30-year TIPS auctions with a yield to maturity of 0.842%

A new 30-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Security auctioned today with a coupon rate of 0.750% and a yield to maturity of 0.842%, the Treasury announced.

This is the only 30-year TIPS to be created in 2015, but the Treasury will reopen it in June and October auctions. The real yield (after inflation) of 0.842% was far below last year’s 30-year TIPS, which auctioned on Feb. 20, 2014, with a yield of 1.495% and a coupon rate of 1.375%. Today’s TIPS – CUSIP 912810RL4 – generated the lowest yield for any 29- to 30-year TIPS auction since February 2013.

At creation auctions, the coupon rate of a TIPS is always set to the nearest 1/8% below the yield. That means buyers at today’s auction are getting the TIPS at an adjusted price of $97.33 per $100 of value. The inflation index on this TIPS starts at 0.99756 because of deflation (-0.57%)  back in December when the index was set.

Inflation breakeven rate. With a 30-year nominal Treasury trading today at 2.74%, we get an inflation breakeven rate of 1.89%. That means this new TIPS will outperform a 30-year Treasury if inflation averages more then 1.89% over the next 30 years. A number that low makes this TIPS ‘cheap’ versus a nominal Treasury.

Reaction to the auction. The yield was in line with expectations, and the market seems to be reacting positively in the minutes after the 1 p.m. close of the auction. Here is the 1-day chart for the TIP ETF, which holds a broad range of maturities:

30-year TIPSThe Reuters report on the auction noted ‘heavy investor demand’ for this new TIPS:

“This is the most aggressively bid new issue 30-year TIPS auction since February 2011,” Thomas Simons, money market strategist at Jefferies & Co. wrote in a note about the auction.

“Fund managers, foreign central banks and other indirect bidders bought 69.04 percent of the latest 30-year TIPS supply. This was their largest share at a 30-year TIPS auction since data were available going back to February 2010, Treasury data showed.”

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2 Responses to 30-year TIPS auctions with a yield to maturity of 0.842%

  1. Konstantin says:

    Well done! During the whole week we could see the constant rise of prices for TIPS. What doest it mean – high demand for TIPS as a hedge against inflation or the decline in inflation expectations? What’s the difference between January’s 2015 rise in prices for TIP (amid disinflationary fears) and current one week rally?

  2. tipswatch says:

    Konstantin, it has been a nice rally, pushing the 10-year TIPS yield down to 0.24%, from 0.43% on Feb. 17. But the yield was all the way down to 0.03% on Feb. 1. It’s been a volatile month. But yes, I think inflation fears are beginning to perk up – wage increases appear to be on the rise.

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