Today’s reopening auction of CUSIP 91282CHP9 — creating a 9-year, 10-month Treasury Inflation-Protected Security — generated a real yield to maturity of 2.094%, the highest for any auction of this term since January 2009.
Investors at this auction should be pleased with the result. This TIPS trades on the secondary market, and for most of the morning it was trading with a real yield of 2.07% to 2.09%, so the auction came in right on target. The real yield to maturity of 2.094% was about 60 basis points higher than the yield investors got at the originating auction, just 2 months ago.
The bid-to-cover ratio was 2.44, which indicates fair, but not spectacular, demand from investors.
Definition: A TIPS is an investment that pays a coupon rate well below that of other Treasury investments of the same term. But with a TIPS, the principal balance adjusts each month (usually up, but sometimes down) to match the current U.S. inflation rate. So, the “real yield to maturity” of a TIPS indicates how much an investor will earn above inflation each year until maturity.
In essence, this TIPS will outperform U.S. inflation by 2.094% over the next 9 years, 10 months.
Pricing
The originating auction for CUSIP 91282CHP9 set its coupon rate at 1.375%. That means investors at today’s auction got the TIPS at a substantial discount because the auctioned real yield was so much higher.
Here is a rundown of costs for a $10,000 investment:
Coupon rate: 1.375%
Auction’s high yield: 2.094%
Inflation index on Sept 29 settlement date: 1.00640
Par value: $10,000
Principal on settlement date: $10,064
Cost of investment: $9,426.07 (based on unadjusted price of 0.93661317)
Plus accrued interest: $28.58
Total cost: $9,454.65
In summary, an investor paid $9,426.07 for $10,064 in principal and will now receive accruals matching U.S. inflation plus a coupon rate of 1.375% for the next 9-years, 10 months. The accrued interest will be repaid at the first coupon payment.
Inflation breakeven rate
At the auction’s close, a nominal 10-year Treasury note was trading at 4.47%, setting up an inflation breakeven rate of 2.38%, exactly the same as the originating auction’s breakeven rate. Seems reasonable. Here is the trend in the 10-year inflation breakeven rate over the last 5+ years:
Final thoughts
I am traveling in northern Greece at the moment and I haven’t been able to watch financial markets carefully. This looks like a good result for investors. Getting a real yield to maturity of 2.0%+ for 10 years is highly desirable. Will real yields continue climbing higher? That definitely could happen, but today’s result looks like a solid investment.
Here is a history of auctions of this term over the last 5+ years. Today’s result was by far the most attractive in more than a decade of auctions of this term:
Feel free to post comments or questions below. If it is your first-ever comment, it will have to wait for moderation. After that, your comments will automatically appear. Please stay on topic and avoid political tirades.
David Enna is a financial journalist, not a financial adviser. He is not selling or profiting from any investment discussed. I Bonds and TIPS are not “get rich” investments; they are best used for capital preservation and inflation protection. They can be purchased through the Treasury or other providers without fees, commissions or carrying charges. Please do your own research before investing.
By the time you read this, I will be arriving in Thessaloniki, Greece, to begin a 3-week jaunt across northern Greece, Albania, and North Macedonia. This is the land of Zeus and Alexander the Great, but also probably the land of lousy internet, at times. We’ll be in some remote places.
So over the next couple weeks, I will be slow to provide updates, approve comments, answer questions, and track trends. I will try when I have time and internet. These weeks shouldn’t be particularly newsy but you never know.
What’s coming up?
Wednesday, Sept. 20: At about 2:05 p.m. ET the Federal Reserve will announce the interest-rate decision of its Open Market Committee. I am expecting interest rates to hold steady and then we will hear Jay Powell say some fairly hawkish things in his press conference. “Future rate increases are still possible.”
It’s possible the Federal Reserve has hit its peak short-term interest rate in the range of 5.25% to 5.50%. The short-term T-bill market has been stable for several weeks, which seems to indicate investors think rates will hold at these levels, possibly for many months.
I won’t be writing about this announcement, but you’ll have hundreds of other sources and opinions to read shortly after 2 p.m.
Thursday, Sept. 21: At 1 p.m. Thursday ET (or 8 p.m. in Greece) the Treasury will announce the result of its 10-year TIPS reopening auction. I have posted a preview of the auction, so read that to learn more. Sometime after the auction, I hope to post an abbreviated article on the results.
FYI, CUSIP 91282CHP9 was trading on the secondary market Monday morning with a real yield of 1.98%, so it was still looking attractive, either as a purchase at auction or on the secondary market this week.
Tuesday, Sept. 26: The Treasury will auction a 2-year Treasury note. The key here will be if the high yield ends up above 5%, which is within 50 basis points of much shorter-term T-bills. This would indicate the market believes interest rates will hold at high levels well into 2024.
There are some good nominal yields out there. In Charlotte, a local credit union is offering an 11-month CD with an annual yield of 6.25%, minimum deposit of $5,000.
Huge news coming in October
As Arnold Schwarzenegger famously said, “I’ll be back.”
I’ll be home in time for the September inflation report, which will be issued at 8:30 a.m. Oct. 12. This is the most important inflation report of the year, because it will:
Set a path for future Federal Reserve interest rate decisions.
* * *
Feel free to post comments or questions below. If it is your first-ever comment, it will have to wait for moderation. After that, your comments will automatically appear. Please stay on topic and avoid political tirades.
David Enna is a financial journalist, not a financial adviser. He is not selling or profiting from any investment discussed. I Bonds and TIPS are not “get rich” investments; they are best used for capital preservation and inflation protection. They can be purchased through the Treasury or other providers without fees, commissions or carrying charges. Please do your own research before investing.
This year, for the first time, I’ve soured on buying Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities at auction. Why? Because real yields have often come in a bit below “predicted” market value. That’s been especially true of the 10-year maturity:
Jan. 19, 2023: A new 10-year TIPS – CUSIP 91282CGK1 — auctioned with a real yield to maturity of 1.22%, below the when-issued prediction of 1.26%. The coupon rate was set at 1.125%.
March 29, 2023: That same TIPS reopened with a real yield of 1.182%. This auction was a winner, because premarket trading had it at 1.15%.
May 18, 2023: The same TIPS reopened at 1.395%, below the premarket trading of 1.41%.
July 20, 2023: A new TIPS — CUSIP 91282CHP9 — got a real yield of 1.495%, well below the when-issued prediction of 1.546%. The coupon rate was set at 1.375%.
For me, that last auction on July 20 was especially disappointing. (I was hoping for a coupon rate of 1.50% and just missed.) Now CUSIP 91282CHP9 will get its first reopening auction on Thursday. The results are likely to be much more attractive.
At Friday’s close, this TIPS was trading on the secondary market with a real yield to maturity of 1.98% — an increase of nearly 50 basis points in two months. And it is carrying a discounted price of 94.62. If that real yield holds, this auction will result in the highest 10-year auctioned real yield in more than 14 years.
But I won’t be a buyer, because I have filled the 2033 maturity on my TIPS ladder (with real yields of 1.22%, 1.40%, 1.495% and 1.964%). I’m done with 2033. My next purchase will be the 2034 TIPS to be auctioned Jan. 18.
If you are still working on 2033, this TIPS deserves a long look, either at auction or on the secondary market. You can check the current yield and price for this TIPS on the Bloomberg’s Current Yields page. Any real yield above 2.0% deserves consideration.
Definition: A TIPS is an investment that pays a coupon rate well below that of other Treasury investments of the same term. But with a TIPS, the principal balance adjusts each month (usually up, but sometimes down) to match the current U.S. inflation rate. So, the “real yield to maturity” of a TIPS indicates how much an investor will earn above inflation each year until maturity.
Here is the trend in the 10-year real yield over the last 5+ years, a period that includes one dramatic period of Federal Reserve easing (March 2020 to March 2022), one mild period of Fed tightening (2018) and one aggressive period of tightening (April 2022 to today):
Click on image for larger version.
Pricing
CUSIP 91282CHP9 will mature July 15, 2033. It has a coupon rate of 1.375%, well below the current market real yield of 1.98%, so it is selling at a substantial discount with a price of 94.62. This TIPS will have an inflation index of 1.00640 on the settlement date of Sept. 29.
What does this all mean for the price investors will pay? Let’s take a look at a potential $10,000 investment.
Par value = $10,000
Adjusted principal = $10,064 (based on the inflation index)
Cost of investment = $9,523 (based on price of 0.9462)
Accrued interest = About $28.40 (will be returned at first coupon payment)
Total cost = $9,281
This is a rough estimate, of course, and is based on Friday’s closing value. Things can change before the auction closes at 1 p.m. EDT Thursday. You will find similar pricing on the secondary market, adjusted for a slight bid-ask spread and a slightly lower inflation index.
Inflation breakeven rate
With a nominal 10-year Treasury note currently yielding 4.33%, this TIPS has an inflation breakeven rate of 2.35%, close to the originating auction’s 2.38%. By historic standards, this is a high breakeven rate, but seems reasonable as the Federal Reserve struggles to move inflation to near 2.0%. For the last 10 years ending in August, U.S. inflation has averaged 2.8%.
Here is the trend in the 10-year inflation breakeven rate over the last 5+ years:
Click on image for larger version.
Note that inflation expectations have been gradually declining since last summer, when U.S. inflation peaked at 9.1%. The current rate is 3.7%, still well above the 10-year expectations.
Final thoughts
This is a strong offering, in my opinion. Over the last several weeks I have been pushing hard to fill out my TIPS ladder, which extends to 2043. My primary focus has been on getting real yields around 2.0% for the 2040 to 2043 period. I’d definitely be a re-buyer of CUSIP 91282CHP9 if my 2033 rung wasn’t full.
Can real yields continue higher? Definitely? Maybe? We don’t know. Getting real yields in the 2.0% range for extended maturities is attractive, so it’s a good time to act. It is a sensible purchase and shouldn’t be regretted.
Ponder this: As recently as March 2022, a 10-year nominal Treasury was yielding 1.74%. Now you can get 1.9% to 2.0% aboveinflation. The trend is good for TIPS investors.
What about secondary market versus auction? My advice is to watch the secondary market for yields you find attractive. That way you can know exactly what you are buying. The auction, however, is a good option for buyers of smaller lots because all investors get the high yield, without any spread.
If you are pondering an investment at Thursday’s auction, keep an eye on Bloomberg’s U.S. Yields page, which updates in real time. It is accurate, but any auction result can bring surprises. The auction closes at 1 pm EDT. Non-competitive bids at TreasuryDirect must be placed by noon Thursday. If you are putting an order in through a brokerage, make sure to place your order Wednesday or very early Thursday, because brokers cut off auction orders before the noon deadline.
By Thursday, I will be traveling in northern Greece so I can’t say for sure when I will be able to post the results.
Feel free to post comments or questions below. If it is your first-ever comment, it will have to wait for moderation. After that, your comments will automatically appear. Please stay on topic and avoid political tirades.
David Enna is a financial journalist, not a financial adviser. He is not selling or profiting from any investment discussed. I Bonds and TIPS are not “get rich” investments; they are best used for capital preservation and inflation protection. They can be purchased through the Treasury or other providers without fees, commissions or carrying charges. Please do your own research before investing.
As expected, rising gasoline prices pushed U.S. inflation higher in August, rising a seasonally-adjusted 0.6% for the month and increasing 3.7% year-over-year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
Core inflation, which removes food and energy, rose 0.3% for the month (higher than the expected 0.2%) but annual core came in at 4.3%, lower than the expected 4.4%. That most likely means core inflation was close to expectations, before rounding.
Nothing too shocking here, but the bump higher in annual all-items inflation from 3.2% in July to 3.7% in August is certainly an unwanted trend. Gas prices are felt immediately by the consumer, something the Fed and Biden administration can’t ignore.
The BLS noted that the rise in gasoline prices (up 10.6% for the month but still down 3.3% year over year) accounted for more than half the all-items increase in inflation. Shelter costs were the largest factor in core inflation, increasing 0.3% for the month and 7.3% for the year. Shelter costs have increased 40 consecutive months, the BLS said. Other items from the report:
Food at home prices rose a moderate 0.2% and are now up 3.0% year over year.
The index for dairy decreased 0.4%.
The energy index as a whole was up 5.6% for the month.
Apparel costs rose 0.2%.
The index for hospital services rose 0.7%.
Prescription drug costs rose 0.4%.
Costs of motor vehicle insurance rose 2.0%, the biggest one month jump since 1976.
Airline fares declined 8.1% but are still up 4.9% year over year.
August’s price increases came a year after inflation slowed dramatically in 2022, primarily triggered by a deep fall in gasoline prices. Now that trend is reversing. Here is the 12-month trend for all-items and core inflation, showing that core inflation continues to gradually fall while the trend has turned upward for all-items inflation:
What this means for TIPS and I Bonds
Investors in Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities and U.S. Series I Savings Bonds are also interested in non-seasonally adjusted inflation, which is used to adjust principal balances for TIPS and set future interest rates for I Bonds. For August, the BLS set the inflation index at 307.026, an increase of 0.44% over the July number.
For TIPS. The August inflation index means that principal balances for TIPS will increase 0.44% in October, after rising 0.19% in September. Here are the new October Inflation Indexes for all TIPS.
For I Bonds. The August inflation report is the 5th of a 6-month string that will set the I Bond’s new inflation-adjusted variable rate, which will be reset Nov. 1 for all I Bonds (the starting date depends on the original month of purchase). Inflation from April to August has increased 1.72%, which at this point would translate to a variable rate of 3.44%. But one month remains.
If non-seasonal inflation increases 0.2% in September, you’d get a variable rate of 3.84%, higher than the current 3.38%. Nothing is certain, of course.
The Social Security Administration uses a different inflation index — CPI-W — to determine the next year’s cost-of-living-adjustment. And it looks only at the average of three months of data, from July to September. For August, the BLS set the CPI-W index at 301.551, an increase of 3.4% over the last year.
For the COLA, the only 2022 number that matters is the three-month average from July to September 2022, which was 291.901. The average of the July and August CPI-W indexes was 3.0% higher. One month of data remain. I have been projecting an increase in the range of 3.0% to 3.2%, which could end up a bit too low.
The Federal Reserve has consistently signaled that it plans to hold short-term interest rates steady at its Sept. 19-20 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. While this August inflation report could deliver a psychological jolt to the U.S. consumer, the Fed will probably view it as “expected.”
However, core inflation of 4.3% is unacceptably high, so the Fed must continue its commitment to keeping rates at high levels, probably well into 2024. From today’s Bloomberg report:
The report complicates the picture for Fed policymakers, who meet later this month to set rate policy. While they’re likely to look through a temporary bump in energy prices, the shelter component is still running hot and gains across other categories could give them pause. The broader economic picture could also support another hike: The labor market, while showing cracks on the margin, remains tight.
Fed officials signaled last week they were preparing to hold interest rates steady at their meeting next week, and Wednesday’s inflation report isn’t likely to change that outcome. Whether it is enough to lead officials to raise interest rates again in November or December largely depends on whether inflation firms up in the coming months.
If gas prices continue to rise and eventually spread an inflationary effect to food and transportation costs, the American consumer will feel the pinch. And demands for higher wages would likely follow. That is something the Fed won’t be able to ignore.
* * *
Feel free to post comments or questions below. If it is your first-ever comment, it will have to wait for moderation. After that, your comments will automatically appear. Please stay on topic and avoid political tirades.
David Enna is a financial journalist, not a financial adviser. He is not selling or profiting from any investment discussed. I Bonds and TIPS are not “get rich” investments; they are best used for capital preservation and inflation protection. They can be purchased through the Treasury or other providers without fees, commissions or carrying charges. Please do your own research before investing.
I often caution readers about “non-seasonally adjusted inflation” and how it can create confusion and even distress as it sometimes skews away from headline inflation, the number you see reported each month.
Non-seasonally adjusted inflation is important for investors in Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (where it is used to adjust principal balances each month) and U.S. Series I Savings Bonds (where it is used to set future variable interest rates).
Each month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics includes a paragraph deep down in its CPI report (this one is for July inflation):
Not seasonally adjusted CPI measures
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 3.2 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 305.691 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index increased 0.2 percent prior to seasonal adjustment.
Once the inflation report is issued, I plug that number into the mega-chart on my Inflation and I Bonds page:
This chart shows you two things: 1) non-seasonally adjusted inflation ran at 0.19% in July (not the rounded 0.2% reported by the BLS) and that means principal balances for all TIPS will increase 0.19% in September. And 2) Four months into the I Bond’s rate-setting period, inflation has run at 1.28%, with two months remaining. The I Bond’s new variable rate — to be reset November 1 — appears to be heading toward a range of 3.2% to 3.4%.
What is this NSA inflation?
A new podcast from Michael Ashton, known around the financial world as the “Inflation Guy,” takes a crack at explaining non-seasonally adjusted inflation (NSA) in plain English. Although this is an esoteric, inside-baseball topic — and Ashton actually uses baseball as an analogy — it’s important for investors in TIPS and I Bonds to understand the basics of NSA. Take a listen:
In his intro, Ashton notes that the inflation derivatives market is suggesting that U.S. inflation will decline from August to December 2023. He notes:
Does this mean that deflation is upon us? No, and the reason why is something called ‘seasonal adjustment.’ It turns out that seasonal adjustment is critically important for inflation markets, and the market’s pricing is not nearly as outlandish as it looks.
Ashton clarifies something that I have noticed and written about over the years: that NSA tends to run higher than seasonally-adjusted ‘headline’ inflation from January to June, and then lower from July to December. At the end of 12 months, both NSA and seasonally-adjusted inflation will match. So if you run higher in the first half of the year, you’ll run lower in the second half.
He notes that the average investor has no interest in NSA versus official inflation, but investors in TIPS and I Bonds do:
Inflation people definitely care, because what gets traded in the market, what TIPS are based on, is non-seasonally adjusted inflation, whereas the number that gets reported, the headline number, is seasonally adjusted. ….
We know that prices have a strong tendency to fall in December, so we can adjust that number and then when see the official CPI report the December number is no more likely to be negative than any other CPI number.
The reality is that prices did decline in that particular December, so bonds tied to inflation ought to reflect the reality, not the seasonally adjusted reality.
This isn’t just a “theoretical” premise — in fact, non-seasonally adjusted inflation consistently runs lower in December than the official seasonally adjusted number.
So, what does this mean for investors of inflation-protected products? The key thing is to recognize that your inflation expectations could take a temporary dive toward the end of the year.
For TIPS investors, the December number sets inflation index for the month of February. As Ashton points out, that means that a TIPS maturing in January (with inflation accruals set by inflation through November) could logically have a lower real yield to maturity than a TIPS maturing in April (with inflation accruals including the month of December). He says:
If you look at a whole list of TIPS, the whole TIPS yield curve, you’ll notice that TIPS that mature in April very often have slightly higher yields than similar maturity bonds that mature in January or July. … You’ll get these little bumps every April.
Given a choice between those two bonds, I’d always rather have the January maturity that doesn’t have to experience that print that I am pretty sure is going to be negative. So investors have to be compensated to hold the April maturity.
This doesn’t always hold up in reality, because TIPS have a lot of factors affecting real yield to maturity. A TIPS with a very high inflation accrual and high coupon rate will generally draw a slightly higher real yield than one with a low inflation accrual and discounted price. Plus, today’s TIPS market is skewed toward higher yields on shorter maturities.
Real yields as of Sept. 8, 2023.
In all these issues through 2028, the January TIPS (highlighted in green) has a higher inflation accrual and generally a higher coupon rate than the TIPS maturing in April and July of the same year. And that tends to push the real yield higher. So at this point, do the TIPS maturing in January look relatively more attractive? I’d say yes, but that’s a quick observation.
But if you take a careful look at this chart, you can see that the TIPS maturing in April of each year consistently have a higher real yield to maturity than the TIPS maturing in July, even with the variance in coupon rates and accrued inflation. That is evidence of the “NSA effect” because the TIPS maturing in July gets the benefit of generally higher NSA from January to May.
Is NSA deflation concerning?
Ashton points out that inflation derivative markets are pricing in slight deflation through the end of the year.
The answer is it’s not terribly unusual to see NSA deflation especially when inflation is kind of low in those last four months of the year. … What the SWAP market is telling you is yes, inflation is expected to be unchanged or slightly lower. … But once you seasonally adjust those numbers you get something like a 2.2% annualized rate.
I Bond investors are less affected by these seasonal skews because the rate-setting periods for I Bonds — April to September and then October to March — cross through the high months and low months and more or less balance out.
Last year, for example, non-seasonal inflation ran at -0.10% in November and -0.31% in December and then jumped to 0.80% in January and 0.56% in February 2023.
The main take-away is to realize that inflation-protected investments are are tied to non-seasonally adjusted inflation and not the headline number you see reported each month. And that will mean some ups and downs across the year, but it all balances out after 12 months.
* * *
Feel free to post comments or questions below. If it is your first-ever comment, it will have to wait for moderation. After that, your comments will automatically appear. Please stay on topic and avoid political tirades.
David Enna is a financial journalist, not a financial adviser. He is not selling or profiting from any investment discussed. I Bonds and TIPS are not “get rich” investments; they are best used for capital preservation and inflation protection. They can be purchased through the Treasury or other providers without fees, commissions or carrying charges. Please do your own research before investing.
Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities 
Thank you! I will need to post something soon.