I won’t say ‘yes,’ but TIPS in general look attractive for the first time in several years.
By David Enna, Tipswatch.com
For many years, I’ve been tracking the price of the iShares TIP ETF, which holds the full array of TIPS maturities. Over that time, I’ve noticed something odd: The ETF’s net asset value consistently bounces higher after dipping below $110.
I have no investments in TIP and my favored fund of this type is Schwab’s U.S. TIPS ETF, which has a lower expense ratio. But TIP is the biggest and most-watched fund investing in Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, so I use it as a proxy for the market.
I’ve thrown this $110 theory out there many times in the past, including this article I wrote on November 6, 2015, with exactly the same headline. On that day, the TIP ETF closed at $109.87, very close to Friday’s close of $109.70. The ETF also broke through the $110 barrier on March 20, 2020, a day of chaos throughout the stock and bond markets.
Here is a chart tracking the net asset value of the TIP ETF going back to January 2011, the first year of aggressive Federal Reserve intervention in the Treasury market:
Does this look like a coincidence or some kind of true price resistance? My theory is that each of these dips reflects a rise in real yields to attractive levels, but in almost every case since 2011, the Federal Reserve eventually stepped in to lower Treasury yields, and in turn to increase the NAV value of the TIP ETF.
Back in November 2015, when I noted the $110 milestone, this was the state of the TIPS market:
A 5-year TIPS had a real yield of 0.42%.
A 10-year TIPS, 0.71%.
A 30-year TIPS, 1.27%.
And this is the situation at today’s market close on (Sept. 16, 2022):
A 5-year TIPS has a real yield of 1.13%
A 10-year TIPS, 1.07%
a 30-year TIPS, 1.25%.
When was the last time real yields were this high? Back on Nov. 27, 2018, when the 5-year real yield reached 1.16%; the 10-year, 1.15%; and the 30-year 1.34%. And … it just so happens that the TIP ETF closed at $108.48 on that day. One year later, the TIP ETF closed at $116.65. Two years later it was at $126.28.
What’s the point?
The bond market is a very scary thing in September 2022 and I’m not going to argue that anyone should be pouring money into TIPS mutual funds or ETFs. But I will argue that TIPS in general — along with these funds — are much more attractive today than they were six months ago, when the 10-year TIPS was yielding -1.04% and the TIP ETF was trading at $122.46.
I have been nibbling into TIPS since May with small purchases at auctions, reallocating money from SCHP to individual TIPS. I think it is time to start taking some bigger bites, starting with next week’s 10-year TIPS reopening auction. I’ll be posting a preview of that auction on Sunday.
Keep in mind that these are my investments and my opinions. I am a journalist, not a financial adviser.
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Feel free to post comments or questions below. If it is your first-ever comment, it will have to wait for moderation. After that, your comments will automatically appear.
David Enna is a financial journalist, not a financial adviser. He is not selling or profiting from any investment discussed. The investments he discusses can be purchased through the Treasury or other providers without fees, commissions or carrying charges. Please do your own research before investing.
When I was a kid, my parents encouraged me to open a “passbook savings account” at a nearby savings & loan. As I recall, that account was paying 5% interest. At the time, I wasn’t impressed. Sixty years later, I’d jump for joy over 5% interest.
In the mid 1960s, the Federal Reserve was raising its effective federal funds rate after a recession in the early 1960s pushed it down to 1.17% in July 1961. In mid 1961, U.S. inflation was running at 1.4%, but it began moving higher and by November 1966 it had reached 3.8%. Where was the effective federal funds rate in November 1966? 5.76%, much higher than the rate of inflation.
The point is: Over the last 70 years, it’s been very rare to see the federal funds rate anywhere near zero and well below the annual rate of U.S. inflation. That is to say: Rare, until the last 10 years, when the Federal Reserve has adopted an accommodative policy to keep the U.S. economy (and stock market) ticking higher.
Here is a historical view of the federal funds rate from 1954 to today:
Click on the image for a larger version.
As you can see in the chart, the Federal Reserve kept its key short-term interest rate much higher than the current 2.33% until market crashes/recessions in 2000, 2008 and (briefly) in 2020. The current rate of 2.33% is a historical anomaly, and it has room to move higher based on historical precedent.
Federal funds rate vs. inflation
This next chart shows the federal funds rate in comparison to the annual U.S. inflation rate:
Click on the image to see a larger version.
This chart clearly shows that the Federal Reserve, through much of the last 70 years, has attempted to keep its federal funds rate tracking higher than the annual U.S. inflation rate, even going to the extreme of 19.1% in July 1981, at a time when U.S. inflation was running at 10.8%. That extreme action eventually brought inflation down, but the federal funds rate lingered at a high level through much of the 1980s, reaching only 9.85% in March 1989 before beginning a slide downward.
Even after the dot-com crash of 2000, the federal funds rate tracked pretty closely with U.S. inflation. The dramatic change came after the financial crash of 2008, when the effective federal funds rate reached the unprecedented level of 0.16% in December 2008.
Since 2008, the federal funds rate has remained well below annual U.S. inflation except for a brief time in 2019 — for example, 2.4% in July 2019 at a time when inflation was running at 1.8%. This accommodative policy has led to our current surge in inflation. The gap is shockingly high now … 2.33% versus the current inflation rate of 8.3%.
Federal funds rate versus stock market
This chart compares monthly annual gains or losses in the total stock market versus the federal funds rate, from April 1980 to August 2022:
Click on image to see a larger version.
The key point to notice that when the stock market rises, even dramatically, the federal funds rate tends to hold steady. When it declines, especially in advance of a recession, the federal funds rate tends to track lower. The Federal Reserve acts quickly to hold off recessions, and that in turn supports lofty stock market values, at times. When the economy and stock market are booming — especially when inflation isn’t a severe issue — the Federal Reserve stands pat.
Federal funds rate vs. GDP
This next chart provides a historical perspective on the effect of the federal funds rate on the U.S. gross domestic product:
Click on the image to see a larger version.
Again, for most of the last 70 years, the Federal Reserve held its key short-term interest rate higher than the annualized changes in the U.S. gross domestic product. If you look at the chart carefully, you can see that the federal funds rate tends to lag behind changes in the economy, rising during times of prosperity and falling during times of recession. But it does not appear to have a dramatic effect on GDP, which tends to tick along in the 2% range, even when the federal funds rate approached zero after 2008.
Conclusion
By historical standards, the Federal Reserve has room to continue to raise the federal funds rate, at least to a level that begins to approach the annual core inflation rate of 6.3%. But that won’t happen, and maybe it doesn’t need to happen. If you assume that inflation will begin drifting lower in future months, it is possible that a federal funds rate of 4% to 5% will hit the mark to keep inflation under control
But the fact is, before the August inflation report was released yesterday, many “experts” were predicting that the Fed would begin rolling back short-term interest rates in 2023 as the economy weakens. And I think that is all too likely.
My preference would be for the Fed to find a true neutral level — say 4.25% to 4.5% — and hold short-term rates at that level for a reasonable period of time, say throughout 2023. No more fiddling. Allow savers and the overall market to find a solid ground for future investments.
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Feel free to post comments or questions below. If it is your first-ever comment, it will have to wait for moderation. After that, your comments will automatically appear.
David Enna is a financial journalist, not a financial adviser. He is not selling or profiting from any investment discussed. The investments he discusses can be purchased through the Treasury or other providers without fees, commissions or carrying charges. Please do your own research before investing.
Surprises, surprises. Financial markets, which had been rallying over the last week on expectations of falling prices, got an inflation reality check today: Seasonally adjusted U.S. inflation rose 0.1% in August, and 8.3% over the last year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported.
Economists had been expecting inflation to decline for the month, based on plummeting gasoline prices, which were down 10.6% for the month. Instead, both the monthly and year-over-year numbers came in higher than expectations. Core inflation, which removes food and energy, also greatly surpassed expectations, coming in at 0.6% for the month (versus an expected 0.3%) and 6.3% for the year (versus 6.1%).
My two-word analysis: “Not good.”
The BLS noted that increases in the shelter, food, and medical care indexes were the largest of “many” contributors to the all-items increase, overwhelming the deep decline in gasoline prices. Some key data from the report:
Food prices rose 0.8% for the month (the smallest monthly increase this year) and are now up a painful 11.4% year over year. Prices for all six major grocery store indexes increased.
The food at home index has increased 13.5% over the last 12 months, the largest one-year increase since March 1979.
Shelter costs increased 0.7% for the month and are up 6.2% year over year. The rent index rose 0.7% for the month.
Costs of medical care services were up 0.8% for the month and 5.6% for the year.
The index for household furnishings increased 1.0% in August after rising 0.6% in July.
Apparel costs were up a moderate 0.2% and 5.1% for the year.
The index for airline fares decreased 4.6% after falling 7.8% in July.
Here is the trend in annual all-items and core inflation over the last year, showing the slight rise in core inflation even as falling gasoline prices have caused all-items inflation to fall from the June peak of 9.1%.
What this means for TIPS and I Bonds
Investors in Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities and U.S. Series I Savings Bonds are also interested in non-seasonally adjusted inflation, which is used to adjust principal balances for TIPS and set future interest rates for I Bonds. For August, the BLS set the inflation index at 296.171, a decline of 0.04% from July’s 296.276. The BLS called this “unchanged.”
For TIPS. The August report means that principal balances for all TIPS will decrease 0.04% in October, after falling 0.01% in September. However, year-over-year balances will have increased 8.3% by the end of October. Here are the new October Inflation Indexes for all TIPS.
For I Bonds. The August report is the fifth in a six-month series that will set the I Bond’s new variable rate, which will begin rolling out November 1 for all I Bonds. As of August, inflation has run at a rate of 3.01%, which would translate to an I Bond variable rate of 6.02%, lower than the current rate of 9.62%. However, one month remains. Oil prices seem to have stabilized this month, so it’s possible we will see a higher number. Here are relevant data:
Note: This is a corrected version. My first attempt had the inflation rate at 3.02%. You can see historic data back to 2012 on my Inflation and I Bonds page.
What this means for Social Security COLA
The August inflation report is the second of three — for July to September — that will set the Social Security Administration’s cost of living adjustment for 2023. The SSA uses a three-month average of a different index, the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), to set its COLA.
For August, the BLS set CPI-W at 291.629, an increase of 8.7% over the last 12 months. However, CPI-W actually fell 0.2% for the month. But remember, it will be the average of July to September inflation indexes — compared to the same three-month average a year ago — that will determine the Social Security COLA. A year ago, that average was 268.421. If we have zero inflation in September, the COLA will be 8.7%.
Keep in mind that one month remains, and the COLA calculation could push slightly higher.
Here is my updated projection:
What this means for future interest rates
The S&P 500 just opened for trading today and it is down about 2.3%, after flashing higher minutes before the August inflation report was released. The reason: The markets are losing hope — a false hope in my opinion — that the Federal Reserve would begin easing off on tightening as U.S. inflation drifts lower. Although the monthly all-items number looks mundane, this was an ugly inflation report, with prices increasing across the economy despite a quick and steep decline in gasoline prices. Core inflation jumped from an annual rate of 5.9% in July to 6.3% in August.
U.S. inflation remains close to a four-decade high. This is not the time for the Federal Reserve to back off on its clear, necessary goal: to bring inflation down to a level at least approaching its target of 2%. Today’s report all but guarantees a 75-basis-point increase in the federal funds rate next week.
Broad price pressures have proven resilient, causing the Federal Reserve to keep raising interest rates to fight inflation, said Kathy Bostjancic, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.
“Inflationary dynamics are improving and moving in the right direction,” she said. “But they’re still running way too hot for comfort, either for individuals and businesses or the Federal Reserve.”
The acceleration in inflation points to a stubbornly high cost of living for Americans, despite some relief at the gas pump. Price pressures are still historically elevated and widespread, pointing to a long road ahead toward the Fed’s inflation target. …
“If there was any doubt at all about 75 — they’re definitely going 75” at next week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting, Jay Bryson, chief economist at Wells Fargo & Co., said on Bloomberg Television. “We thought they’d be stepping it back to 50 in November. At this point, you’d say 75 is certainly on the table in November.”
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Feel free to post comments or questions below. If it is your first-ever comment, it will have to wait for moderation. After that, your comments will automatically appear.
David Enna is a financial journalist, not a financial adviser. He is not selling or profiting from any investment discussed. The investments he discusses can be purchased through the Treasury or other providers without fees, commissions or carrying charges. Please do your own research before investing.
Author’s note: This article ended up being “crowdsourced” through helpful (and accurate) criticism in the comments section. The Excel formulae have been edited to reflect these better techniques. Read the comments section for more great ideas.
By David Enna, Tipswatch.com
Although I have been investing in I Bonds for more than 20 years and have been writing about them for 11 years, I never paid much attention to the “exact” way interest is calculated. I figured, I’ve got a $10,000 I Bond earning 9.62%, so in six months I’d earn $481. Close enough, right?
But if you use TreasuryDirect’s Savings Bond Calculator you may notice very slight discrepancies, even after accounting for the three-month early withdrawal penalty. The Treasury’s interest calculation is ridiculously complex and possibly a relic of ancient times when $25 savings bonds were a thing.
I don’t think TreasuryDirect ever explicitly explains the complex process, but here is a good explanation of the I Bond interest calculation from the Bogleheads Wiki:
How interest is calculated
All bond values are based on the $25 bond. A $5000 bond is worth 200 times what a $25 bond is worth; a $100 bond is worth 4 times what a $25 bond is worth. If you have a $80 electronic bond at TreasuryDirect, it is worth 3.2 $25 bonds. The $25 bond value is always rounded to the nearest penny. Thus, a $5000 bond must always have a value that is a multiple of $2.00.
Interest is computed on a $25 bond using the composite rate divided by 2 for the given six month period. For individual months within the six month period, interest is computed using pseudo-monthly compounding to produce the same result after six months. For example, if the composite rate is 2.57%, the bond value after 1 month is $25 × (1 + 0.0257/2)^(1/6) = $25.05, and after 4 months is $25 × (1 + 0.0257/2)^(4/6) = $25.21, and after 6 months is $25 × (1 + 0.0257/2)^(6/6) = $25.32.
The values of a $100 bond would be $100.20, $100.84, and $101.28 after those same time periods. Note that this ignores the 3 month penalty for redemption within the first 5 years and the restriction on redemption within the first year.
You have to love the term “pseudo-monthly compounding” and you’d have to be a genius to apply these formulae to your holdings. I mean, what the heck is a ^? But the key factor is that the interest is applied to $25, rounded to the nearest penny, then scaled up to match your current I Bond holding.
If you bought $10,000 in an I Bond dated May 2022, this would be the formula you’d use in Excel to determine the value for the first month, effective on the first day of the month after your purchase: =ROUND(25*(1+0.0962/2)^(1/6),2) . The second month would be =ROUND(25*(1+0.0962/2)^(2/6),2) . The result for month one is $25.20 and multiply that by 400 to get the investment value of $10,080. For month two it is $25.39 for a value of $10,156. I worked my way through Excel to produce this for an I Bond purchased in May 2022:
Note: What is the ROUND factor? This came from feedback from readers. If you want to incorporate rounding to the penny into the “Cumulative $25 bond value” column, you need to add ROUND to the formula, as shown in the above examples. It is important to do this if you plan on incorporating that column’s calculation into an additional formula, because this is how the Treasury does its calculations.
Read the comments section for other helpful suggestions from Excel nerds.
I used TreasuryDirect’s Savings Bond Calculator to double-check these value amounts and the October amount (actually the value on November 1) did match the total of $10,236, which is the way TreasuryDirect reports values, minus the three-month interest penalty for early redemptions. Here it is, with a $1,000 investment shown because TreasuryDirect’s calculator is for “paper I Bonds only” and won’t allow an investment input of more than $5,000.
$1,023.60 x 10 = $10,236, which matches my calculation.
But the tougher question and still a “great unknown” is what happens after six months, when the I Bond’s balance compounds? I couldn’t find a single source that could explain the exact formula. So I devised on of my own. It works, but it could be wrong. Ponder that, math teachers.
Here is the calculation for an I Bond purchased in November 2021, earning 7.12% for six months and then 9.62% for six months.
In this calculation, I updated the baseline $25 to a value of $25.89 and the new formula for May became =ROUND(25.89*(1+0.0962/2)^(1/6),2) . The formula for June is =ROUND(25.89*(1+0.0962/2)^(2/6),2) . And so on. Using this formula, I was able to match TreasuryDirect’s last estimate of value, which is for October on my chart but actually for November 1. (I Bond interest is earned on the first day of the month for the previous month.)
$10,60.40 x 10 = $10,604, which matches my calculation.
Until your I Bond investment reaches 5 years, TreasuryDirect will always show the current value minus the latest three months of interest. You have earned that interest, but TD won’t show it to you, because if you sold out today, you’d get the amount they indicate.
In the case of the November 2021 purchase, that $10,000 I Bond is actually worth $10,856, even if TD shows you $10,604.
A Tip of the Hat to Jennifer Lammer
Lammer, CEO of Diamond NestEgg, is a YouTube video star who offers some well-explained, well-documented advice on I Bonds and other investments. She created this video to explain the complexities of I Bond interest payments and the very strange $25 baseline for all investments.
Her worksheet calculations don’t match mine — we used different starting months — but we come up with similar results, which as I love to note, would drive math teachers crazy. There is a lot of good information in this video, and Lammer makes a valiant effort to make something very complex sound simple. If anyone has further advice on this I Bond calculation, send it my way in the comments section below.
Feel free to post comments or questions below. If it is your first-ever comment, it will have to wait for moderation. After that, your comments will automatically appear.
David Enna is a financial journalist, not a financial adviser. He is not selling or profiting from any investment discussed. The investments he discusses can be purchased through the Treasury or other providers without fees, commissions or carrying charges. Please do your own research before investing.
‘We are, unfortunately, about to go through a period of prolonged, persistent high inflation.’
By David Enna, Tipswatch.com
There’s a lot of speculation in financial markets right now about an upcoming dip in U.S. inflation, triggered by a strong decline in gasoline prices. We saw some of that effect in July with all-items inflation flat for the month, even though core inflation rose 0.3%. We could see a similar result in August inflation, to be released Sept. 13.
So yes, U.S. inflation is falling from its 9.1% annual peak in July, and will probably continue to gradually decline. But by how much, and how fast? How long will it take to get to the Federal Reserve’s target of 2% annual inflation?
Here’s a clearly explained outlook from Campbell Harvey, a Canadian economist who is professor of finance at Duke University and a Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research in Cambridge, Massachusetts. In the video, Harvey explains why statistical and structural evidence points to U.S. inflation remaining at an annual rate of of at least 6.2% by the end of the year, even if deflationary pressures continue for several months. A more realistic number might be above 7.0%, he suggests.
“It’s kind of obvious looking at the data, but a lot of people don’t pick it up, is that we’ve already had year to date … 6.3% inflation. So if you think that inflation is going to end the year at 2 or 3 percent, it means that we are going to have strong negative inflation. … And I think that is very unlikely.”
Harvey also points out important changes in the way inflation was calculated 40 years ago versus today. The key point is that changes in the shelter index (which is weighted to be about 32% of all-items inflation) were designed to smooth out volatility, and that means inflation is printing lower than reality. The result: “There is more to come. And it is because of this smoothing.”
“The point is, this inflation has already happened, but it is not reflected in the CPI. And it will be reflected in the next year, or maybe longer. So anybody who is telling the story ‘oh well, this is just supply chain or geopolitical risk and we’ll quickly be back down to 2, 3 percent’ … No. You have to look at the actual structure of how inflation is calculated.”
It’s an excellent video. Give it a watch.
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Feel free to post comments or questions below. If it is your first-ever comment, it will have to wait for moderation. After that, your comments will automatically appear.
David Enna is a financial journalist, not a financial adviser. He is not selling or profiting from any investment discussed. The investments he discusses can be purchased through the Treasury or other providers without fees, commissions or carrying charges. Please do your own research before investing.
Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities 
At TreasuryDirect, you will never see "market value," so you'd have to calculate it yourself. I suppose that could come…