July 24 update: New 10-year TIPS gets real yield of 1.985% to solid investor demand
By David Enna, Tipswatch.com
On Thursday, July 24, the U.S. Treasury will offer $21 billion in a new 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Security, CUSIP 91282CNS6. This is shaping up to be an attractive auction, likely generating a real yield to maturity close to 2%, or higher.
The coupon rate and real yield will be set by the results of the auction, which closes at 1 p.m. EDT. But you can get a fairly accurate idea of the likely real yield by checking the Treasury’s Real Yield Curve estimates, which update at market close each day.
Each day since July 2, the 10-year real yield has closed above the 2.0% level, which is traditionally an attractive milestone. Anything can happen by Thursday’s auction, but a range around 2% seems likely.
This auction size of $21 billion, by the way, is the largest in history for a new or reopened 10-year TIPS. It is up from $20 billion at the most recent originating auction in January, and up from $19 billion last July.
So far, these larger auction sizes haven’t greatly affected demand. The bigger issue seems to be the market’s acceptance of longer-term Treasurys at a time of rising future deficits.
Definition: The “real yield to maturity” of a TIPS is its yield above official future U.S. inflation, over the term of the TIPS. So a real yield of 2.03% means an investment in this TIPS would provide a return that exceeds U.S. inflation by 2.03% for 10 years.
Note that the January auction of a new 10-year TIPS (CUSIP 91282CML2) got a real yield of 2.243%, the highest for this term at auction in 16 years.
So is a real yield of 2.03% attractive? Yes, in a historical perspective. Real yields could certainly continue climbing higher, but 2% is a solid above-inflation return. Here is the trend in the 10-year real yield over the last 20 years, showing the huge gap from 2011 to 2022 when the 10-year real yield rarely exceeded 1%:

Pricing
Because this is an originating auction, this TIPS should get a price close to, or a bit below, par value. The coupon rate will be set at the 1/8th percentage fraction below the auctioned real yield (for example, 2.00% for a real yield of 2.05%), so the unadjusted price will be slightly discounted. In addition, this TIPS will have a minimal inflation index of 1.00108 on the settlement date of July 31.
In the end, the adjusted price should be close to 100, meaning the investor will be paying par value, or very slightly less or slightly more. Order $10,000 of this TIPS and you will probably have an investment cost of about $10,000.
Inflation breakeven rate
The 10-year Treasury note closed Friday with a nominal yield of 4.44%, setting up an inflation breakeven rate of 2.41%, which is higher than the result of any auction of this term going back to a May 2022 reopening at 2.61%. (But it is still well below the 20-year high of 3.02% hit in April 2022.) A high inflation breakeven rate indicates that a TIPS is “expensive” versus the nominal Treasury.
This rate is likely to change by Thursday, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it go lower. But the market is facing a lot of uncertainty about future inflation. Here is the trend in the 10-year inflation breakeven rate over the last 20 years, showing the recent trend of breakevens in the range of 2.0% to 2.5%:

Thoughts
This is a new TIPS, so it isn’t available on the secondary market. If you want a TIPS maturing in July 2035, you can either buy at this auction or wait for later opportunities on the secondary market. (Trading in a new TIPS can sometimes be slim in initial weeks.)
I won’t be a buyer because I filled the 2035 rung of my TIPS ladder at the January auction. (The higher real yield was just luck, not a clever strategy.) Now my next purchase will be in January 2026, to fill the 2036 rung.
If the auctioned real yield maintains around 2% or above, the result will be attractive for investors who plan to hold to maturity. Real yields could go higher, but collecting 2% above inflation for 10 years is sound. (And a reminder: Investing in TIPS won’t make you rich; it is a strategy for preserving capital.)
This TIPS auction closes Thursday at 1 p.m. EDT. Non-competitive bids at TreasuryDirect must be placed by noon Thursday. If you are putting an order in through a brokerage, make sure to place your order Wednesday or very early Thursday, because brokers cut off auction orders before the noon deadline.
I will be posting the auction results soon after the close on Thursday. Here is a history of auction results for this term over the last 5 years:
• Now is an ideal time to build a TIPS ladder
• Confused by TIPS? Read my Q&A on TIPS
• TIPS in depth: Understand the language
• TIPS on the secondary market: Things to consider
• TIPS investor: Don’t over-think the threat of deflation
• Upcoming schedule of TIPS auctions
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David Enna is a financial journalist, not a financial adviser. He is not selling or profiting from any investment discussed. I Bonds and TIPS are not “get rich” investments; they are best used for capital preservation and inflation protection. They can be purchased through the Treasury or other providers without fees, commissions or carrying charges. Please do your own research before investing.














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