Updated May 28, 2023
|Security Type||New or reopening?||Auction Date|
|5-year TIPS||Reopening||Thursday, June 22, 2023|
|10-year TIPS||New||Thursday, July 20, 2023|
|30-year TIPS||Reopening||Thursday, Aug. 24, 2023|
|10-year TIPS||Reopening||Thursday, Sept. 21, 2023|
|5-year TIPS||New||Thursday, Oct. 19, 2023|
The U.S. Treasury instituted a new TIPS auction schedule in 2019, eliminating one 30-year reopening and adding a new 5-year originating auction. More details.
Here is Treasury’s schedule of auctions:
- January. New 10-year TIPS.
- February. New 30-year TIPS.
- March. Reopening of January 10-year.
- April. New 5-year TIPS.
- May. Reopening of January 10-year.
- June. Reopening of April 5-year.
- July. New 10-year TIPS.
- August. Reopening of February’s 30-year.
- September. Reopening of July 10-year.
- October. New 5-year TIPS.
- November. Reopening of July 10-year.
- December. Reopening of October 5-year.
David, thanks for an excellent, helpful site. My question: Reading your comments above gives me the impression that you prefer to buy TIPS at auction rather than in the secondary market. Are there reasons for that other than avoiding the spread in the secondary market between buy and sell prices (which I guess figures to cost me half the difference between them)?
I write about each auction, so I prefer to invest there. But as real yields have increased, I’ve been filling in longer-term spots on my TIPS ladder through the secondary market. The only negatives are sometimes-high investment limits and the slightly lower yields for small purchases.
Thanks, David. I hadn’t realized that I’d pay a somewhat higher price on small purchases in the secondary market (though I’d suspected it). Good to know. Alan
Do you have any concern that QT, which only started in earnest in September, will lead to serious demand issues in the Treasury market?
We saw the massive dislocation caused by aggressive QE, driving the 10 year yield down to 0.5%
Is there reason to be concerned that withdrawing $95 billion a month, or $1.14 TRILLION a year, from Treasuries and MBS might cause a similar dislocation in the opposite direction, perhaps a less appreciated factor than what happens to Fed Funds over the course of the year?
This time, Japan, China and other foreign buyers may be sellers as well instead of buyers, particularly if the notion takes hold that the 40 year bull market is Treasuries is over.
Yes, definitely a concern and I believe the Fed has to accomplish at least $2 trillion in Treasury roll-offs. Quantitative easing caused a boom in many assets: stock and bonds, for sure, but also housing, crypto, meme stocks, etc. A lot of that is starting to unwind. So far, the Fed’s Treasury balance sheet has fallen from about $5.7 trillion in April 2022 to about $5.4 trillion in January 2023. That’s it. Not impressive so far.
Any thoughts about buying the January 19th 10yr TIPS auction vs waiting for the April 20th 5 year? Split funds between the two?
Too early to guess the coupon on the 10 year?
I’m wondering whether the $95 billion/month Treasury runoff is just beginning to bite and affect demand, whether that might have more of an impact than the course of Fed Funds over the next year
I need to add the 2023 year to my TIPS ladder, so I will be highly likely to buy at the Jan. 19 auction. And if yields hold up, I am also likely to buy at April’s 5-year auction. It’s very hard to predict where real yields will be heading. This market has been highly volatile.
Vanguard has the Jan 19, 2023 10 year tips listed as “reopen”. I guess that will be clarified whenever it is officially announced on the treasury site. So far, I don’t see that auction in the treasury site’s “upcoming auction” list.
It won’t actually be “announced” until Jan. 12, but here is the Treasury’s auction schedule, showing a new issue on Jan. 19. https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/221/Tentative-Auction-Schedule.pdf
So Vanguard is doing the funky label. 🙂 They will likely fix it by at least Jan 12.
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Hi David. What do you think about the 5-year TIPS on 10-20-2022? Thank you
I’ll be posting a preview story on Sunday morning. If things stay as they are right now, this auction will be highly attractive, in my opinion.
Will you also mention the reopening of the 10 year TIPs in November in your story? That’s already available for purchase for around $96.41 per $100 for the 9 years 8 months remaining.
I was a buyer of that TIPS at the originating auction In July (real yield 0.630%) and again in September (1.248%). I won’t be mentioning it in this article previewing the 5-year auction, but it is likely to be attractive. It’s currently trading at 1.60%. The next four auctions — new 5-year, 10-year reopening, 5-year reopening and new 10-year are all likely to be attractive.
A news story yesterday said the president talked about negative interest rates with the head of the Fed. How do possible negative interest rates (whatever that actually means to the little guys) fit into making a decision to buy TIPS?
Negative nominal interest rates would be a disaster for future bond investors. If the 10-year nominal Treasury yield went negative, it would mean the 10-year TIPS real yield would be somewhere in the range of -1.50% to -1.75%. That would be about 100 basis points lower than the record low for a 10-year TIPS. All of this would mean soaring bond prices for bonds you already own, but future bond-buying would be extremely unattractive.
Greetings: Excellent site. Can you direct me to resources that may help identify current and historical market “real” yields (versus nominal) for 5 and ten year TIPS. My objective is to assess relative real yields over time. Thanks.
Frank, you can get this at the Treasury’s Real Yields Curve site, for both nominal and real yields: https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield
what do you think of the FRN?
I looked at it in the past and didn’t like it as an investment for a small investor. Might deserve another look if short-term rates rise … https://tipswatch.com/2013/11/06/the-new-treasury-floating-rate-notes-why-they-look-like-a-bad-deal/
the FRN auction tomorrow is a reissue, does that have any significance?
I don’t understand the significance of the TIP ETF. Is that just the current price, and why do I care if I am holding the actual bonds? I also prefer to buy when inflation sentiment is out of favor, and buy at a discount. The government pays you to buy their paper, that seems like a good thing for the investor.
Ambrose, I don’t invest in the TIP ETF or any TIPS mutual funds, but the price of that ETF is a good indication of current sentiment. It is up more than 5% since February, which indicates that both Treasurys and inflation protection are in high demand. The 10-year TIPS is now yielding 0.12%, down about 60 basis points since the January auction.
have you a POV on the 10 yr now open?
I’ll be posting later today on that new 10-year TIPS.
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Ed, I would have thought that too, especially in 2011 when the S&P actually downgraded the US debt at the apex of a similar crisis. Instead the exact opposite happened, as I detailed in this posting: https://tipswatch.com/2013/04/25/the-tips-earthquake-when-did-it-happen-and-why/
What actually happened was a severe decline in the stock market and a flight to safety, with Treasurys and especially TIPS benefiting. Back in 2011, the fear was a government with spending out of control. That has lessened a bit now, since government spending isn’t the key issue. But it is still an issue, and inflation is still a threat.
Dave, I was thinking that if the USA looks uncertain to repay its debts, higher yields for USA to borrow will result. You seem to be reckoning oppositely … I don’t follow.
Ed, not seeing any upward trend yet in yields. Seems inevitable, but busting the debt limit is very negative for the stock market and very positive for Treasurys, as odd as that sounds. So the trend right now is for lower yields.
Beware the “Ides of October”
From Goldman-Sachs just now:
After October 17, the Treasury can keep conducting auctions to roll over maturing securities, but it cannot increase outstanding debt. If the debt limit is not raised before the Treasury depletes its cash balance, Goldman fears it could force the Treasury to rapidly …
The upcoming 30 yr TIPS auction might have an elevated yield due to concerns …
Will bear extra watching, maybe …
JJ, the Treasury does a TIPS auction each month, and sometimes it is a new issue. That means the base interest rate (coupon rate) and yield to maturity will be set at auction. So for a new issue, you won’t know coupon rate for sure, and the yield you get will be close to the coupon rate. The price you pay for the TIPS will be close to par value, as long as the yield is positive.
When a TIPS is reissued, it carries the coupon rate from the original auction. A few months will have passed, so the yield could have moved strongly up or down from the coupon rate, meaning the price you pay for the TIPS could be less or more than par value.
Once a TIPS is issued, it trades on the secondary market, so it is easier to estimate its likely value at auction. With a new issue, the price can be a little harder to estimate.
Take a look at this post for a recap of all the new and reissues of 2012 and you can see the pattern: https://tipswatch.com/2012/12/30/recapping-2012-the-year-in-tips/
Could you explain, or direct me to where on the site an explanation already exists for, the difference between new and reissued TIPS as listed above? Thanks.