I am at work today so I can only post the facts:
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2% in October on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 0.2% before seasonal adjustment.
Non-seasonally adjusted inflation – which is used to adjust the principal balance of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities and set future interest rates on US Savings I Bonds – decreased a slight 0.04% in October, and was up 0.2% over the last 12 months.
I have updated my Tracking Inflation and I Bonds page to reflect these new numbers.
Thanks for the link to the inflation tracker.
We now have the information needed to predict the 1099-OID for TIPS. For bonds held through the whole year, there was a slight increase, so a positive OID. But for the 5-yr bonds that matured in April, the inflation adjustment was large and negative. So it looks like my 1099-OID will be negative for 2015. Any experience dealing with one like that?
I am pretty sure the negative OIDs will offset any positive OIDs. Right now we are looking at a 0.2% increase in inflation over the last 12 months, which could still rise – possibly – by the end of the year. Gasoline prices seem to be heading down again, which will limit inflation in the near term.