By David Enna, Tipswatch.com
It’s been an interesting month for financial investments of all types, as markets adapt to the launch of a second Donald Trump administration. Interesting, and very profitable for some speculative investors.
Some examples:
- The S&P 500 stock index has surged 6.6% since Election Day on Nov. 5.
- NASDAQ stocks are up 9.2% overall.
- Bitcoin is up 49.5%.
- Tesla shares are up 60.2%.
- Software firm MicroStrategy, which has speculated on Bitcoin, is up 77.1%.
- The stock of private prison firm CoreCivic is up 62.1%.
- Palantir Technologies, a data analytics firm with expertise in counter-terrorism, is up 84.3%.
Some of these one-month increases are bordering on ridiculous. Speculators have been doing very well. That worries me as we enter a period of much easier regulation of giant financial firms. But even the low-volatility bond market has been doing okay, as interest rates have slipped from late-year highs. Vanguard’s Total Bond Market ETF is up 1.2% since Election Day, and the TIP ETF is up 0.82%.
Investors in Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities have seen the real yield curve both widen and then decline in the closing weeks of this year, with long-term TIPS getting higher yields than the shorter-term issues. Here is the year-to-date trend:
I highlighted the middle section of this chart, spring 2024, to show an optimal time for building a long-term ladder of TIPS investments. It is unusual to see high yields packed in a tight pattern. Investors could purchase individual TIPS of just about any maturity, 5 to 30 years, and get a real yield higher than 2.0%, a historically desirable number. See my post from June 9 and a more recent update on Nov. 10.
Here is a recap of real yields through the year, showing the high and low yields based on the 10-year term.
What we are seeing today is a “normalized” yield curve, and still attractive.
I’d expect the 5-year real yield to decline (a bit) as the Federal Reserve continues to cut short-term interest rates. The Fed will announce a decision Dec. 18, a week after we get the November inflation report (Dec. 11) and one day before a 5-year TIPS reopening auction (Dec. 19).
It seems highly likely the Fed will cut its federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.25% to 4.50%. Last week’s 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions seemed to signal the market’s belief a cut is coming. The 4-week came in at 4.476%, down from the week earlier’s 4.630%. The 8-week was also down at 4.440%.
So for the time being, we could see slightly lower real yields in the 5- to 10-year range, but somewhat more stable real yields in the 20- to 30-year range. The upcoming inflation report could also swing the market. Barron’s is forecasting an CPI-U increase of 0.3% for October, which would indicate inflation is not steadily sliding lower.
I don’t see mid- to longer-term real yields declining dramatically in the near term. Do TIPS remain attractive investments? I think so in a time of economic uncertainty.
What comes next
Wednesday, Dec. 11. I will be posting an analysis of the November inflation report and its effect on TIPS and I Bonds. Even if seasonally-adjusted inflation comes in at 0.3%, you can expect the non-seasonally number — which affects TIPS and I Bonds — to be lower. In November 2023, official CPI-U rose 0.1% while non-seasonal was down 0.2%.
If November inflation ends up in the expected range, stock market investors will probably yawn and continue the Santa Claus/Trump rally.
Sunday, Dec. 15. I will post a preview article on the upcoming reopening auction of a 5-year TIPS, CUSIP 91282CLV1. Prediction: The real yield could end up being quite close to the originating auction‘s 1.670%, or a bit lower.
Wednesday, Dec. 18. The Federal Reserve will announce its decision on short-term interest rates. I won’t be writing about that, unless something wild happens.
Thursday, Dec. 19. I’ll post the results and an analysis of the 5-year TIPS reopening auction.
Thursday, Jan. 2. I am hoping for some guidance from the Treasury on the status of gift-box purchases of I Bonds. I delivered two sets in 2024. At the least I hope to see — possibly — if I am locked out of purchases in 2025.
• Confused by TIPS? Read my Q&A on TIPS
• TIPS in depth: Understand the language
• TIPS on the secondary market: Things to consider
• TIPS investor: Don’t over-think the threat of deflation
• Upcoming schedule of TIPS auctions
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Follow Tipswatch on X (Twitter) for updates on daily Treasury auctions and real yield trends (when I am not traveling).
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David Enna is a financial journalist, not a financial adviser. He is not selling or profiting from any investment discussed. I Bonds and TIPS are not “get rich” investments; they are best used for capital preservation and inflation protection. They can be purchased through the Treasury or other providers without fees, commissions or carrying charges. Please do your own research before investing.

















The 5-year real yield jumped 16 basis points to 1.96% today, the highest it’s been since early January 2025.