What’s ahead in this busy news week?

Posted on June 11, 2023 by Tipswatch

Upcoming: Auctions to watch, decisions from the Federal Reserve, and an important inflation report.

By David Enna, Tipswatch.com

I have to admit that things have seemed pretty sleepy in the peaceful aftermath of the doomsday debt-ceiling crisis. So much “excitement,” and then … naptime.

But things will change this week:

Monday, June 12: The Treasury will auction $65 billion in a 13-week T-bill and $58 billion in a 26-week T-bill. These should provide attractive yields. The auction sizes are larger than normal as the Treasury is working to rebuild its coffers. So far, yields on T-bills have been fairly stable, once the debt-crisis volatility ended. Will the increased issuance cause any cracks?

Also Monday, the Treasury will auction $40 billion in a 3-year Treasury note and $32 billion in a 9-year, 11-month note reopening.

Tuesday, June 13: The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the May inflation report at 8:30 a.m. EDT. U.S. all-items inflation as of April was running at an annual rate of 4.9%, down from a high of 9.1% in June 2022. Core inflation, though, has been holding steady at around 5.5% through all of 2023.

According to Barron’s, the consensus estimate for May all-items inflation is 0.1%, down from 0.4% in April. But Econoday.com pegs the consensus estimate for all-items inflation at 0.2% for the month and 4.1% year over year.

A 4.1% year-over-year inflation rate would be great news for the Fed — showing the trend it wants — but a high core number could tamp down the optimism. Here is the annual trend through April:

This will be an important inflation report because on Wednesday the Federal Reserve will announce if it will in fact pause increases in short-term interest rates, along with providing future guidance.

Also Tuesday, the Treasury will auction $38 billion in a one-year T-bill. Plus, it will stage a 6-week cash management auction for $45 billion.

And one more thing on Tuesday … Treasury will auction $18 billion in a 29-year, 11-month bond reopening.

Wednesday, June 14. Sometime just after 2 p.m. EDT, the Federal Reserve will announce its decision on short-term interest rates. Because the Fed has signaled strongly that it “may” pause rate hikes this month, that is what I expect will happen. (The Fed uses this signaling as a market-calming strategy.) But markets will be watching closely to see what guidance Fed Chair Jay Powell provides on the Fed’s future plans. I am expecting him to leave the door open to further rate hikes and dismiss any speculation about rate cuts in 2023.

Also Wednesday, the Treasury will auction a 17-week T-bill. The amount has not yet been announced.

Thursday, June 15. Treasury will make a routine announcement about its upcoming reopening auction for CUSIP 91282CGW5, creating a 4-year, 10-month Treasury Inflation Protected Security. The auction will close at 1 p.m. June 22. I will be posting a preview article on that auction next Sunday morning.

Also Thursday, Treasury will auction 4- and 8-week T-bills. The amounts have not yet been announced.

Another thing to watch

I continue to be fascinated by TIPS maturing in the 2040-to-2043 range because real yields remain especially attractive in this 20-year range. My idea is to lock up longer-term real yields of 1.7%+ and hold to maturity. That still isn’t possible for the one year I need for my ladder, 2040. Yields have actually declined slightly in the last few days. From Vanguard:

Click on image for a larger version.

My expectation has been that when the Fed actually halts interest-rate increases, we should see a more-traditional steeping of the yield curve, with the 5-year TIPS declining a bit and the longer-term yields rising. Instead, we currently have an odd pattern of peaks and valleys, with the 10-year having the lowest real yield:

These are U.S. Treasury estimates for full-term TIPS at par value, in other words eliminating any effects from coupon rate premiums or accrued inflation. But as you can see by comparing this to the Vanguard secondary offerings, TIPS in that 2040 to 2043 range remain at attractive yields.

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Feel free to post comments or questions below. If it is your first-ever comment, it will have to wait for moderation. After that, your comments will automatically appear. Please stay on topic and avoid political tirades.

David Enna is a financial journalist, not a financial adviser. He is not selling or profiting from any investment discussed. I Bonds and TIPS are not “get rich” investments; they are best used for capital preservation and inflation protection. They can be purchased through the Treasury or other providers without fees, commissions or carrying charges. Please do your own research before investing.

Posted in Federal Reserve, Inflation, Investing in TIPS, Treasury Bills | 9 Comments

Treasury announces plans to step up T-bill issuance

Posted on June 7, 2023 by Tipswatch

By David Enna, Tipswatch.com

The U.S. Treasury issued guidance this morning on its plans to increase issuance of Treasury bills in aftermath of the now-resolved debt-ceiling crisis. The Treasury is rebuilding its cash balance, and that means it will stage larger and additional auctions, focusing on shorter-term issues.

From the press release:

Initial increases in bill issuance will be focused on shorter-tenor benchmark securities and cash management bills (CMBs), including the introduction of a regular weekly 6-week CMB (the first of which will be announced on June 8). Treasury has already announced a series of bills for issuance between June 2 and June 13 inclusive that will result in an increase in bill supply of $131 billion, which is expected to bring Treasury’s cash balance to approximately the same level by June 14. Tax receipts on June 15 will further increase Treasury’s cash balance.

As the early June debt ceiling “x-date” approached, the Treasury staged some unusual T-bill auctions, including $15 billion in a 1-day cash management bill on June 2, which got an investment rate of 5.145%, plus $50 billion in a 38-day on the same day, with an investment rate of 5.367%. On June 1, it offered $25 billion in a 3-day CMB, which got an attractive investment rate of 6.256%.

That 1-day auction was the first of its kind since 2007, according to CNN.

The Treasury hasn’t yet posted the auction size for the new 6-week CMB. The announcement should be coming tomorrow. Most likely it will auction with an investment rate of about 5.2%, given current trends.

(Update: The 6-week CMB is sized at $45 billion. Auction date is June 13.)

Cash management bills are used to help manage the Treasury’s short-term financing needs, fitting between regularly scheduled weekly auctions of 4, 8, 13, 17 and 26 weeks. These cash-management auctions are open to the public, but not offered on TreasuryDirect. You have to place orders through a bank or brokerage.

We’ve also seen the size of the regular short-term auctions increasing dramatically this week:

  • The next 4-week T-bill auction on June 8 will be for $72.6 billion, an increase of at least 21% over the more-typical weekly auction size of $50 billion to $60 billion.
  • The next 8-week auction, also June 8, will be for $50 billion, versus a more typical recent size of $35 billion to $45 billion.
  • Monday’s 13-week auction was for $65 billion, up from $57 billion a week ago.
  • Also Monday, the 26-week auction was for $58 billion, versus $48 billion a month ago.

What this all means

So far, the increased size of the Treasury issues hasn’t had much of an effect on yields, which were expected to fall anyway once the debt-ceiling crisis was resolved. Some financial analysts have warned that this deluge of Treasury offerings could affect liquidity and have a negative effect on the stock market. But that doesn’t seem to be the case, so far.

From a MarketWatch report:

“Our key takeaway is that a large amount of T-bill issuance is not necessarily a reason for a broad risk off shift across markets on its own,” a team led by Winnie Cisar, global head of strategy (for CreditSights), wrote in a Wednesday client note. …

“In our view, broad market concerns about T-bill issuance are overblown,” Cisar’s team said, adding that the “upswing in supply,” by itself, isn’t enough for the team to change its constructive view on corporate credit.

For investors, the resolution of the debt-ceiling crisis should remove any apprehension about short-term Treasury bills, which are considered among the safest and most liquid investments in the world. Despite the recent volatility, yields on short-term T-bills remain quite attractive, beautifully shown in this chart:

Click on image for larger version.

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Feel free to post comments or questions below. If it is your first-ever comment, it will have to wait for moderation. After that, your comments will automatically appear. Please stay on topic and avoid political tirades.

David Enna is a financial journalist, not a financial adviser. He is not selling or profiting from any investment discussed. I Bonds and TIPS are not “get rich” investments; they are best used for capital preservation and inflation protection. They can be purchased through the Treasury or other providers without fees, commissions or carrying charges. Please do your own research before investing.

Posted in Cash alternatives, Treasury Bills, TreasuryDirect | 15 Comments

Question: Is inflation dead?

Posted on June 4, 2023 by Tipswatch

By David Enna, Tipswatch.com

After weeks of financial gloom and omens of disaster, we finally had a “Goldilocks” week in the U.S. financial markets. For example:

  • Debt-limit crisis? Solved.
  • Jobs report? Positive.
  • U.S. dollar? Stronger.
  • Oil prices? Still falling.
  • Stock market? Up 4% in a month.
  • Fed interest rate strategy? Temporary pause.
  • Inflation expectations? Falling.

All is good, right? But that last one — inflation expectations falling — has me wondering: Do we really think inflation is under control, just 11 months after the U.S. annual rate of inflation hit 9.1%? I am not so sure, but the financial markets continue to bet that inflation will fall to traditional levels … very soon.

Here is a look at inflation breakeven rates over the last 3 1/2 years, reflecting the difference in yield between a nominal Treasury and a Treasury Inflation-Protected Security of the same term:

One immediate takeaway from this chart is that the inflation breakeven rate is a lousy predictor of future inflation. It measures investor sentiment, and sentiment is often very wrong. Nowhere on this chart can you find inflation expectations signaling future inflation of 9%, 6%, or even 5%, numbers we saw every single month from May 2021 to March 2023.

Click on image for larger version.

This chart shows that inflation expectations did widen out in early 2022, catching a hint from the highest surge in U.S. inflation in 40 years. But only the 5-year breakeven ever touched a level above 3%. (Inflation over the last 5 years has averaged 3.9%. Over 10 years, 2.7%. Over 30 years, 2.5%)

I am amazed that the financial markets believe inflation will average less than 2.25% across the entire maturity spectrum of TIPS, from 5 to 30 years. That certainly could happen, but my gut says inflation will run higher, especially if we have entered a new era of global price pressures.

Instead, the markets seem to be pricing in sunny skies (surging stock market) and economic gloom (falling inflation expectations) at the same time.

This view is shared by inflation analyst Michael Ashton, who posted a commentary this week titled, “Is Inflation Dead … Again?” His focus is on inflation expectations through the end of the year:

But here is something that seems very weird to me. Prices of short-dated inflation swaps in the interbank market suggest that NSA headline inflation is going to rise less than 0.9% for the entire balance of 2023. … The market is pricing that between June’s CPI print and December’s CPI print the overall price level will rise 0.23%…less than ½% annualized! …

Headline inflation between June and December last year rose only 0.16%, leading to disappointing coupons on iBonds and producing proclamations that inflation was nearly beaten. Here’s the thing, though. The second half of 2022 it made perfect sense that headline inflation was mostly unchanged. Oil prices dropped from $120/bbl the first week of June, to $75 by mid-December. Nationwide, average unleaded gasoline prices dropped from $5 to $3.25 during that time period. …

A comparable percentage decline would mean that gasoline would need to drop to $2.32 from the current $3.58 average price at the pump. …

Naturally, it’s possible that inflation will suddenly flatline from here. I just don’t feel like that’s the ‘fair bet’.

The rest of 2023

For I Bond investors and Social Security recipients awaiting new COLA numbers, inflation rates from July to December are likely to be disappointingly low. That is highly likely because non-seasonally adjusted inflation generally runs higher than the headline number from January to June, and then lower from July to December. This has been a consistent result over the last several years.

And I agree that the inflation picture is likely to look more rosy by the end of the year, especially for the all-items number, which includes food and energy. The Cleveland Fed is forecasting that the U.S. inflation rate will fall to 4.13% in the May report, coming June 13. That would be positive news, but I suspect it’s an optimistic forecast. It also sees core inflation falling to 5.3% from the current rate of 5.5%.

But inflation-watchers need to realize that these late 2023 numbers could be a head-fake, setting up a time of continued inflation above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%. If the markets are right in seeing inflation running at 2.24% for the next 10 years, I’d have to agree that the worst of the inflationary danger has past. But we will have to wait and see. And that’s not a gamble I’m willing to take.

Next steps?

Even though short-term nominal interest rates are very attractive today on safe investments, I recommend sticking with some exposure to longer-term inflation protection. I was buying TIPS and I Bonds through a decade of lower-than-expected inflation, and finally in 2021 to 2023 that strategy paid off with much, much higher-than-expected inflation.

We might see U.S. inflation seem to wane in coming months, and it may or may not reflect a longer-term reality. I’m saying it is smart to hold on to some level of inflation insurance in your portfolio.

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Feel free to post comments or questions below. If it is your first-ever comment, it will have to wait for moderation. After that, your comments will automatically appear. Please stay on topic and avoid political tirades.

David Enna is a financial journalist, not a financial adviser. He is not selling or profiting from any investment discussed. I Bonds and TIPS are not “get rich” investments; they are best used for capital preservation and inflation protection. They can be purchased through the Treasury or other providers without fees, commissions or carrying charges. Please do your own research before investing.

Posted in Federal Reserve, I Bond, Inflation, Investing in TIPS, Social Security | 29 Comments

Follow-up: I pulled the trigger on the February 2042 TIPS

Posted on May 28, 2023 by Tipswatch

By David Enna, Tipswatch.com

Last week I was doing quite a bit of research on Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities that mature from 2040 to 2045, years that “should be” near the end of my life expectancy. That resulted in an article I posted Thursday: “Looking to invest in longer-term TIPS? There’s a problem.”

Writing that article ended up being similar to volunteering at a cat & dog shelter. I found myself wanting to bring all the puppies and kitties home. Here are the six potential investment options, with prices and yields as of Wednesday afternoon:

As I noted in the article, I carry a bias — possibly overblown — against buying high inflation accruals at a premium price. So that ruled out the TIPS maturing in 2040 and 2041, both with high inflation indexes and higher-than-market coupon rates. Those two looked too pricey.

But the more I thought about it, the rest of the bunch (maturing in 2042 to 2045) looked fine, with attractive real yields and relatively high inflation accruals balanced off by below-market coupon rates. I especially liked CUSIP 912810QV3, maturing in February 2042, because it would fill a rung in my TIPS ladder between 2041 and 2043.

I hunted around Friday and noticed the real yield on CUSIP 912810QV3 had increased slightly, to 1.717% on a $10,000 purchase. So I pulled the trigger.

I know that these secondary market TIPS purchases can be confusing — balancing so many factors of cost and inflation accruals — so I’ve created a summary of that investment:

I bought $10,000 in par value of this TIPS, but because of the inflation factor of 1.33494 I was actually purchasing $13,349.40 of principal. The price was 84.57 for $100 of value, so the cost of the investment was $11,289.59.

In other words, I paid $11,289.59 for $13,349.40 of principal. The accrued interest of $27.70 will be repaid to me at the Aug. 15 coupon payment.

At this point, I have $13,349.40 earning annual interest of 0.750%. The principal total will continue climbing with inflation until maturity on Feb. 15, 2042.

With this investment, I am guaranteed to receive the $10,000 par value at maturity, even if we hit 19 years of deflation. That means $1,289.59 of my original investment is at risk if severe and extended deflation strikes. I am OK with that. The risk is extremely small. And the risk is counter-balanced by the 0.750% annual interest I will collect along the way.

What’s coming up

The June 22 reopening auction of CUSIP 91282CGW5 — creating a 4-year, 10-month TIPS — is starting to look interesting. That TIPS got a real yield of 1.32% at the originating auction on April 20, setting its coupon rate at 1.25%. As of Friday’s market close it was trading with real yield of 1.78%, up 46 basis points in just over a month.

Things can change before the June 22 auction, of course, but remember that this TIPS trades on the secondary market and could be purchased at any time along the way, if you see a real yield you find attractive. It’s inflation index is just 1.005 and the price is discounted at about 97.56.

• Confused by TIPS? Read my Q&A on TIPS

• TIPS in depth: Understand the language

• TIPS on the secondary market: Things to consider

• Upcoming schedule of TIPS auctions

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Feel free to post comments or questions below. If it is your first-ever comment, it will have to wait for moderation. After that, your comments will automatically appear. Please stay on topic and avoid political tirades.

David Enna is a financial journalist, not a financial adviser. He is not selling or profiting from any investment discussed. I Bonds and TIPS are not “get rich” investments; they are best used for capital preservation and inflation protection. They can be purchased through the Treasury or other providers without fees, commissions or carrying charges. Please do your own research before investing.

Posted in Investing in TIPS | 25 Comments

Looking to invest in longer-term TIPS? There’s a problem.

Posted on May 25, 2023 by Tipswatch

By David Enna, Tipswatch.com

I recently got an email with a question from long-time site reader Jay, who included a meme to illustrate his point. Here it is:

A TIPS Conundrum:

Lately I’ve been struggling with what to do in my bond portfolio. Should I take advantage of current high real TIPS yields to lock in high returns with LT TIPS? However, doing so goes against my long held desire to avoid taking interest rate risk on long duration bonds, especially with rates jumping around. 

Which to do? Locking in high real TIPS yields for 10-20 years might be a unique opportunity. OTOH, buying LT bonds of any kind in a volatile market is very risky. 

I don’t know the answer, but I came up with this Meme to describe it.

My thoughts

I understand. I also have been looking to load up on longer-term Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (with maturities beyond 10 years). I see the logic in locking in attractive real yields for a longer term. But that’s a difficult task for four reasons:

  1. I am nearing age 70 so my hold-to-maturity range is optimistically no more than 21 years, stretching out to potentially 2044.
  2. There is a yawning gap in TIPS available on the secondary market, with no TIPS maturing in the years 2034 to 2039.
  3. TIPS maturing in years 2040 and 2041 have a combination of a high coupon rate and a high inflation index, making them pricey investments versus par value.
  4. TIPS maturing in years 2042 to 2045 have lower coupon rates and therefore sell at a discount to par, but also have inflation factors of 28% or higher. These are more attractive, but still pricey versus par value.

Why the gap?

20-year TIPS. From July 2004 to January 2009, the Treasury issued 20-year TIPS, resulting in just five securities of that term. Then Treasury discontinued the 20-year TIPS and it has never returned. That means there are no 20-year TIPS maturing beyond the year 2029.

30-year TIPS. The Treasury offered 30-year TIPS from 1998 to 2001, and then discontinued this maturity until it was restarted in 2010. So that means there are no 30-year TIPS maturing from April 2032 to February 2040.

So we have a gap, with no TIPS available to purchase with maturities from 2034 to 2039. In a real-life portfolio, what does this mean? Here is my TIPS ladder, updated through May 2023, with all par values set to $1,000 to present as an example:

This chart shows the coupon rate, not the actual real yield to maturity at the time of investment.

The key here is that I have no TIPS maturing in the years 2034 to 2040. There are no TIPS available for years 2034 to 2039, and I don’t find the TIPS available in years 2040 and 2042 attractive enough to purchase.

In the last year, I’ve developed a habit of looking at the secondary market for TIPS maturing in my gap years. That worked out well for me in November 2022, when I grabbed CUSIP 912810RA8 — maturing in February 2043 — with a real yield to maturity of 2.02% and a total investment price below par value.

That was a lucky hit, just as TIPS real yields were peaking. I haven’t been able to find anything nearly as attractive in recent months. Here is a look at secondary market prices as of Wednesday for my gap-year TIPS:

The first two on this list, which work “better” in my life-expectancy timeline, both have higher-than-market coupon rates and high inflation factors, making their pricing at least 7.5% above purchased principal. I don’t like buying above-par principal at prices well above value. So these are out.

The last four in the list would work better for me, with coupon rates below market real yields and therefore selling at a discount. Note that CUSIP 912810RA8 — which I bought last November — now carries a real yield to maturity of about 1.7%, down from 2.02% at the time of my purchase. Plus its inflation index has now increased about 1.8%.

Of these issues, I’d be most interested in CUSIP 912810QV3, which matures in February 2042 and would fill that spot on my TIPS ladder. I’d just like to see the real yield rise a bit higher.

• May 28 follow-up: I pulled the trigger on the February 2042 TIPS

My personal opinion, and you can disagree: I am OK with buying inflation-accrued principal (meaning above par value) if I can get it at a discount price. That is true for all four of the the TIPS maturing from 2042 to 2045.

When you pay a price above par value for a TIPS — which is often the case on the secondary market — you take a tiny risk because the amount above par is not guaranteed to be returned at maturity if we hit a long stretch of deflation. That is a risk I am willing to take.

What about a TIPS fund?

Another option for investors would be to look at an ETF that invests in longer-term TIPS. One option is the PIMCO 15+ Year US TIPS Index ETF (LTPZ), with an expense ratio of 0.2%. Because of its long duration (19.8 years) this fund is volatile. If real yields rise in the future, its performance would be disastrous. If they fall, it will do very well. Here are its total annual returns, from Morningstar:

This fund’s total annual return over the last five years is 1.43% and for 10 years, 1.33%. Because of its volatility, LTPZ doesn’t fit my investment style or meet my need for stability in a TIPS investment ladder. My vote is “no.”

The only TIPS fund I currently own is Vanguard’s Short-Term Inflation-Protected ETF (VTIP) with an expense ratio of 0.04% and a duration of only 2.6 years. I use this fund in a traditional IRA to hold money awaiting investment in individual TIPS. It’s not very volatile and also not very exciting, which fits my needs:

VTIP’s total annual return over the last five years was 2.81% and for 10 years, 1.53%. Both of these returns beat LTPZ’s performance, with much less risk. But while I like VTIP, it doesn’t fill my need for more exposure to longer-term TIPS.

I Bonds can fill the gap

If you purchase an I Bond today with a fixed rate of 0.9%, you get a flexible investment that you can hold for any time period, from 1 to 30 years. So I Bonds can work well to fill that TIPS gap for the years 2034 to 2039, and beyond. I Bonds don’t sell at a premium and can never lose a cent of value, even if deflation sets in or interest rates rise. For that reason, I think I Bonds are much more attractive than a long-term TIPS fund like LTPZ.

• Confused by TIPS? Read my Q&A on TIPS

• TIPS in depth: Understand the language

• TIPS on the secondary market: Things to consider

• Upcoming schedule of TIPS auctions

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Feel free to post comments or questions below. If it is your first-ever comment, it will have to wait for moderation. After that, your comments will automatically appear. Please stay on topic and avoid political tirades.

David Enna is a financial journalist, not a financial adviser. He is not selling or profiting from any investment discussed. I Bonds and TIPS are not “get rich” investments; they are best used for capital preservation and inflation protection. They can be purchased through the Treasury or other providers without fees, commissions or carrying charges. Please do your own research before investing.

Posted in I Bond, Investing in TIPS, Retirement | 40 Comments