Author Archives: Tipswatch

Summary Bad news for holders of TIPS and I Bonds: Non-seasonally adjusted inflation fell 0.32% in December. Falling energy prices again accounted for almost all the decline in overall inflation. Core inflation remains moderate and steady at 2.2%. The December … Continue reading →

Summary Be patient: Because the I Bond’s fixed rate of 0.50% is locked in through April 30, there is no need to rush to purchase. Is a higher fixed rate possible in 2019? Yes, but the current trend doesn’t make … Continue reading →

Summary Both real and nominal yields climbed sharply in 2018, especially for shorter terms. The yield curve has dramatically flattened, possibly pointing to an economic slowdown. TIPS auctions were a mixed bag in 2018: the 30-year auctions were unattractive, the … Continue reading →

Summary You have to go back to April 2009 to find a 4- to 5-year TIPS auction with a higher real yield. The inflation breakeven rate came in at 1.51%, very low by recent trends and a favorable indicator for … Continue reading →

Summary The real yield could be about 1.12%, the highest after-inflation yield in nearly 10 years of 4- to 5-year TIPS auctions. The real yield curve has inverted, with the 5-year TIPS now yielding about 6 basis points more than … Continue reading →