Author Archives: Tipswatch

Summary Both all-items inflation and core inflation rose faster in June than the consensus estimates. Will any of this alter the Federal Reserve’s commitment to ultra-low interest rates? No. The June inflation report offers a glimmer of hope for a … Continue reading →

Summary The Social Security Administration uses an esoteric inflation index and only three months of data to determine the COLA. As of the May inflation report, the COLA would be set to zero. But May’s number is pretty much irrelevant … Continue reading →

Summary Demand looked strong at this auction, with the real yield falling about 7 basis points from the secondary market’s yield earlier in the morning. The inflation breakeven rate came in at 1.10%, a reasonable number given our uncertain deflationary … Continue reading →

Summary The real yield looks likely to drop to about -0.65%, the lowest yield for any auction of this term since April 2013. The inflation breakeven rate is running at about 0.98%, up from recent lows but still attractive as … Continue reading →

Summary Price declines reflected the effects of COVID-19 shutdowns, with gas prices falling, along with prices of auto insurance, air travel, apparel and lodging away from home. Price increases hit more necessary items: Food, shelter, medical care and, alcohol. How … Continue reading →