By David Enna, Tipswatch.com
Happy Election Day!
By the time the votes are being counted tonight, I will be on my way to one of my favorite cities, Lisbon, to begin a three-week trip in Portugal and southern Spain. I will try to keep up with politics or … ah, forget it.
But I will be keeping up with inflation news, and this will be my writing schedule while I am on this trip:
Sunday, Nov. 8: I will be posting an article about the potential for deflation in the closing months of the year (yes, even in 2026).
Tuesday, Nov. 10. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the October inflation report at 8:30 a.m. ET. On that day I will be en route to Carmona, Spain, where it will be 2:30 p.m. Central European Time. Most likely, I will not be able to put together an inflation analysis until well after the release.
This isn’t a crucial report, since the I Bond’s new inflation-adjusted variable rate was just set. But it will be highly meaningful for the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee, which will meet December 8 and 9 to decide on an increase to short-term interest rates. This report will strongly influence that decision.
Sunday, Nov. 15. I will post an analysis of the upcoming reopening auction for a 10-year TIPS, CUSIP 91282CRE3, which closed Friday with a real yield of 2.58% on the secondary market. The 10-year real yield has fallen 33 basis points since October 5. It will be interesting to see if this trend continues.
Thursday, Nov. 19. The reopening auction of the 10-year TIPS will close at 1 p.m. ET. At that time I will be in Madrid, where it will be 7 p.m. Too early for dinner in Madrid? We will see. The timing could work out for me to write a brief report.
I am notorious for traveling during deep declines in the stock market, bond-market chaos, outbreaks of regional wars, massive labor strikes, and even a COVID outbreak (I was in Egypt in February 2020.) Be warned.
Salted cod?
I am an adventurous eater and I will try just about anything in Portugal: Caldo verde, grilled sardines with heads on, squid with ink sauce, piri-piri chicken. On my first visit to northern Portugal, I had a cod stew that was absolutely delicious. Most likely, it was fresh cod (or a miracle).
All around Portugal, you can find salted cod (from Norway). There are entire supermarket sections devoted to “bacalhau” — the smell is similar to heavily used gym socks. I avoid getting anywhere near it. Restaurants serve “reconstituted salted cod,” which seems to be a treasured family favorite. It’s possible that when the chef does this perfectly the result is tasty, or at least edible. My option: Avoid it!
—————————
Donate? This site is free and I hope to keep it that way. Some readers have suggested having a way to contribute. I welcome donations, any amount. And FYI, ads on this site pay for about one visit to Costco.
—————————
Follow Tipswatch on X for updates on daily Treasury auctions and real yield trends (when I am not traveling).
Feel free to post comments or questions below. If it is your first-ever comment, it will have to wait for moderation. After that, your comments will automatically appear. Please stay on topic and avoid political tirades. NOTE: Comment threads can only be three responses deep. If you see that you cannot respond, create a new comment and reference the topic.
David Enna is a financial journalist, not a financial adviser. He is not selling or profiting from any investment discussed. I Bonds and TIPS are not “get rich” investments; they are best used for capital preservation and inflation protection. They can be purchased through the Treasury or other providers without fees, commissions or carrying charges. Please do your own research before investing.
Dave, if you have time, drive or train or otherwise get to Evora, my favorite town in Portugal. About an hour East of Lisbon. Stay at the Albergaria do Calvário, my favorite hotel in Evora. Eat breakfast at the outside terrace if it is warm enough. And arrange a tour of Mainova, a beautiful organic wine and olive oil farm about a half hour outside Evora. The drive through fields of oak trees is wonderful. The hotel can help you. Also, just West of town is a small town with a great old ruin of a castle, called Castelo de Montemor-o-Novo. Well worth a visit.
As a matter of fact, we will be in Evora in just a few days. (I have been there before and loved it — even the chapel of bones.) We are in a small traveling group and will be staying at the Pousada Covento Evora. Also visiting a winery on day 2.