Author Archives: Tipswatch

Summary Both real and nominal yields have plummeted in 2019, with nominal yields on government debt dipping into the negative in Europe and Asia. Returns on I Bonds and EE Bonds still have the same terms that the Treasury set … Continue reading →

Summary Five-year real yields have dropped nearly 100 basis points in the last six months. That’s a huge move in anticipation of Federal Reserve rate cuts. Today’s real yield of 0.152% had to be a disappointment to investors, who also … Continue reading →

Summary Expect volatility in the Treasury market this week because the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee will issue a statement Wednesday, one day before the auction. At this point, CUSIP 128286N5 is heading toward a real yield of about 0.35%, … Continue reading →

Summary The Federal Reserve looks likely to begin cutting short-term rates in 2019, possibly as much as 75 basis points over the next year. Yields for money market funds and short-term Treasurys will track lower with those rate cuts. Inflation-protected … Continue reading →

Summary Both headline and core inflation numbers fell short of consensus estimates. Gasoline prices fell 0.5% in May, following a 5.7% increase in April. Gas prices could be a deflationary force in coming months. May’s mild inflation report leaves the … Continue reading →