Author Archives: Tipswatch

Summary Thursday’s 10-year TIPS reopening looks likely to get a real yield to maturity of around 0.64%, well below January’s 0.919%. Investors will pay a premium, because the real yield will be well below the coupon rate of 0.875%. U.S. … Continue reading →

Summary In a reversal of recent trends, food and energy prices increased while other prices were muted. Core inflation rose only 0.1% in the month, below the consensus estimate of 0.2%. Non-seasonally adjusted inflation rose 0.42% in February, a bit … Continue reading →

Summary The after-inflation yield of 1.093% was well below the real yield of 1.235% generated at an October auction of the same term. Indirect buyers – meaning big money investors like foreign central banks – bought a record 82% of … Continue reading →

Summary 30-year real yields have been climbing, but remain below levels that would make them “interesting.” The 30-year inflation breakeven rate is currently trending at 1.9%, an attractive number but one that reflects the reality of stubbornly low inflation. Conclusion: … Continue reading →

Summary Gasoline prices fell 5.5% in January, continuing a downward force on headline inflation. Headline inflation has fallen from 2.9% in June 2018 to 1.6% in January. Core inflation, which removes food and energy, rose a moderate 0.2% in January … Continue reading →