Do you believe inflation will average more than 2.12% over the next 5 years?
By David Enna, Tipswatch.com
The U.S. Treasury on Thursday will offer $21 billion in a reopened 5-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Security, CUSIP 91282CKL4.
The result will be a 4-year, 10-month TIPS with a coupon rate of 2.125%, which was set by the originating auction on April 18, 2024. The auction size of $21 billion is the largest for any 5-year TIPS reopening in history, up from $20 billion in December 2023 and $19 billion a year ago in June 2023.
I was a buyer at that originating auction, which generated a real yield to maturity of 2.242%, the 2nd highest at auction in 15 years for any 4- to 5-year TIPS. As of Friday, CUSIP 91282CKL4 was trading on the secondary market with a slightly lower real yield of 2.12%.
What makes this auction interesting is the sudden shakeup of both real and nominal yields, triggered by a soft inflation report released Wednesday. That report caused speculation the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates several times in 2024, but then the Fed tamped down the euphoria with a prediction of “one … or maybe two” rate cuts this year, depending on the data it sees. This set off a shakeup in bond yields:
- Nominal. On Monday, the 5-year nominal Treasury note closed with a yield of 4.48%, which fell to 4.22% by Friday, a drop of 20 basis points.
- Real. The 5-year TIPS real yield closed Monday at 2.21% and fell to 2.11% at Friday’s close, a drop of only 10 basis points.
The difference means the 5-year inflation breakeven rate — a measure of future inflation expectations — fell by 10 basis points in a week. And in fact, the breakeven rate of 2.11% hit a low for 2024. I heard a commentator on Bloomberg this week mention the “collapse in breakevens” as a significant event. I wrote about this wild yield trend back on June 9: Read that here.
A lower inflation breakeven rate indicates a TIPS is “cheaper” as an investment versus the nominal Treasury of the same term. Here is the trend in the 5-year inflation breakeven rate so far in 2024:
In just two months, expectations for inflation over the next five years have fallen 41 basis points. That is a remarkable move lower, and potentially makes the 5-year TIPS an attractive investment when measured against a nominal Treasury.
Here is a 20-year look at the 5-year inflation breakeven rate, showing that 2.12% is in a historically high range, but well below recent trends. In my opinion, the risk of under-performance for this 5-year TIPS (versus a nominal Treasury) is small.

The real yield
CUSIP 91282CKL4 trades on the secondary market, and you can track its real yield on Bloomberg’s Current Yields page, which updates in real time. It closed Friday at 2.12%, just slightly below the coupon rate of 2.125%. Here is the trend in 5-year real yields over the last 20 years:
A lot can change this week, especially with the high volatility we’ve seen in the last month. Just based on reasonable inflation expectations, it seems like the yield should be more in the range of 1.95% to 2.00%. That’s not a prediction, just an observation.
Pricing
Bloomberg shows a price very close to par value, 100.02, given that the current real yield is close to the coupon rate of 2.125%. This TIPS will have an inflation index of 1.01332 on the settlement date of June 28. So that leads to this estimate of the potential cost of $10,000 par at auction:
- Par value: $10,000
- Principal purchased: $10,000 x 1.01332 = $10,133.20
- Cost of investment = $10,133.20 x 1.0002 = $10,135,23
- + about $43.54 of accrued interest.
This calculation is an estimate and is highly likely to change in the next week.
Thoughts
It will be interesting to see if the real yield of this TIPS holds above 2.0% over the next week. It could be that bond-market turmoil left real yields a bit out of sorts on Friday. Or … investors really have decided that inflation could average less than 2.12% over the next 4 years, 10 months. If yields hold, this TIPS is attractive versus the nominal Treasury.
Last week, you could find best-in-nation 5-year bank CDs yielding 4.50%, which moves the inflation breakeven rate up to 2.38%, a more reasonable number. But we could see those bank CD rates fall if the downward Treasury yield trend continues.
I won’t be a buyer because I already own this TIPS and the 2029 rung of my TIPS ladder is fully stocked. If you are considering a purchase, watch Bloomberg’s Current Yields page during the week. The 5-year quote there is for CUSIP 91282CKL4. (And of course you can buy this TIPS at any time on the secondary market.)
This TIPS auction closes Thursday at 1 p.m. EDT. Non-competitive bids at TreasuryDirect must be placed by noon Thursday. If you are putting an order in through a brokerage, make sure to place your order Wednesday or very early Thursday, because brokers cut off auction orders before the noon deadline.
I will be posting the auction results soon after the close on Thursday. Here is a history of auction results for this term over the last 7 years:
• Now is an ideal time to build a TIPS ladder
• Confused by TIPS? Read my Q&A on TIPS
• TIPS in depth: Understand the language
• TIPS on the secondary market: Things to consider
• Upcoming schedule of TIPS auctions
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Follow Tipswatch on X (Twitter) for updates on daily Treasury auctions and real yield trends (when I am not traveling).
Feel free to post comments or questions below. If it is your first-ever comment, it will have to wait for moderation. After that, your comments will automatically appear.Please stay on topic and avoid political tirades.
David Enna is a financial journalist, not a financial adviser. He is not selling or profiting from any investment discussed. I Bonds and TIPS are not “get rich” investments; they are best used for capital preservation and inflation protection. They can be purchased through the Treasury or other providers without fees, commissions or carrying charges. Please do your own research before investing.












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