Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities

• Returns for this new TIPS will slightly lag inflation over the next five years.
• The negative yield is an omen that the markets see a troubled economy ahead.
• The inflation breakeven rate came in at 1.82%, a little higher than recent numbers.

Yes, that is a negative number, and it means that returns for investors in CUSIP 912828X39 will slightly lag inflation over the next five years.

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• Buy before May 1 and get a higher variable rate; buy after May 1 and possibly get a higher fixed rate.
• Waiting will cost you short term, and it might take about 4 years to break even.
• But I Bond investors are always eager to get a higher fixed rate. Should you divide your purchases this year?

Investors in US Series I Savings Bonds are in an interesting ‘limbo’ period right now, leading up to the May 1 reset of the I Bond’s variable and fixed rates.

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• At the May 1 reset, the I Bond’s variable rate will fall from 2.76% to 1.96%.
• We don’t know yet what the new fixed rate will be. Will it rise to 0.1%? Still possible.
• Should you buy I Bonds before May 1 to get the higher variable rate? Or hold out for the higher fixed rate? Tough call.

This decline in the variable rate sets up an interesting decision for I Bond investors: Buy before May 1 to get the 2.76% variable rate for six months, or wait until May 1 to see if the I Bond’s fixed rate – currently set at 0.0% – will rise to 0.1% (or higher).

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Also, I have updated my Tracking Inflation and I Bonds page with these new numbers.

And here are the May CPI indexes for TIPS.

• Inflation report on April 14 will set the I Bond’s six-month variable rate, taking effect May 1.
• Right now, it looks like the new six-month variable rate could be lower than the current 2.76%.
• However, it’s possible the May 1 fixed rate – which stays with the I Bond forever – will rise above the current 0.0%.

The idea with I Bonds is to build a large inflation-protected cache, as part of an overall portfolio that includes stocks, bonds, nominal Treasurys, TIPS, bank CDs, mutual funds. The difficulty is that there is a $10,000 per person per year purchase limit on I Bonds, so to build a large stockpile you have to buy them every year. And then the question is: When do you make the purchase?

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