissions or carrying charges. Please do your own research before investing.












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