Author Archives: Tipswatch

Summary Gasoline prices, up 7.9% in 2019, and shelter costs, up 3.2%, were major factors in 2019’s moderately high inflation. December inflation, however, fell slightly below consensus estimates. You can expect the Fed to continue its “on hold” rate policy. … Continue reading →

Summary The I-Bond’s current fixed rate of 0.20% (essentially, its “real yield”) means it remains the most attractive inflation-protected investment. I recommend waiting until April 10 to make an I-Bond investment decision, because we will then know the future variable … Continue reading →

Summary This was the lowest real yield for a 4- to 5-year TIPS auction since April 2017, when a new TIPS got a real yield of -0.049%. The inflation breakeven rate was 1.69%, a reasonable number that was higher than … Continue reading →

Summary Over the last year, real yields on shorter-term TIPS have dropped more than 100 basis points. In contrast, the real yield on a U.S. Series I Savings Bond has dropped just 30 basis points, making it the preferable investment. … Continue reading →

Summary Headline inflation, which was higher than expected in November, has now topped 2.0% for the first time since November 2018. Core inflation matched expectations but remained moderately high at 2.3% year-over-year. Non-seasonally adjusted inflation declined 0.05%, meaning principal balances … Continue reading →